- 1 Maritimo vs Porto: a perfect seven meets a promoted side that’s stopped winning
- 2 Maritimo: a fortress that’s lost its walls
- 3 Porto: 9-1 on the road and the second-best attack in the league
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Maritimo vs Porto
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Maritimo vs Porto: a perfect seven meets a promoted side that’s stopped winning 
Seven Primeira Liga games, seven wins, 18 goals scored, three conceded. That’s Porto’s title defence so far, and it’s the starting point for Saturday’s trip to Funchal, kick-off 19:00 Paris time.
The context matters. Francesco Farioli’s side already sit five points clear of Benfica at the top, and an eighth straight win would take them past last season’s seven-match opening run. They aren’t just winning. They’re doing it with a goal difference of +15 after seven rounds.
Maritimo are a different story. Back in the top flight after winning Liga 2, they opened with wins over Casa Pia and Famalicao, then went five without a victory: two draws, three defeats. They’re 11th on eight points, with eight scored and 12 conceded.
The data paints a specific picture here. Maritimo have shipped 11 goals in their last five league matches after letting in just one across their first two. They’ve conceded in each of their last six games. And they haven’t beaten Porto at home in their last eight attempts.
Porto have scored in 18 consecutive meetings with Maritimo. Read that again. Is there any reason to think that run ends on Saturday? The numbers don’t suggest one.
Maritimo: a fortress that’s lost its walls 
The home record says it all. One win, one draw, one defeat from three games in Funchal this season, and that lone win came on the opening weekend. Benfica visited and won 3-0 without much fuss.
Mitchell van der Gaag’s side did stop the bleeding before the break. A 1-1 draw at Gil Vicente, rescued by Israel Ayuma’s stoppage-time equaliser off the bench, ended a run of three straight defeats: 2-1 at Arouca, 3-0 at home to Benfica, 3-1 at Moreirense. A point, but not much more than that.
Defensively, there’s no sugarcoating it. Eleven conceded in five league games. That’s 2.2 per match, against opposition considerably weaker than the one arriving this weekend. Porto’s front line will see that number and smile.
Fitness is a mixed bag. Yellu Santiago remains out with a hamstring injury, while Rafael Fernandes, Nilton Varela, Rodrigo Andrade and Simo Bouzaidi are back in training. Adrian Butzke went off injured at Gil Vicente, and if he isn’t ready, summer signing Maurice Boakye could get a first start. Ayuma is pushing for his full debut too.
The long view offers no comfort either. Porto have won seven of the last ten meetings between these clubs, Maritimo just one, and the Dragons have taken the last three. Across 51 official meetings in Madeira, Maritimo have won only 12. History isn’t destiny, but it isn’t nothing.
A full house at the Barreiros will help. It won’t fix the back line. Not against this opponent.
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Porto: 9-1 on the road and the second-best attack in the league 
Three league away games, three wins, nine goals scored and one conceded. Porto’s travelling form has been every bit as ruthless as their home record, with wins at Rio Ave (0-2), Academico de Viseu (0-3) and Casa Pia (1-4).
The statement result came last time out. Porto beat ten-man Benfica 3-1 in the Classico on 20 September, with Victor Froholdt and Inbeom Hwang on the scoresheet after Gabri Veiga’s opener had been cancelled out by Alexander Bah. That win stretched the gap to five points.
There’s one blemish worth naming. After four straight clean sheets to open the league campaign, Porto have conceded in three consecutive league games, and they let in another in a 3-1 friendly win over Deportivo La Coruna during the break. That’s the one area Farioli will want tightened. It hasn’t cost them points yet.
The squad is filling back up. Nehuen Perez, Seko Fofana and Gabri Veiga have returned to conditioned sessions, and Samu Omorodion’s comeback adds another option up front after a cameo against Benfica. Chris Smalling could make his first matchday squad after starting the friendly, though Jan Bednarek and Jakob Kiwior remain the likely centre-back pairing.
They’ve also scored in every league match this season. Not one blank in seven. Against a side that’s conceded in six straight, that’s a hard trend to bet against.
Their only defeat in nine official matches this season came against Manchester City in the Champions League. Domestically, nobody’s laid a glove on them. This trip doesn’t look like the place where that changes.
Probable lineup Maritimo: Vieites; Juliao, Correia, Fernandes, P. Henrique; Andrade, Danilovic, Guzzo; Ayuma, Butzke, Tejon
Probable lineup Porto: D. Costa; A. Costa, Bednarek, Kiwior, Moura; Rosario, Froholdt, Veiga; Pepe, A. Silva, Sainz
Free Football Prediction: Maritimo vs Porto
Our prediction: Porto -1.5 Asian Handicap (odds around 1.86)
A straight Porto win is priced too short to be worth it, around 1.37 to 1.40. The handicap is where the value sits, and the case builds from every angle: 9-1 on the road, 18 goals in seven league games, a Maritimo defence that’s leaked 11 in five.
Porto have also won the last three meetings with Maritimo and scored in 18 straight. Against a home side winless in five and without a win at the Barreiros since the opening weekend, a two-goal margin is the logical result, not the optimistic one.
Porto -1.5 at around 1.86. The leaders have been winning by margins all season, and this is the weakest defence they’ll have faced in weeks.
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