- 1 Minnesota Timberwolves vs Dallas Mavericks: a +10.6 net rating without Edwards against a Dallas offence still short of shooting
- 2 Minnesota Timberwolves: four players scoring 13 a night with Edwards in a suit
- 3 Dallas Mavericks: Flagg’s all-round load and a three-point shot that keeps misfiring
- 4 Free NBA Prediction: Minnesota Timberwolves vs Dallas Mavericks
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Minnesota Timberwolves vs Dallas Mavericks: a +10.6 net rating without Edwards against a Dallas offence still short of shooting 
Anthony Edwards had arthroscopic surgery on his right knee, announced on 27 October, and is expected to miss around two months. Minnesota have gone 4-1 since. At 7-3 they carry a net rating of +10.6, and they’ve done it with their best scorer in street clothes.
Dallas visit Target Center on Thursday 12 November, 8:00pm ET, with NBA TV carrying the game nationally. The Mavericks are 5-4 under Dusty May, hired as head coach on 23 June, and they beat Utah 112-100 in the NBA Cup on 6 November after two straight defeats.
Last season this matchup went one way. Minnesota swept the series 4-0, winning by 24, 13, 11 and 30 points, and Dallas finished 26-56. Both rosters have changed a lot since then, but the gap on this season’s numbers is still wide.
Minnesota’s defensive rating of 106.6 compares with 111.9 for Dallas. The Wolves average 49.2 rebounds a game to the Mavericks’ 44.7, and they shoot 37.3% from three against 33.1%. Against the spread, Minnesota are 9-1 this season and 6-0 on the road.
Rest is close to even. Dallas play Brooklyn on Sunday and Indiana on Monday, then have two days off. Minnesota host Utah on Sunday and then get three days before this game, with Chicago next on 14 November.
Minnesota Timberwolves: four players scoring 13 a night with Edwards in a suit 
Ayo Dosunmu has taken the biggest step. He’s averaging 17.3 points, 5.0 rebounds and 4.3 assists, and he led the team in scoring in both road wins last week: 21 in Houston on 4 November and 26 in New Orleans two nights later.
LaMelo Ball came from Charlotte in a four-team trade reported on 25 June, with Julius Randle and Naz Reid among the players going out. He averages 17.7 points and 6.1 assists on 38.4% from three. He scored 34 against Milwaukee on 2 November and five straight points in the 10-2 run that closed out the Pelicans.
Jaden McDaniels (17.1 points, 6.2 rebounds) had 23 in New Orleans. Jonathan Kuminga, who signed for two years in late August after Atlanta declined his option, adds 13.1 points and is shooting 42.6% from three.
Rudy Gobert’s 11.8 rebounds a game anchor the defence and the glass. Opponents shoot 32.2% from three against Minnesota, and the Wolves allow 107.7 points per game.
Donte DiVincenzo (Achilles) is out along with Edwards. Terrence Shannon Jr. (hip) and Joan Beringer (nose) were day-to-day after sitting out in New Orleans. Minnesota are 3-1 at home.
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Dallas Mavericks: Flagg’s all-round load and a three-point shot that keeps misfiring 
Cooper Flagg is averaging 23.9 points, 6.4 assists and 2.25 steals, and Dallas need all of it. Against Utah he finished with 21 points, 10 rebounds and seven assists. He had 26 points and eight assists in the 120-96 win over Oklahoma City on 28 October.
Kyrie Irving adds 21.4 points a game. He scored 35 with nine assists in a 116-111 win over Houston on 30 October, then went 9 of 27 in San Antonio on 4 November, a 112-111 defeat in which Victor Wembanyama finished with 52 points and 24 rebounds.
Shooting keeps holding them back. Dallas hit 33.1% from three on the season and went 9 of 32 against Utah. Their offensive rating of 113.2 trails Minnesota’s 117.2, and they turn it over 15.9 times a game.
The front line has helped. Washington is averaging 15.8 points and 7.8 rebounds, and rookie Morez Johnson Jr., the ninth pick in June, had 13 points and 17 rebounds against Utah. Dallas were still out-rebounded 61-50 in San Antonio.
Dereck Lively II (foot), Sergio de Larrea (knee) and Tarik Biberovic (heel) were all listed as out until at least 12 November, so their status on Thursday is uncertain. The Mavericks are 2-2 on the road.
Probable lineup Minnesota Timberwolves: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Dallas Mavericks: Not announced at time of publication
Free NBA Prediction: Minnesota Timberwolves vs Dallas Mavericks
Our prediction: Minnesota Timberwolves to win and cover the spread
We’re siding with Minnesota. A net rating of +10.6 against +1.3 is a big gap, and the Wolves have produced it without Edwards. Their 9-1 record against the spread shows the market has been slow to price that in.
The matchup favours them in the two areas where Dallas struggle most. The Mavericks shoot 33.1% from three and give up the boards, and Minnesota lead them on both counts. We’d concede that Flagg and Irving can win a game on their own, as the Houston and Oklahoma City results showed, but that’s rarely happened on the road.
No spread was posted at the time of writing. We’d back Minnesota up to around eight points, and we’d want the injury reports for Lively and Shannon Jr. before locking it in.
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