- 1 Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers: the league’s 30th-ranked scoring defence against a Green Bay side allowing 11 a game over three weeks
- 2 Detroit Lions: 32.8 points a game, and 5.6 yards per play allowed
- 3 Green Bay Packers: three straight wins and covers, with Jacobs back and Love listed as questionable
- 4 Free NFL Prediction: Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers: the league’s 30th-ranked scoring defence against a Green Bay side allowing 11 a game over three weeks 
Detroit allow 29.6 points per game, 30th in the NFL, and 297.4 passing yards per game, the most in the league. Across five games they’ve forced five turnovers. That’s the defence Green Bay face at Ford Field on Sunday afternoon.
The Packers have gone the other way. Over their last three games, all wins, they’ve conceded 14 at Tampa Bay, seven against Chicago and 13 against Dallas: 34 points in three weeks, or 11.3 a game.
Green Bay are 4-2 and second in the NFC North. Detroit are 3-2 and fourth, coming off a bye after a 45-21 win in Arizona on 11 October. Green Bay have already split two division games this season, losing in Minnesota and beating Chicago 31-7.
The market has moved towards Green Bay. The Lions opened as 3.5-point favourites and now give three, with the Packers at 1.96 on the spread. On the moneyline, Green Bay have come in from 2.80 to 2.42, with Detroit at 1.58. The total opened at 51.5 and has risen to 52.5.
Kick-off is 4:25pm ET on FOX. We think the line move is right and doesn’t go far enough, because the gap between these two defences is wider than the gap between the two attacks.
Detroit Lions: 32.8 points a game, and 5.6 yards per play allowed 
Nobody doubts the Detroit offence. The Lions average 32.8 points per game, second in the league, and 393.8 yards, fourth. Jared Goff’s passing game produces 279.6 yards a game, third-best, and the run game adds 114.2.
The win in Arizona showed all of it. Goff went 19 of 30 for 271 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions, Jahmyr Gibbs ran 25 times for 151 yards and Sam LaPorta caught five passes for 88.
Every Detroit game has been high-scoring. They beat New Orleans 31-30 and the Jets 31-24, and lost 41-31 in Buffalo and 32-26 in Carolina. Their four games before Arizona produced 61, 72, 55 and 58 points.
The defence is the reason. Detroit allow 5.6 yards per play and the highest EPA per play in the league through five games, and they’re among the worst in the league at stopping the run on a per-carry basis. They rank 25th in defensive DVOA.
The injury list makes it harder to fix. Linebackers Devin White and Damone Clark are on injured reserve, along with defensive end Payton Turner, defensive back Avonte Maddox and centre Cade Mays. Cornerback Rock Ya-Sin is questionable with a hamstring problem.
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Free for 2 weeks.
Green Bay Packers: three straight wins and covers, with Jacobs back and Love listed as questionable 
Green Bay’s season started badly. They lost 39-22 in Minnesota after leading by 12 going into the fourth quarter, and lost 35-14 at home to Atlanta in Week 3. Since the Atlanta defeat they’ve won three straight, and covered the spread in all three.
The defence is behind that. Green Bay allow 307.7 yards a game, tenth in the league, and 20.8 points across the season, a figure the last three weeks have dragged down. They lead the league in defensive DVOA and have the highest coverage grade, which lines up directly against Goff’s passing game.
The weakness is on the ground. The Packers average 59.8 rushing yards per game, last in the NFL. Against Dallas, Pierre Strong led them with 11 carries for 28 yards. Josh Jacobs returned to practice on Wednesday and is expected to play, his first game after weeks away from the team.
Jordan Love is listed as questionable with a back problem. Against Dallas he went 23 of 41 for 276 yards with a touchdown and an interception, and Matthew Golden caught six passes for 104 yards. Over the last three games Love has averaged 8.2 yards per attempt with a 101.8 passer rating.
Green Bay have also won twice on the road, 20-17 at the Jets and 17-14 at Tampa Bay. Defensive tackle Javon Hargrave and receiver Jayden Reed are on injured reserve, and guard Aaron Banks is questionable with a toe injury.
Probable lineup Detroit Lions: QB Jared Goff, RB Jahmyr Gibbs, TE Sam LaPorta (full depth chart not announced at time of publication)
Probable lineup Green Bay Packers: QB Jordan Love (questionable), RB Josh Jacobs, WR Matthew Golden (full depth chart not announced at time of publication)
Free NFL Prediction: Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers
Our prediction: Green Bay Packers +3 at 1.96
We’re taking the points with Green Bay. The Packers’ defence has allowed 34 points in three games and ranks first in DVOA, while Detroit’s has allowed 29.6 a game and the most passing yards in the league.
Detroit’s offence will score, and we’re not arguing otherwise: 32.8 points a game and 45 in Arizona last time out. But the Lions have conceded at least 21 in every game this season, and Green Bay only need to stay within three. Jacobs’ return gives them a ground game they haven’t had, against a defence that struggles to stop the run.
Love’s back is the risk, and we’d look again at this pick if he’s ruled out. If he plays, we expect Green Bay to keep this within a field goal at worst, and the move from +3.5 to +3 tells us we’re not alone in that view.
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