- 1 Los Angeles Lakers vs Toronto Raptors: Doncic’s back, a 102.5-point Toronto defence, and no Kawhi Leonard
- 2 Los Angeles Lakers: 53% shooting and a 36-point scorer, but a back that needs managing
- 3 Toronto Raptors: the steals and the rebounds that travel without Kawhi Leonard
- 4 Free NBA Prediction: Los Angeles Lakers vs Toronto Raptors
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
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Los Angeles Lakers vs Toronto Raptors: Doncic’s back, a 102.5-point Toronto defence, and no Kawhi Leonard 
The Lakers beat the Clippers 103-87 on Wednesday without Luka Doncic. He sat out with back tightness on the second night of their first back-to-back of the season, and six Lakers scored in double figures instead, led by Quentin Grimes with 23 and Collin Sexton with a season-high 21 off the bench.
That result took Los Angeles to 4-1, top of the Pacific Division, and it said something about the depth JJ Redick has to work with. The Lakers won the second quarter 31-6, including 16 straight points, and the Clippers finished with 24 turnovers.
Toronto arrive at 3-1 with a different kind of team. The Raptors allow 102.5 points per game, the lowest figure of either side in this game by more than 11 points, and they average 14.3 steals. They beat Orlando 129-99 on Wednesday without Kawhi Leonard, who is out for a period of weeks with swelling in his left knee after an MRI showed no structural damage.
The game is on Sunday 1 November at Crypto.com Arena, tip-off 9:00pm ET. It’s the first of two regular-season meetings, with the second in Toronto later in the season.
The schedule around it isn’t kind to either side. Toronto host Orlando again on Friday in an NBA Cup game and then fly across the continent. The Lakers play in San Francisco on Friday, come home for Sunday, then host Miami on Monday, so this is the first night of another back-to-back.
The market makes the Lakers favourites at around 1.69, with the Raptors at 2.00.
Los Angeles Lakers: 53% shooting and a 36-point scorer, but a back that needs managing 
Doncic leads the league at 36.0 points per game, shooting 48.4% from the field and 87.5% from the line, with 8.3 assists. He’s listed on the injury report with his back, alongside Ziaire Williams (foot), Cameron Carr (oblique) and Adou Thiero (knee), and Redick described Wednesday’s absences as precautionary.
The offence around him has been very efficient. The Lakers score 123.2 points a game on 53% shooting, the highest field-goal percentage of the two teams by nine points, and they’d put up 127 against Golden State, 125 against the Clippers and 132 in Utah before Wednesday’s lower-scoring win.
Wednesday showed how much shooting there is beyond Doncic. Sexton hit four threes and scored 11 straight points in the third quarter, Matisse Thybulle added four threes of his own for 15 points, and Austin Reaves scored 16.
The weak spots are on the other end of the floor and on the glass. Los Angeles allow 113.6 points per game and average only 38.0 rebounds, and Portland put 136 on them at home on 27 October, closing out a 136-129 win with a Damian Lillard three in the last minute. Walker Kessler leads the team with 8.2 rebounds, but nobody else is pulling much in.
Doncic is also turning it over 5.8 times a game. Against most teams that’s a price worth paying for his scoring, but against a Toronto side that lives on steals it becomes a real factor.
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Toronto Raptors: the steals and the rebounds that travel without Kawhi Leonard 
Toronto’s 3-1 start rests on how they defend. They’ve allowed 102.5 points per game, they average 14.3 steals against the Lakers’ 10.8, and they hold a big edge on the boards at 45.8 rebounds per game to 38.0.
RJ Barrett has been their main scorer, averaging 22.0 points on 50.7% shooting. He had 21 points in the first half alone against Orlando on Wednesday, and Scottie Barnes took over after the break with 16 points in the third quarter.
The depth was tested in that game too. Ja’Kobe Walter started in Leonard’s place and had 14 points and five rebounds, and Jamal Shead added 13 points and seven assists off the bench. Toronto took 35 threes and made 15, matching the 35-a-game target the team set itself in preseason.
Immanuel Quickley runs the offence cleanly, with 5.5 assists against 1.0 turnovers in 28.5 minutes a night. Barnes adds 7.3 rebounds, and with Nate Bittle listed out with a foot injury, the Raptors will rely on him and the wings to keep that rebounding edge.
The road is the question mark. Toronto are 1-1 away from home, with a 112-102 win in Washington and a 117-94 loss in Minnesota, the only game this season in which they’ve looked outclassed. Sunday comes after a Friday home game and a flight to the West Coast.
Probable lineup Los Angeles Lakers: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Toronto Raptors: Not announced at time of publication
Free NBA Prediction: Los Angeles Lakers vs Toronto Raptors
Our prediction: Toronto Raptors to win (2.00)
I’m taking Toronto at even money. The Raptors allow 11.1 fewer points per game than the Lakers, outrebound them by 7.8 a night and average 3.5 more steals, and those are the exact areas where Los Angeles have looked thinnest. A team that wins the turnover count and the glass gets extra possessions, and against an offence shooting 53%, extra possessions are what keep a team in touch.
Doncic’s back is the other part of the case. He’s on the injury report, the Lakers have already sat him once to manage it, and Sunday is the first half of a back-to-back with Miami on Monday. Even if he plays, his 5.8 turnovers a game play into the one thing Toronto do best.
The Lakers’ shooting is the risk, and Wednesday proved they can win comfortably without Doncic. I still think the price is wrong: at 2.00, Toronto’s defence and rebounding are worth backing against a home side that gave up 136 to Portland on this floor five days earlier.
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