- 1 Middlesbrough vs Wolverhampton Wanderers: second against fourth, and the Riverside’s back door is open
- 2 Middlesbrough: 11 goals in four home games, but seven conceded in their last three
- 3 Wolverhampton Wanderers: three straight 1-0 scorelines and seven points on the road without Raul Jimenez
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Middlesbrough vs Wolverhampton Wanderers
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Middlesbrough vs Wolverhampton Wanderers: second against fourth, and the Riverside’s back door is open 
Seven goals conceded in three league games. That’s the number Kim Hellberg can’t get away from heading into Saturday’s Championship meeting with Wolves at the Riverside, kick-off 16:00 Paris time.
It wasn’t supposed to look like this. For the first few weeks of the season, Middlesbrough had the look of a side built on a sturdy back line. Then came a 4-3 win over Norwich, a 2-2 with Millwall and another 2-2 at Birmingham. Two comebacks, two points, and a defence that suddenly leaks.
The table still flatters Boro, and fairly so. They’re second, with one league defeat all season. Wolves sit fourth, holding a game in hand at home to Portsmouth later this month. Depending on what happens elsewhere, either of these sides could finish the weekend top of the pile.
Here’s the bottom line. This is the game of the round in the Championship, and both clubs know it.
Wolves arrive with a completely different profile. Their last three matches in all competitions finished 1-0, and they won two of them: away at Sheffield United and at home to West Brom in the Black Country derby. The only blemish was a League Cup exit at Everton. Cesar Peixoto’s side have learnt to win ugly.
So which version turns up? The Boro attack that scored 11 goals in four home games, or the Boro defence that’s conceded twice in each of its last three outings? The answer probably decides the market worth backing here.
Middlesbrough: 11 goals in four home games, but seven conceded in their last three 
Start with what Boro do well. At the Riverside, they’ve collected 10 points from four Championship games, the second-best home return in the division. Eleven goals in those four matches. That’s a side that knows what it’s about in front of its own crowd.
The results tell the story: 3-1 over West Brom, 4-3 over Norwich, 2-2 with Millwall. Every single home game has had goals in it. Lots of them.
Now the problem. Hellberg’s back line has shipped seven in its last three league matches, and the two draws only happened because Boro clawed their way back. Credit where it’s due for the character. But you can’t keep spotting opponents a goal and expect to stay second.
There’s also a tactical question hanging over this one. Hellberg has to decide whether to stick with a back three or go back to a four. If he keeps the current system, Sebastian Berhalter, signed from Vancouver in the summer, and Tommy Conway are both pushing for recalls in midfield and up front. Alfie Jones is the only notable absentee, so he’s got options.
Don’t forget the Crystal Palace game either. A 3-0 League Cup defeat at Selhurst Park was the one night this season Boro got properly outclassed.
The attack isn’t the worry. The defence is.
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Wolverhampton Wanderers: three straight 1-0 scorelines and seven points on the road without Raul Jimenez 
Wolves don’t do drama any more. Their last three matches in all competitions have all finished 1-0, and that’s a big change from a side that lost 4-2 at West Ham and drew 2-2 at Birmingham earlier in the season.
Their away record is decent: seven points from four trips. A 3-1 win at Preston in August, that defeat in east London, the draw at St Andrew’s and a 1-0 at Bramall Lane. Notice something? Wolves have scored in every single one of those away games. Eight goals on the road in four matches.
That matters on Saturday. This travelling side doesn’t struggle to find the net, even when the overall tempo has slowed down.
The team news is less comfortable. Raul Jimenez is still expected to miss out with a knee injury, and Fer Lopez, the Spaniard who scored the only goal against West Brom, has emerged as a doubt. Jordan James looks set to step in if Lopez doesn’t make it. At the back, Toti Gomes impressed in the derby, though Ladislav Krejci is back from injury and could come straight in.
Losing Lopez would hurt. He’s the player who links midfield to the forward line, and without him the supply into Armstrong gets thinner.
Still, this is a side that’s won its last two league games and keeps finding a way. Wolves won’t come to Teesside to sit back.
Probable lineup Middlesbrough: Vitek; Ayling, Malanda, Phillips; Brittain, Berhalter, Morris, Arfsten; Cozier-Duberry, Conway; Lankshear
Probable lineup Wolverhampton Wanderers: Sa; Trippier, Djiga, T. Gomes, Bueno; Andre, Munetsi; R. Gomes, James, Mane; Armstrong
Free Football Prediction: Middlesbrough vs Wolverhampton Wanderers
Our prediction: Both teams to score (odds 1.50)
The case builds from both ends. Middlesbrough have conceded in each of their last three league games, seven goals in total, and they’ve scored in every home match this season with 11 goals across four games. Wolves, meanwhile, have scored in all four of their Championship away games. Put those two trends together and it’s hard to see either side drawing a blank.
The match winner is a coin toss. Boro are slight favourites at 2.20, but Wolves’ recent knack for grinding out results makes that price thin. Both teams to score skips that question entirely and leans on the clearest pattern in the numbers: Boro’s goals at home and their leaks at the back.
Yes, Wolves have kept two clean sheets in their last two league wins. But neither came against an attack averaging close to three goals a game at home. The Riverside isn’t Bramall Lane. Expect goals at both ends.
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