- 1 AZ Alkmaar vs FC Groningen: three eight-goal scorers against a tired home side
- 2 AZ Alkmaar: three straight defeats and five goals in their last five home games
- 3 FC Groningen: 26 league goals, but 14 of their 15 points against the bottom half
- 4 Free Football Prediction: AZ Alkmaar vs FC Groningen
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
AZ Alkmaar vs FC Groningen: three eight-goal scorers against a tired home side 
Groningen have three players on eight Eredivisie goals each: Brynjolfur Willumsson, Wout Weghorst and Soren Tengstedt. AZ’s leading league scorer, Ro-Zangelo Daal, has five, and that gap goes a long way to explaining why Groningen have scored 26 league goals to AZ’s 20 despite sitting three places lower.
The two meet at the AFAS Stadion on Sunday 8 November, with kick-off at 15:45 UK time. AZ are fifth on 20 points from 11 games, five behind leaders Feyenoord, and Groningen are eighth with 15.
AZ’s week has been a draining one. Juventus beat them 2-1 in Alkmaar on Thursday night in the Europa League, Mexx Meerdink’s 88th-minute goal coming too late to matter, and that was a third straight defeat in all competitions after a 2-0 home loss to Twente and a 1-0 defeat at Ajax. Leeroy Echteld’s players will have had less than 70 hours to recover by kick-off.
Groningen have had a full week off since their own setback, a 3-2 home defeat by Sparta Rotterdam on 1 November. Three days before that they went out of the KNVB Cup in the first round, beaten 2-0 by Emmen.
The head-to-head points two ways. Groningen won the last meeting 3-0 at home in March 2026, but they’ve lost on all five visits to Alkmaar since December 2021, including a 3-0 in May 2025 and a 4-1 in August 2025.
AZ are priced at 1.53 to win. I’m less interested in who wins than in whether both sides score, because the numbers on that question line up more cleanly than anything in the 1X2 market.
AZ Alkmaar: three straight defeats and five goals in their last five home games 
AZ started the season at full speed. They won all four league games in August, including 4-1 at Utrecht on 15 August and 5-2 against Go Ahead Eagles on 29 August, and Echteld was named coach of the month.
The results have thinned out since then. AZ lost 2-0 at Feyenoord, drew 1-1 with Willem II, beat Telstar 1-0 and drew 2-2 at Cambuur on 18 October before the defeats to Twente and Ajax, and the Twente loss came from goals in the 84th minute and in stoppage time.
Home advantage hasn’t counted for much lately. AZ’s last five home games in all competitions brought two wins, a draw and two defeats with five goals scored and six conceded, and over their last ten home matches they’ve averaged a goal a game while letting in 1.2.
The squad is stretched too. Stije Resink is out until January with a knee injury, Jizz Hornkamp and Jeroen Zoet are unavailable, and Lewis Schouten is doubtful after picking up a hamstring injury in the first half against Juventus. Kees Smit is back in training but isn’t expected to start.
Echteld has rotated heavily, keeping only around 62% of his starting XI from game to game over the last six. The defence has held up reasonably well in the league, with 13 conceded in 11 games, but AZ haven’t scored a league goal since the 2-2 at Cambuur on 18 October.
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FC Groningen: 26 league goals, but 14 of their 15 points against the bottom half 
Groningen’s season splits neatly by opponent. Fourteen of their 15 points have come against sides in the bottom half, while PSV, Twente and Ajax have given them a single point and put 12 goals past them, including a 5-2 win for Ajax at the Euroborg on 18 October.
The attack travels well. Groningen won 5-1 at Excelsior on 11 October, drew 2-2 at NEC on 25 October and 1-1 at Go Ahead Eagles, and their last five away games in all competitions produced 13 goals for and ten against.
That second number is the weakness. Groningen haven’t kept an away clean sheet, they concede 2.25 goals a game on the road and their away matches average 4.5 goals in total, which is the strongest single figure behind my pick.
They’ve scored in nine of their last ten matches in all competitions, and the exception was the cup defeat at Emmen, where Jack Cooper-Love scored both goals. With three players on eight league goals each, Dick Lukkien doesn’t depend on one man for his goals.
Lukkien has injuries of his own. Ryan Metu is out and Travis Hernes had an operation this week, while David van der Werff and Alvin Nordin are doubtful and M. Jeng is missing with a leg injury. Groningen have still named the same XI in their last two games, and their selection has been far more settled than AZ’s.
Probable lineup AZ Alkmaar: De Busser; Kasius, Goes, Hoedt, De Wit; Kwakman, Byskov, Koopmeiners; Stengs, Meerdink, Daal
Probable lineup FC Groningen: Vaessen; Hateboer, Blokzijl, Rente, Csinger; Clement, De Jonge, Schreuders, Van Bergen, Ondrejka; Willumsson
Free Football Prediction: AZ Alkmaar vs FC Groningen
Our prediction: Both teams to score (1.50)
Groningen have scored in nine of their last ten games, have three players on eight league goals and have scored 13 times in their last five away matches. AZ lost at home to Juventus on Thursday, have conceded three times in their last two league games and may be without Schouten in defence.
AZ’s own scoring is the doubt. They haven’t scored in two league games, and a heavily rotated side after a European night could struggle again. Against that, Groningen haven’t kept a clean sheet on the road all season, and AZ put five past Go Ahead Eagles at home in August.
Both teams to score at 1.50 is the pick. A tired AZ side may not win comfortably, and Groningen’s attack has given them a goal almost every week.
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