- 1 Dallas Mavericks vs Sacramento Kings: a winless defense allowing 126.8 visits a rested Dallas
- 2 Dallas Mavericks: Flagg at 25.2 a night and three straight wins, the last over unbeaten Houston
- 3 Sacramento Kings: 0-5, 25 turnovers in New Orleans and a rookie carrying the scoring
- 4 Free NBA Prediction: Dallas Mavericks vs Sacramento Kings
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Dallas Mavericks vs Sacramento Kings: a winless defense allowing 126.8 visits a rested Dallas 
Sacramento is 0-5 and has given up 126.8 points per game. The Kings have allowed 121, 128, 123, 130 and 132 points in their five defeats, and the closest of them was an eight-point home loss to Portland on 23 October.
The latest came in New Orleans on Thursday, 132-120, against a Pelicans team that hadn’t won a game all season. Sacramento turned the ball over 25 times that night. We count that as the clearest single number in this preview, because Dallas averages 9.0 steals a game.
The Mavericks host the Kings at American Airlines Center on Monday 2 November, tip-off 8:00pm ET. Dallas is 4-2 and has won three straight: 113-109 in Miami, 120-96 over Oklahoma City and 116-111 over Houston on Friday, the first defeat of the season for the Rockets.
The schedule tilts the same way. Dallas has Saturday and Sunday off after the Houston game. Sacramento plays in Memphis on Saturday night against a Grizzlies team that’s 5-0, then travels to Texas for Monday with one day in between.
Both injury lists are long. Dallas is without Dereck Lively II (foot), Santi Aldama (knee), Sergio de Larrea and Tarik Biberovic. Sacramento is missing Keegan Murray (ankle), Ben Simmons (Achilles), Dylan Cardwell (calf) and Maxime Raynaud (knee), which leaves Doug Christie short of size behind Domantas Sabonis.
This is the first meeting of the season between the two teams. We’d weigh the last week of results far more heavily than any history, and the last week points one way.
Dallas Mavericks: Flagg at 25.2 a night and three straight wins, the last over unbeaten Houston 
Cooper Flagg is averaging 25.2 points and 6.8 assists in his second season. He scored 33 against Houston on Friday, and he leads a team shooting 49% from the field.
Kyrie Irving had 35 points and nine assists in the same game. With Flagg and Irving both creating, Dallas doesn’t need a third ball-handler to run its half-court sets.
The frontcourt has held up without Lively. Daniel Gafford scored 18 against Houston, P.J. Washington pulled down 10 rebounds and averages 7.8 a game, and the Mavericks block 7.4 shots per night. Against a Kings rotation that blocks 2.4, the gap around the rim is wide.
The defense has tightened over the three-game streak. Dallas held Oklahoma City to 96 points on Wednesday and has allowed 111.8 per game overall, a number pulled up by the 128 Houston scored on opening night and the 122 San Antonio managed at home.
Turnovers are the weak spot. The Mavericks average 17.0 a game, and that’s the one area where a careless night could keep Sacramento close. The Kings force 7.6 steals a game, fewer than the 9.0 Dallas averages.
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Sacramento Kings: 0-5, 25 turnovers in New Orleans and a rookie carrying the scoring 
Darius Acuff Jr. scored 34 points in New Orleans, a career high for the rookie guard. De’Andre Hunter and Precious Achiuwa added 24 each, and Zach LaVine scored 21. Sacramento still lost by 12.
LaVine leads the team at 26.0 points per game. Sabonis is averaging 16.2 rebounds and 7.2 assists, but he also turned it over seven times on Thursday, and the Kings commit 16.8 turnovers a game as a team.
Shooting from deep has been a problem in every game. Sacramento makes 31% of its threes, and without Murray it has no obvious floor-spacer at forward. Hunter and Achiuwa have started next to Sabonis, which crowds the paint for Acuff and LaVine.
The defense is the bigger issue. San Antonio scored 130 on Tuesday, New Orleans 132 on Thursday, and Memphis made 123 at Golden 1 Center on 25 October. Opponents are scoring 126.8 a night against a frontcourt missing Cardwell and Raynaud.
Doug Christie’s team has one more problem: Monday is the second game of a road trip that begins in Memphis on Saturday. The Grizzlies were a 10.5-point favorite in that game, a fair guide to where the market rates this team right now.
Probable lineup Dallas Mavericks: Kyrie Irving, Max Christie, Cooper Flagg, P.J. Washington, Daniel Gafford
Probable lineup Sacramento Kings: Darius Acuff Jr., Zach LaVine, De’Andre Hunter, Precious Achiuwa, Domantas Sabonis
Free NBA Prediction: Dallas Mavericks vs Sacramento Kings
Our prediction: Dallas Mavericks on the handicap
No Monday line had been posted at the time of writing, and the Dallas moneyline is likely to sit below 1.45, so we’d play the Mavericks on the handicap instead. We’d take Dallas up to -9.5, priced at 1.45 or better.
The case rests on three numbers: 126.8 points allowed by Sacramento, 25 turnovers in its last game and 7.4 blocks a night from Dallas. Flagg and Irving combined for 68 points against Houston, and the Kings have allowed 121 or more in every game.
Sacramento will score; it put 120 on New Orleans. But the Kings will arrive on one day of rest after Memphis, against a Dallas team on two, and they lost by 27 in San Antonio on Tuesday.
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