- 1 Mainz 05 vs Bayern Munich: two suspensions and no league win at the MEWA Arena this season
- 2 Mainz 05: four defeats in five, and 13 goals conceded in that run
- 3 Bayern Munich: unbeaten in the league, but missing Musiala, Diaz and Gnabry
- 4 Free Bundesliga Prediction: Mainz 05 vs Bayern Munich
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
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Mainz 05 vs Bayern Munich: two suspensions and no league win at the MEWA Arena this season 
All three of Mainz’s Bundesliga wins this season have come away from home. On Saturday 7 November, 14:30 UK time, they host the league leaders at the MEWA Arena without two of their back line, Stefan Posch and Phillipp Mwene.
Mainz are ninth with 10 points from eight games: three wins, one draw and four defeats. Bayern are top on goal difference, level on 18 points with Borussia Dortmund after five wins and three draws, and they haven’t lost in the league.
Friday’s 4-1 defeat at Elversberg cost Urs Fischer far more than the result. Posch picked up two yellow cards, at 85 and 90+5 minutes, and Mwene’s card in the fourth minute was his fifth of the season, so both miss this game.
The prices reflect the gap: Bayern at 1.45, the draw at 5.75 and Mainz at 5.00.
The last meeting gives Mainz a small reason for hope. Bayern won 4-3 in this fixture on 25 April 2026, and across 34 meetings Mainz have seven wins and three draws against Bayern’s 24 wins. The current team is in worse shape than the one that pushed them in April.
Mainz 05: four defeats in five, and 13 goals conceded in that run 
Mainz have lost four of their last five, scoring seven and conceding 13. Werder Bremen beat them 3-2 at home with the help of two penalties, Bochum knocked them out of the DFB-Pokal 2-0, and Elversberg led 3-0 by half-time last Friday.
That Elversberg game ended a run of wins on the road. Fischer’s side had won their first three away league games, scoring 10 and conceding three, so the away form that kept them in the top half has now gone as well.
The back three we expected in recent weeks was Danny da Costa, Posch and Kacper Potulski. Without Posch, and with Mwene unavailable on the flank, Fischer has to rework the shape against a side that has scored 19 in its last five games.
Phillip Tietz is the club’s top scorer and Sheraldo Becker has been his partner up front. Benedict Hollerbach scored at Elversberg in stoppage time, which at least gives Fischer another option.
The rest of the injury news isn’t good either. Katompa Mvumpa (broken leg) and Dominik Kohr aren’t expected back until January, Ruoppi has a knee problem, and Nadiem Amiri is doubtful with his own knee issue.
We’ve looked for a case for a Mainz result and the best we can find is the 4-3 in April. They scored three times against Bayern that day, and Bayern have conceded in each of their last five matches, so a goal here isn’t out of the question.
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Bayern Munich: unbeaten in the league, but missing Musiala, Diaz and Gnabry 
Bayern have won three and drawn two of their last five, scoring 19 and conceding seven. Both teams have scored in all five of those games, and all five have gone over 2.5 goals.
Saturday’s 2-2 draw with Dortmund showed both sides of that record. Konrad Laimer and Dayot Upamecano put them ahead twice, Serhou Guirassy and Fabio Silva pulled Dortmund level twice, and the equaliser came in the 89th minute.
Recent wins include 6-1 against RB Leipzig in the league and 6-1 against Magdeburg in the cup, so the attack isn’t short of goals. Before Dortmund, the 2-2 with Arsenal on 21 October was their only game at the Allianz Arena this season that they hadn’t won.
The absences are the concern for Vincent Kompany. Jamal Musiala, Luis Diaz, Serge Gnabry and Saibari are all out with Manuel Neuer also sidelined, and Michael Olise is doubtful. Olise had been the club’s top scorer before the weekend, so his fitness matters more than any other single selection.
Harry Kane leads the line after winning the Ballon d’Or, with Lennart Karl and Tom Bischof likely to play around him if Olise isn’t ready. Jonas Urbig stays in goal while Neuer is out.
The wider market agrees with the outright price, with over 1.5 goals at 1.06 and Mainz or the draw at 2.62. Bayern’s last five have all gone over 2.5 goals, and Mainz’s own last five have produced 20 goals in total.
The fixture list adds one complication. Bayern are at Atletico Madrid in the Champions League on Tuesday, so there’s less recovery time than Mainz have had, and some rotation is possible.
Probable lineup Mainz 05: Not announced at time of publication (Posch and Mwene suspended)
Probable lineup Bayern Munich: Urbig; Stanisic, Upamecano, Kim, Brown; Pavlovic, Kimmich; Bischof, Karl, Davies; Kane
Free Bundesliga Prediction: Mainz 05 vs Bayern Munich
Our prediction: Bayern Munich to win at 1.45
Mainz have lost four of their last five, haven’t won at home in the league this season and will be without two of their regular defenders. Bayern haven’t lost in the Bundesliga and have scored 19 in their last five, and we don’t see that combination producing anything but an away win.
Bayern’s injury list and their midweek trip to Madrid are the two reasons for caution, and they’ve conceded in five in a row. We’d expect Mainz to score, as they did three times in April, but not often enough to take a point.
The 24 wins from 34 meetings support the same conclusion. A 3-1 Bayern win is our preferred scoreline.
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