Columbus Blue Jackets vs Dallas Stars – Free NHL Prediction – Nov 05

Columbus Blue Jackets vs Dallas Stars: 22.5 shots allowed a game against a penalty kill at 72.5%

Dallas allows 22.5 shots a game, and the Stars have given up 2.33 goals a game despite conceding five in Washington on Tuesday. Columbus scored seven on Colorado the same night, and the two teams meet at Nationwide Arena on Thursday 5 November, puck drop 7:00pm ET.

The rematch comes five days after Dallas won 3-1 at American Airlines Center on 31 October. That result leads the season series 1-0, but it didn’t reflect the run of play: Columbus controlled more than 70% of the even-strength shot attempts over the final 40 minutes, and Jet Greaves faced only 16 shots.

Dallas is 9-5-1 with 19 points, level with Colorado in the Central. Columbus is 6-7-0 with 12 points, and the 7-2 win over the Avalanche came against a team on the second night of a back-to-back.

Home ice has mattered in this series. The home team has won four of the last five meetings, and Columbus had taken three straight from Dallas before the October game. Greaves also posted a 1-0 shutout of the Stars last January.

The betting history points to a lower-scoring game than Tuesday’s results suggest. The Under has gone 7-0 in the Blue Jackets’ last seven against teams with winning records, 8-1 in their last nine against the Central and 4-1 in their last five on one day of rest.

Dallas is around 1.79 on the moneyline, Columbus around 2.22, and the total is 5.5 goals. Columbus also has to play in Buffalo on Friday, so it may be managing its goalies across the two nights.

Columbus Blue Jackets: seven goals on Tuesday, 2.69 a game over the season

Columbus is scoring 2.69 goals a game even after the seven on Colorado, on 25.5 shots. It was at 2.45 before the Dallas game on 31 October, and the power play is converting 17.1%, which is a real step up from the 13.3% it posted at that point.

Kent Johnson leads the team with seven goals and 13 points, and he scored twice, including the winner, in a 4-3 overtime win in Philadelphia on 27 October. Zach Werenski has 12 assists and 13 career points against Dallas.

Matthew Knies joined from Toronto before the season and scored twice with an assist on opening night, and Cole Sillinger, Adam Fantilli, Sean Monahan and Mathieu Olivier have all scored at some point in a lineup that has more depth than its record shows.

Defending is the bigger issue. The Blue Jackets allow 3.15 goals a game, and a 72.5% penalty kill has given up 11 power-play goals, against five by Dallas. Cam Talbot was at .894 and 2.83 in six games going into Tuesday, and Greaves was 2-5-0 at 3.11 and .883 in eight appearances.

The record at Nationwide Arena is 5-3-0, comfortably better than the road form, and six of Columbus’ last 10 games before 31 October were decided by one goal. Isac Lundestrom is the one listed injury, and Erik Gudbranson, Danton Heinen and Emil Andrae were scratches on Tuesday.

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Dallas Stars: Oettinger’s 1.63 and a 4-1-1 road record

Jake Oettinger went into Tuesday with a 1.63 goals-against average and a .921 save percentage in 11 games. Dallas then won 6-5 in Washington, the kind of game this team hasn’t often played, and the 90.0% penalty kill has allowed five power-play goals all season.

The Stars are 4-1-1 on the road. Their results have come in sharp swings lately: they beat the Islanders 6-3, lost 5-1 to New Jersey and 5-2 to Montreal, then beat Columbus and Washington.

Mikko Rantanen leads the team with 18 points, eight goals and 10 assists, and Jason Robertson is level with him on eight goals. The power play converts 23.5%, and that’s the clearest edge Dallas has here against a Columbus kill at 72.5%.

The Stars take 25.4 shots a game, nearly identical to Columbus, and score 2.87 goals. They’ve been winning through shot suppression and goaltending instead of volume, and that’s why the five goals in Washington stand out in a season of low totals.

Miro Heiskanen has an upper-body injury listed with an estimated return of 4 November, so his status needs checking. Matt Duchene is out until January, Oskar Back until around 13 November, and Kyle Capobianco until late November. Esa Lindell, Radek Faksa and newly signed David Perron were all candidates to return last week.

Probable lineup Columbus Blue Jackets: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Dallas Stars: Not announced at time of publication

Free NHL Prediction: Columbus Blue Jackets vs Dallas Stars

Our prediction: Dallas Stars to win (1.79)

We’re taking Dallas at 1.79. The Stars are 4-1-1 on the road, they won this matchup five days ago, and their advantage on special teams is large on both sides of the puck: 23.5% and 90.0% against 17.1% and 72.5%.

Columbus’ 5-3-0 home record and four home wins in the last five meetings are the honest case against us, and the shot attempts on 31 October favored the Blue Jackets. We don’t think seven goals against a tired Colorado changes what this offense has been across 13 games.

Oettinger is the deciding factor. If he starts, as we expect, Dallas should hold Columbus near its 2.69 average, and the visitors have scored enough to win from there.

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