- 1 Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts: a rested Jaguars side against a Colts roster being taken apart
- 2 Jacksonville Jaguars: 72.2 rushing yards allowed per game, the best mark in the NFL
- 3 Indianapolis Colts: three straight defeats and four offensive touchdowns since London
- 4 Free NFL Prediction: Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts: a rested Jaguars side against a Colts roster being taken apart 
Indianapolis traded All-Pro guard Quenton Nelson to Seattle and defensive tackle DeForest Buckner to San Francisco this week. Both moves came in the same mid-week clear-out, and both players are now gone four days before a divisional trip to EverBank Stadium.
The Colts had already fired general manager Chris Ballard on 19 October, the morning after a 26-20 home defeat to Tennessee, a team that hadn’t won a game all season until that afternoon. A week later they lost 16-10 in Minnesota, their third straight defeat, and they now sit at 2-5.
Jacksonville arrive in the opposite state of mind. The Jaguars are 4-2 and coming off their bye, and their last game was a 34-31 defeat to Houston in London on 18 October, settled by a 49-yard Ka’imi Fairbairn field goal with no time left. That loss ended a three-game winning run.
Kick-off is Sunday 1 November at 1:00pm ET, live on CBS. The forecast in Jacksonville points to possible rain and a breeze, which matters for the way I read this game, because both offences have had stretches this season where the passing game simply stalled.
The market has Jacksonville as 7.5-point favourites, with the Jaguars at 1.26 on the moneyline and the Colts at 3.95. The total sits at 46.5. Those numbers reflect a gap that has grown over the last two seasons in this fixture: the Jaguars have won five of the last six meetings, including both games in December 2025, played three weeks apart.
The more useful question for Sunday is whether a depleted Indianapolis attack can push this game into the high scores the total asks for, against a defence that’s been the stingiest in the league against the run.
Jacksonville Jaguars: 72.2 rushing yards allowed per game, the best mark in the NFL 
Jacksonville allow 72.2 rushing yards per game, fewer than any team in the league. That figure shapes this game more than any other, because the Colts’ offence runs through Jonathan Taylor and very little else is working for them right now.
The scoring defence tells the same story from a different angle. The Jaguars concede 17.3 points per game, third in the NFL, and before Houston put 34 on them in London they had allowed 17, 17 and 6 in their previous three outings. They’ve also picked off seven passes and sit at +5 in turnover differential.
Going forward, Jacksonville score 25.7 points per game, ninth in the league. Trevor Lawrence has 1,480 passing yards and 14 touchdowns through six games, tied for fourth in the league, and his last two outings brought 331 yards against Philadelphia and 306 with four touchdowns against Houston. He was held under 200 yards in two of his first four games, though, so the ceiling and the floor are both visible.
Parker Washington leads the receivers with 416 yards and four touchdowns, while Bhayshul Tuten has 388 rushing yards and four scores. Jakobi Meyers is questionable with a thumb problem, which could push even more targets towards Washington.
The one real worry sits on the offensive line. Left tackle Anton Harrison is out for the season with a torn right ACL, and safety Caleb Ransaw is on injured reserve. Montaric Brown, Jaylon Jones and long snapper Ross Matiscik are all questionable, but the bye week gave the medical staff an extra seven days with all of them.
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Indianapolis Colts: three straight defeats and four offensive touchdowns since London 
The Colts left London with a 30-13 win over Washington and a 2-2 record. Since flying home they’ve lost three in a row and scored four offensive touchdowns in those three games combined.
Daniel Jones has thrown for 1,398 yards with four touchdowns and seven interceptions this season. Those numbers explain why Indianapolis lean so heavily on Jonathan Taylor, who has 587 rushing yards and eight touchdowns. Taylor is still productive, but he now runs into the one defence in the league that has shut down ground games all autumn.
Alec Pierce is on injured reserve, tight end Tyler Warren is questionable with a groin injury, and the line has lost Nelson to the trade while tackle Jalen Travis (ankle) and guard Matt Goncalves (concussion) are both questionable. That’s a lot of change in front of a quarterback who has already thrown more interceptions than touchdowns.
Defensively, Indianapolis concede 25.7 points per game and have struggled to create takeaways. Arden Key is on injured reserve with a hamstring injury, Cam Taylor-Britt is also on IR, Sauce Gardner is working back from a calf strain and Buckner has gone to San Francisco. The front that’s left will be asked to contain Tuten without its most experienced interior player.
The Colts do hold a 4-3 record against the spread this season, which means they’ve kept several defeats closer than the 2-5 suggests, including last week’s six-point loss in Minnesota where they led 7-0 and 10-7.
Probable lineup Jacksonville Jaguars: QB Trevor Lawrence, RB Bhayshul Tuten, WR Parker Washington, WR Jakobi Meyers (questionable). Anton Harrison (OT) and Caleb Ransaw (S) out.
Probable lineup Indianapolis Colts: QB Daniel Jones, RB Jonathan Taylor, TE Tyler Warren (questionable). Alec Pierce (WR), Arden Key (DE) and Cam Taylor-Britt (CB) out.
Free NFL Prediction: Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts
Our prediction: Under 46.5 total points (1.91)
The Colts’ path to points goes through Jonathan Taylor, and Taylor runs into a defence allowing 72.2 rushing yards a game. Without Nelson in front of him and with Jones averaging well under a touchdown pass per game, I don’t see Indianapolis reaching 20 points; they managed 10 in Minnesota and four offensive touchdowns across their last three games.
Jacksonville should score enough to win, but the Jaguars’ Under record is 4-2 this season, and their defence had given up 6, 17 and 17 points in the three games before London. A mid-20s total from the hosts plus a mid-teens return from the visitors lands under the number, especially with rain and wind in the forecast.
The obvious risk is Lawrence repeating his 300-yard games against Philadelphia and Houston. I’d still take the Under at 1.91 over laying 7.5 points, because the Colts have covered four of seven and a late garbage-time touchdown hurts the spread far more than it hurts this total.
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