- 1 Memphis Grizzlies vs New Orleans Pelicans: a 5-0 defense allowing 106.2 against a team that steals 13.4 a night
- 2 Memphis Grizzlies: 40% from three, 50.8 rebounds a game and a rookie running the offense
- 3 New Orleans Pelicans: one win, 121.6 allowed and a lead of 23 lost in Denver
- 4 Free NBA Prediction: Memphis Grizzlies vs New Orleans Pelicans
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Memphis Grizzlies vs New Orleans Pelicans: a 5-0 defense allowing 106.2 against a team that steals 13.4 a night 
Cameron Boozer had 18 points, 12 rebounds and 12 assists in Portland on Thursday, the first triple-double of his NBA career. Memphis won 124-103, outscored the Trail Blazers 66-45 after halftime and moved to 5-0.
Four of those five wins have come on the road. The Grizzlies beat Utah 123-103 at home on opening night, then won at Golden State 111-108, at Sacramento 123-112, at Utah 110-105 and at the Moda Center. They’ve allowed 106.2 points per game.
New Orleans arrives at FedExForum on Monday 2 November, tip-off 8:00pm ET, with one win from five games. The Pelicans lost their first four by margins of three, one, six in overtime and 13, then beat Sacramento 132-120 on Thursday for a first win under head coach Jamahl Mosley.
Both teams play on Saturday. Memphis hosts Sacramento, New Orleans hosts Atlanta, and both get Sunday off before Monday’s game, so neither team carries a scheduling edge into this one.
Health is the bigger variable. Ty Jerome and Scotty Pippen Jr. have been listed as questionable with back soreness and Quinten Post is doubtful with an ankle problem, while New Orleans remains without Jordan Poole (ankle) and center Yves Missi (knee).
This is the first of the season’s meetings between the two Southwest Division teams. The Grizzlies have already won once on the second night of a back-to-back, 110-105 in Salt Lake City on 26 October.
Memphis Grizzlies: 40% from three, 50.8 rebounds a game and a rookie running the offense 
Ty Jerome leads the team at 25.8 points per game, and he opened the season with 45 against Utah. If his back keeps him out, Memphis loses its main scorer, though the win in Portland showed the offense doesn’t run through him alone.
Boozer has taken on the playmaking. He averages 10.8 rebounds and 6.2 assists, both team highs, and Memphis finished with 32 assists against the Trail Blazers. Isaiah Stewart scored 18 off the bench in that game and Cedric Coward added 17.
Two team numbers stand out. The Grizzlies make 40% of their threes and average 50.8 rebounds a game, while New Orleans averages 43.0 rebounds.
The defense held Portland to 40.7% shooting on Thursday. Zach Edey starts at center, Stewart comes off the bench, and with Post doubtful Memphis keeps two physical bigs to throw at Zion Williamson.
Turnovers are the one number to watch. Memphis gives the ball away 15.8 times a game, and New Orleans is built to punish exactly that, with 13.4 steals per game.
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New Orleans Pelicans: one win, 121.6 allowed and a lead of 23 lost in Denver 
Jeremiah Fears had 22 points, 13 assists and eight rebounds against Sacramento on Thursday. Zion Williamson also scored 22, Trey Murphy III added 19 and Herbert Jones 16, and New Orleans won for the first time this season.
The Pelicans had led Denver by 23 in the first half on 24 October and lost 141-135 in overtime, a night after losing in Utah by a single point. Williamson is averaging 21.8 points.
The defense is where the record comes from. New Orleans allows 121.6 points per game, and only the 104-91 loss to Denver at home on 28 October came in under 120. Sacramento scored 120 against them even while committing 25 turnovers.
The Pelicans do force mistakes. Their 13.4 steals per game is a high figure this early in the season. Their own 17.4 turnovers per game cancel out much of that.
Shooting from deep is the other weakness. New Orleans makes 30% of its threes, and without Poole the team has one fewer guard who can stretch a defense. Missi’s absence leaves Karlo Matkovic and Derik Queen to handle Edey and Stewart inside.
Probable lineup Memphis Grizzlies: Ty Jerome, Cedric Coward, Jaylen Wells, Cameron Boozer, Zach Edey
Probable lineup New Orleans Pelicans: Jeremiah Fears, Herbert Jones, Trey Murphy III, Zion Williamson, Karlo Matkovic
Free NBA Prediction: Memphis Grizzlies vs New Orleans Pelicans
Our prediction: Memphis Grizzlies on the handicap
We expect the Memphis moneyline to open below 1.45, so the value is on the handicap. With no line posted at the time of writing, we’d back the Grizzlies up to -8.5, at a price of 1.45 or better.
Memphis has won four road games and one home game by an average of more than 11 points. Against a New Orleans defense allowing 121.6 a night and shooting 30% from three, the Grizzlies’ 40% from deep and their rebounding edge should open a gap that the Pelicans’ steals can’t close on their own.
Jerome’s back is the real risk, and we’d check his status before tip-off. Even without a big night from him, Boozer, Coward and Stewart scored 53 between them in Portland, and Memphis won that game by 21.
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