- 1 Minnesota Timberwolves vs Los Angeles Clippers: the first game without Edwards, against a 23-turnover offense
- 2 Minnesota Timberwolves: 54 rebounds a game, and a scoring load shifting to LaMelo Ball
- 3 Los Angeles Clippers: Garland’s 24 a night, and 23.3 turnovers that keep giving games away
- 4 Free NBA Prediction: Minnesota Timberwolves vs Los Angeles Clippers
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Minnesota Timberwolves vs Los Angeles Clippers: the first game without Edwards, against a 23-turnover offense 
Anthony Edwards was averaging 33.3 points per game, second in the NBA, when word came on Tuesday night that he needs an arthroscopic procedure on his right knee. The surgery is scheduled for Thursday and he’ll miss up to two months, which makes Friday’s game against the Los Angeles Clippers Minnesota’s first full game plan without him.
Tip-off at Target Center is 8:00pm ET on Friday, October 30, and it counts as an NBA Cup group game. Minnesota came into the week at 3-1, and its only defeat was a 127-125 overtime loss in Cleveland in which Edwards scored 47 on 19-of-33 shooting.
The Clippers are 1-2. They beat Sacramento 121-96 on opening night, then lost 125-117 to the Lakers and 108-101 in Oklahoma City. They host the Lakers again on Wednesday night before flying to Minneapolis, so Friday is their second game in three nights.
The sportsbooks still treat Minnesota as a heavy favorite. DraftKings has the Wolves at -9.5 with a total of 230.5, and the home moneyline sits around 1.29. Prediction markets are far less convinced, pricing Minnesota at roughly 65% to win, which is closer to a five-point favorite than a ten-point one.
We think that gap is the story of this game. Nine and a half points is a lot to lay with a team that has two days to rebuild its half-court offense, and the Clippers’ main flaw, ball security, is easier to fix in 48 hours than replacing 33 points a night.
Minnesota Timberwolves: 54 rebounds a game, and a scoring load shifting to LaMelo Ball 
Minnesota has averaged 122.0 points and allowed 105.0 through four games. The defense has done more of the work than the scoring average suggests: Miami scored 106 against the Wolves, Orlando 93 and Toronto 94.
The glass is where Chris Finch’s team has controlled games. The Wolves average 54.0 rebounds, and Rudy Gobert pulled down 20 in Cleveland despite going 0-for-9 from the field. He added 13 rebounds against Toronto and 14 points with nine boards in Orlando.
Without Edwards, more of the creation falls on LaMelo Ball, acquired from Charlotte in the offseason. Ball hit four of five threes for 15 points against the Raptors but turned it over seven times in Cleveland. Ayo Dosunmu, who had 14 points and nine assists in Orlando, Terrence Shannon Jr. and Isaiah Evans are all expected to see more minutes.
Jaden McDaniels has been the steadiest of the rest, with 15, 14 and 14 points in three of the four games and three blocks against Toronto. Donte DiVincenzo is still out with an Achilles injury, so the backcourt rotation is thinner than it looked in the summer.
Minnesota plays at Golden State on Wednesday night, the day before Edwards’ surgery. With him, the Wolves won their first three games by 25, 22 and 23 points.
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Los Angeles Clippers: Garland’s 24 a night, and 23.3 turnovers that keep giving games away 
The Clippers committed 26 turnovers in Oklahoma City on Sunday and still lost by only seven. They’re giving the ball away 23.3 times per game this season, and that number accounts for most of the 1-2 record.
Darius Garland has carried the offense. He’s averaging 24.0 points and 7.0 assists, with 30 on 11-of-19 shooting against Sacramento and 26 against the Lakers. In Oklahoma City he scored 16 on 7-of-17 but still handed out 11 assists.
Brook Lopez has given Tyronn Lue a second option inside, with 17 points and 11 rebounds against the Kings, 22 points against the Lakers and 15 against the Thunder. Keaton Wagler is averaging 13.0 points, and Kris Dunn leads the team with 3.3 steals per game.
The injury list is long. Brandon Ingram (heel and Achilles), Bradley Beal (knee), Max Strus (foot) and Yanic Konan Niederhauser (Lisfranc) are out until at least November 8, and Jordan Miller won’t return before March. Rui Hachimura (quad) was ruled out against the Lakers and is borderline for Friday.
Even so, the Clippers rank 10th in points allowed at 109.7 per game. Last season’s series with Minnesota finished 2-2, and both Clippers wins came by double figures: 115-96 in Minneapolis in February and 153-128 in Los Angeles in March.
Probable lineup Minnesota Timberwolves: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Los Angeles Clippers: Not announced at time of publication
Free NBA Prediction: Minnesota Timberwolves vs Los Angeles Clippers
Our prediction: Los Angeles Clippers +9.5 (1.91)
We’re taking the points. Edwards scored 45 in Miami, 15 in Orlando, 26 against Toronto and 47 in Cleveland, and Minnesota’s whole offense has been built around him. A 9.5-point spread asks the replacements to win by double digits in their first or second game together.
The risk is plain: if the Clippers turn it over 26 times again, no handicap is safe, and Minnesota’s 54 rebounds a game give it a route to extra possessions. But Garland, Lopez and Dunn kept the Clippers within eight points of the Lakers and seven of the Thunder, both on the road.
We still expect a Minnesota win at Target Center, by fewer than ten. At 1.91, the Clippers’ side of the spread is where the value sits.
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