- 1 Dallas Mavericks vs Houston Rockets: a 4-0 Houston team, Sengun’s back, and a back-to-back on both benches
- 2 Dallas Mavericks: Cooper Flagg’s 29 and 11 in Miami, and 19 turnovers a game
- 3 Houston Rockets: 120.8 points a game, with or without Sengun in the middle
- 4 Free NBA Prediction: Dallas Mavericks vs Houston Rockets
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Dallas Mavericks vs Houston Rockets: a 4-0 Houston team, Sengun’s back, and a back-to-back on both benches 
Houston beat Dallas 128-110 on opening night, with Kevin Durant and Jabari Smith Jr. scoring 30 points each. Nine days later the Rockets are still unbeaten at 4-0, and the rematch moves to American Airlines Center.
Tip-off is 8:00pm ET on Friday, October 30, in an NBA Cup group game. Both teams play on Wednesday, Houston at Milwaukee and Dallas at home against Oklahoma City, so Friday is the second night of a back-to-back on each side.
Alperen Sengun’s status matters more than anything else on the injury reports. He has scored 23, 29, 17 and 29 points in Houston’s four games, but he was ruled out of Wednesday’s game with low-back soreness, the first game he’s missed this season. Friday is the earliest projected return, and nothing has been confirmed.
Dallas has a list of its own. Dereck Lively II is out after foot surgery, Sergio de Larrea sprained his right knee in Miami, and Kyrie Irving was listed as questionable for Wednesday with left knee injury management. Caleb Martin (thumb) and Naji Marshall (illness) were also questionable.
The books opened Houston as a 4.5-point road favorite, with the Rockets’ moneyline at 1.60 and a total of 226.5. We side with Houston, and the reasons start with what Dallas does with the ball.
Dallas Mavericks: Cooper Flagg’s 29 and 11 in Miami, and 19 turnovers a game 
Dallas is 2-2, and both wins came on the road: 121-105 in Indiana, then 113-109 in Miami on Monday as an 8.5-point underdog. Cooper Flagg had 29 points, a career-high-tying 11 assists and a career-best five steals in that one.
Home has been harder. The Mavericks’ only game at American Airlines Center so far was a 122-106 loss to San Antonio, and they turned it over 21 times. Through three games Dallas averaged 19.0 turnovers and allowed 118.3 points per game.
Flagg scored 32 in the opener in Houston, and Irving added 15 in his first regular-season game since tearing his ACL in March 2025. Irving then scored 24 in Indiana, but his knee is now being managed game to game.
When Dusty May’s team gets a shot up, it’s been efficient: 51.0% from the field and 36.4% from three through three games. The issue is how many possessions end before a shot goes up.
Wednesday’s game against Oklahoma City opens a run of six home games in seven for Dallas. There’s no day off between that game and Houston’s visit.
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Houston Rockets: 120.8 points a game, with or without Sengun in the middle 
Houston has scored 128, 114, 121 and 120 points in its four wins and allowed 111.0 per game. As of last weekend, the Rockets ranked fifth in the league in offensive rating at 122.6.
Sengun has been the hub. He had 29 points against San Antonio in Austin, 17 points, 10 rebounds and seven assists in Atlanta, then 29 points, nine rebounds and nine assists in Monday’s rematch with the Hawks. The back problem dates to a charge he took in the opener against Dallas.
The depth showed in Atlanta. Durant scored 22, Reed Sheppard and Tari Eason added 19 each, and Amen Thompson finished with 17 points and 11 rebounds. Durant, now 38, averaged 25.0 points across the first two games.
Steven Adams is out with a calf strain, with Ime Udoka saying he’ll miss “a week or two”, and Marcus Smart is questionable with a forearm injury. If Sengun sits as well, Houston goes into Friday without either of its two main centers.
Eason was ejected in the first quarter of the opener for a flagrant 2 after shoving P.J. Washington. Houston still won that game by 18 points.
Probable lineup Dallas Mavericks: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Houston Rockets: Not announced at time of publication
Free NBA Prediction: Dallas Mavericks vs Houston Rockets
Our prediction: Houston Rockets to win (1.60)
We’re backing the Rockets on the moneyline. Dallas averages 19 turnovers a game, and Houston has the size and depth to punish that: four different Rockets scored 17 or more in Atlanta, and Houston beat this Dallas team by 18 with Eason gone after one quarter.
A Sengun absence would make this closer, and that’s why we prefer the moneyline to the 4.5-point handicap. Dallas also has the small advantage of sleeping in its own beds between games, while Houston travels from Milwaukee.
That edge doesn’t cover the gap in health. Irving is managing a knee, Lively and de Larrea are out, and the Mavericks have lost the only home game they’ve played. We’d take the Rockets at 1.60.
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