- 1 Hamburger SV vs Borussia Monchengladbach: 41 goals conceded between two of the Bundesliga’s bottom four
- 2 Hamburger SV: two home wins from three, and seven league goals all season
- 3 Borussia Monchengladbach: one win in eight, 22 conceded and a long injury list
- 4 Free Bundesliga Prediction: Hamburger SV vs Borussia Monchengladbach
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Hamburger SV vs Borussia Monchengladbach: 41 goals conceded between two of the Bundesliga’s bottom four 
Hamburger SV and Borussia Monchengladbach have conceded 41 league goals between them in eight games each. They meet at the Volksparkstadion on Friday 6 November, 19:30 UK time, with Hamburg 15th on nine points and Gladbach bottom on four.
Hamburg’s total is 19 conceded against seven scored, and Gladbach’s is 22 conceded against 11 scored. Only one side in this match has shown it can win regularly at home, and that’s why the market has Hamburg at 2.35, the draw at 3.60 and Gladbach at 2.70.
The record at this ground points the same way. The last six league meetings in Hamburg since 2013 have produced four home wins and two draws, with Gladbach yet to win any of them.
Merlin Polzin’s side have lost their last two in the league, at Paderborn and at Eintracht Frankfurt, and also went out of the DFB-Pokal to Frankfurt in the same week. Alexander Blessin’s Gladbach took four points from their last two, the first three of them at Stuttgart.
That recent form has narrowed the prices. We think it has narrowed them too far, because Gladbach’s one win this season is the only time they’ve collected three points in eight attempts.
Hamburger SV: two home wins from three, and seven league goals all season 
Hamburg have played three league games at the Volksparkstadion this season. They beat Stuttgart 1-0 and FC Koln 2-1, then lost 5-0 to Mainz, which is the result that does the most damage to their goal difference.
Their away numbers tell a harder story. They’ve lost four of their five league games on the road, and the 3-2 win at Hoffenheim is the only time they’ve scored more than once outside Hamburg.
That Hoffenheim game came in a run of three straight wins that lifted them away from trouble. Defeats at Paderborn (1-0) and Frankfurt (3-1) have since pulled them back, and Terem Moffi was among the scorers at Deutsche Bank Park on Sunday.
Moffi leads the line alongside Otto Stange in our expected XI, with Warmed Omari, Bornauw and Torunarigha in a back three. Seven goals in eight league games leaves very little margin for that defence.
Polzin has several problems in attack and midfield. Fabio Vieira and Yussuf Poulsen have been ruled out and Nicolai Remberg is missing, though Nicolas Capaldo was expected back at centre-back around now.
Home form has held up beyond this season as well. Over their last 20 league games at the Volksparkstadion, Hamburg have won eight and lost six, and they’ve averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded in those matches.
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Borussia Monchengladbach: one win in eight, 22 conceded and a long injury list 
Alexander Blessin was appointed in late September to replace Eugen Polanski. Gladbach then lost 2-1 at FC Koln and 2-1 at home to Hoffenheim before the 3-2 win at Stuttgart on 23 October, and a 0-0 draw with Paderborn on Saturday made it two league games without defeat.
Gladbach have also lost 5-0 at Freiburg and 4-3 at home to both Mainz and Elversberg. They scored three in each of those home games and still lost both.
Their one league win came away from home, but it’s the exception. They’ve played four away, won that one at Stuttgart and lost the other three, conceding 12 goals in the process.
Joe Scally is the club’s top league scorer, and Shuto Machino scored at Stuttgart along with 17-year-old Wael Mohya. Scally, Machino and Mohya are all in the XI we expect, while the 2-0 cup win over Karlsruher SC gave Blessin a third game without defeat.
Injuries remain the main barrier to a recovery. Tim Kleindienst (thigh), Franck Honorat, Hugo Bolin and Fritz Fleck (all muscle) are out, Enzo Leopold has a cruciate ligament injury, and Jan Leszczynski is recovering from a knee problem. Kevin Diks has also been absent for personal reasons.
Odds on goals point to an open game, with over 2.5 goals at 1.62 and both teams to score at 1.53. Hamburg’s last 20 home league games have produced 56 goals, split evenly at 28 scored and 28 conceded.
The 0-0 with Paderborn was their first clean sheet of the league season, and it came at home. Keeping another one at the Volksparkstadion would be a big step for a side that has conceded three or more in four of its eight league games.
Probable lineup Hamburger SV: Fernandes; Torunarigha, Bornauw, Omari; Ouahdi, Adeline, Lokonga, Muheim, Wolfe; Stange, Moffi
Probable lineup Borussia Monchengladbach: Nicolas; Hashioka, Itakura, Chiarodia; Scally, Uno, Sander, Ullrich; Hack, Machino, Mohya
Free Bundesliga Prediction: Hamburger SV vs Borussia Monchengladbach
Our prediction: Hamburger SV draw no bet at 1.73
Hamburg have won two of three at home this season, Gladbach have lost three of four away, and the visitors have never won in the last six league meetings at this ground. Draw no bet at 1.73 gives us the home side with protection if the game finishes level.
Hamburg’s two home wins this season came by a single goal, 1-0 against Stuttgart and 2-1 against FC Koln, which is the margin we’d expect again.
Gladbach’s recent improvement under Blessin is real, and they’ve scored more goals than Hamburg this season. Against that, they’ve won once in eight league games and they’re without Kleindienst and Honorat, and we won’t overrate two games without defeat.
A 2-1 Hamburg win is the scoreline we expect, with both defences likely to concede again.
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