- 1 Milwaukee Bucks vs Los Angeles Lakers: a 1-8 home team on no rest against Doncic’s scoring run
- 2 Milwaukee Bucks: Herro and Jaquez scoring, and a defense allowing 124.1
- 3 Los Angeles Lakers: Doncic at 38.5 a night and a 4-0 run since Golden State
- 4 Free NBA Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks vs Los Angeles Lakers
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
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Milwaukee Bucks vs Los Angeles Lakers: a 1-8 home team on no rest against Doncic’s scoring run 
Milwaukee trailed Boston by 22 points at TD Garden on Wednesday, came all the way back and still lost 109-102. Two nights later the Bucks led Toronto at home, against a Raptors team missing Kawhi Leonard, Scottie Barnes and Immanuel Quickley, and lost 121-107. That’s five straight defeats and eight in nine games, and it leaves Milwaukee at 1-8 going into a week with four games in six nights.
The Lakers visit Fiserv Forum on Wednesday 11 November, tip-off at 8:00pm ET, at 8-2 and first in the Pacific. They’ve won four straight, the latest a 124-118 win over Portland on Friday in which Luka Doncic scored 53 points on 17-of-33 shooting and 14-of-18 at the line.
The scheduling is the first thing to understand. Milwaukee hosts Boston on Sunday, plays in New York on Tuesday night and then flies home for this game, the second night of a back-to-back. The Lakers play in Detroit on Sunday and Atlanta on Monday, a back-to-back of their own, but they get Tuesday off before arriving in Milwaukee.
This is the first meeting since both franchises lost their biggest name of the last era. Giannis Antetokounmpo was traded to Miami in a deal completed on 6 July, with Tyler Herro, Kel’el Ware, Jaime Jaquez Jr. and draft picks coming back. LeBron James left the Lakers for Philadelphia in free agency. Last season’s meetings, a 119-95 Lakers win in Milwaukee and a 105-101 Bucks win in Los Angeles, featured both of them.
No line had been posted when we wrote this. The numbers we do have, 121.8 points scored by the Lakers against 124.1 allowed by the Bucks through seven games, point to a game the visitors control.
Milwaukee Bucks: Herro and Jaquez scoring, and a defense allowing 124.1 
Herro has been the one consistent part of Milwaukee’s season. He’s averaging 22.3 points, 5.0 rebounds and 3.9 assists with 42.6% from three, and he had 25 in Boston and 23 with 10 assists against Toronto. Jaquez adds 16.8 points and 6.6 rebounds and is shooting 48.4% from three.
The rest of the rotation hasn’t followed. Rollins averages 11.3 points and 4.5 assists, Ware 10.3 points and 8.3 rebounds, and Kyle Kuzma 9.5. Against Toronto, rookie Burries scored a career-high 21 with 11 rebounds, but Milwaukee still lost by 14 as a home underdog.
Defense explains the record. Through seven games the Bucks allowed 124.1 points a night while scoring 111.1, a gap of 13 points per game, and their three-point shooting sits at 33.3%. They also play at the fourth-fastest pace in the league, which adds possessions for opponents to exploit.
The margins have been wide. Milwaukee lost 132-100 to Houston on 28 October and 136-111 to Cleveland on 31 October, then 112-100 in Minnesota, before the closer losses to Boston and Toronto. The record splits 0-4 on the road and 1-4 at home.
Taylor Jenkins has no major injuries to manage beyond two-way players and Bogoljub Markovic, who’s on G League assignment. The fatigue question is different: Herro, Jaquez and Kuzma will have played in New York less than 24 hours before tip-off.
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Los Angeles Lakers: Doncic at 38.5 a night and a 4-0 run since Golden State 
Doncic is averaging 38.5 points, 8.1 rebounds and 8.0 assists, on 49.5% shooting and 43.1% from three. He’s scored at least 37 in six straight games: 45 and 15 rebounds against Toronto, 42 with 13 assists against Miami, 40 in Sacramento, then the 53 on Friday. That kind of run changes how a defense has to set up, and Milwaukee’s defense has struggled with much less.
Austin Reaves gives the Lakers a second scorer at 23.3 points on 42.9% from three. He had 27 in the 138-117 win over Miami and 19 against Toronto. Walker Kessler, who arrived from Utah in a sign-and-trade on 8 July, averages 14.4 points and 10.2 rebounds on 71.8% shooting and had 15 rebounds in back-to-back games against Toronto and Miami.
The team numbers back up the start. The Lakers score 121.8 points a game and allow 113.9, with 51.2% shooting and 38.8% from three. They’re 5-1 at home and 3-1 on the road, and the only recent loss came at Golden State on 30 October, 112-95.
The weakness is the ball security. The Lakers turn it over 17.0 times a game and are minus 4.1 on the boards, and against a faster team those turnovers can produce easy points. Milwaukee’s pace is the one thing that could keep this closer than the records suggest.
JJ Redick’s rotation is close to full strength. Ziaire Williams returned from a foot injury on 2 November, and Sandro Mamukelashvili was listed day to day on one injury page. The likely starting five is Doncic, Reaves, Thybulle, LaRavia and Kessler, with LaRavia keeping his spot after Williams came back.
Probable lineup Milwaukee Bucks: Tyler Herro, Burries, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Kyle Kuzma, Turner
Probable lineup Los Angeles Lakers: Luka Doncic, Austin Reaves, Thybulle, LaRavia, Walker Kessler
Free NBA Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks vs Los Angeles Lakers
Our prediction: Los Angeles Lakers to win by 8 points or more
The Lakers moneyline won’t offer much, so we’d rather take a margin. Milwaukee’s last five defeats came by 32, 25, 12, 7 and 14 points, and four of them were by more than eight. This one comes on the second night of a back-to-back, after a game at Madison Square Garden.
The Lakers will have had a day off after Atlanta, and they bring the league’s hottest scorer into a building where the home team is 1-4. A defense allowing 124.1 points a game has no obvious answer for a player who’s scored 37 or more six games running, and Reaves at 42.9% from three punishes any extra help.
Milwaukee’s pace and Herro’s shooting could keep it close for a half, and the Lakers’ 17 turnovers a game are a fair concern. I still think the gap in quality and rest is too wide, and we’re backing Los Angeles to win by eight or more.
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