- 1 Atlanta Falcons vs San Francisco 49ers: 6-0 and +67, against a host that has lost three straight at home
- 2 Atlanta Falcons: Bijan Robinson at 5.8 yards a carry, and a defence giving up 25.5 points
- 3 San Francisco 49ers: Purdy at 118.1, and five sacks conceded in six games
- 4 Free NFL Prediction: Atlanta Falcons vs San Francisco 49ers
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Atlanta Falcons vs San Francisco 49ers: 6-0 and +67, against a host that has lost three straight at home 
San Francisco 49ers led Washington 23-3 on Monday night and won 23-17. The 49ers had more than 300 yards in the first half, then managed three first downs and 72 yards after the break as penalties piled up and the Commanders came back.
It was still a sixth straight win. San Francisco 49ers are 6-0 with a point differential of +67, the best in the league, and they lead the NFL in passer rating, third-down conversion rate and red-zone conversion.
Atlanta are 2-4. They lost 31-23 to Chicago last Sunday after trailing 31-7 late in the third quarter, and they’ve now lost three straight home games at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
The schedule is the main thing working against the visitors. San Francisco 49ers played on Monday, fly across the country and kick off at 1:00pm ET, which is 10am on the body clock of a West Coast team. They’ve played only one true road game so far, at Seattle, after opening the season in Melbourne. A bye follows in Week 8.
The 49ers are 3.5-point favourites at 1.91, with the total at 49.5. We think the gap between the two sides is bigger than one short week can close.
Atlanta Falcons: Bijan Robinson at 5.8 yards a carry, and a defence giving up 25.5 points 
Atlanta’s offence works through the run. The Falcons have 897 rushing yards at 5.07 per carry, third in the league, and Bijan Robinson has 641 of them at 5.8 a carry.
Michael Penix Jr. has been efficient since coming back. In four games he’s completed 71 of 110 passes for 944 yards, six touchdowns and one interception, a 106.0 rating. Against Chicago he threw for 225 yards and three touchdowns, two of them to Kyle Pitts. Drake London has 550 receiving yards.
Even so, the Chicago game exposed how Atlanta play from behind. Trailing early, they handed the ball off on only 24% of plays and had it for under 20 minutes. San Francisco 49ers built a 20-point lead on Washington on Monday, and that game state is where Atlanta’s offence has struggled most.
The defence is the bigger concern. Atlanta allow 25.5 points per game and carry a turnover margin of -5. They’re near the top of the league in pressure rate and quarterback hits while blitzing at the fourth-lowest rate, but they’ve been inconsistent in the red zone.
Their best day came on the road. Atlanta beat Green Bay 35-14 at Lambeau on 24 September, scoring 27 unanswered points after falling 7-0 behind.
The injury list is long. A.J. Terrell Jr. is on injured reserve, as are linebacker JD Bertrand and outside linebacker Jalon Walker, while defensive end James Pearce Jr. is suspended. Kevin Stefanski’s side also reshuffled the quarterback room this week, signing Andy Dalton and releasing Cooper Rush.
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San Francisco 49ers: Purdy at 118.1, and five sacks conceded in six games 
Brock Purdy has completed 119 of 171 passes for 1,460 yards, 14 touchdowns and two interceptions. His 118.1 passer rating leads the league, and on Monday he went 21 of 29 for 264 yards and a touchdown.
San Francisco 49ers score 29.5 points per game and gain 6.31 yards per play. They’ve scored 23 touchdowns, tied with Buffalo for the most, and allowed 10. Christian McCaffrey ran for two touchdowns against Washington.
The offensive line has given up five sacks in six games, the fewest in the NFL. That matters against an Atlanta front that gets pressure without blitzing, because Purdy has had time all season and the Falcons’ rush will have to win one-on-one.
The run defence lines up against Atlanta’s strength. San Francisco 49ers allow 3.6 yards per carry and 90.2 rushing yards per game, and they hold opponents to a 50% red-zone conversion rate. If Robinson is held near that average, Atlanta lose the thing their offence is built on.
The receiver room is thin. Ricky Pearsall, Christian Kirk and Demarcus Robinson are all out long-term, and cornerback Nate Hobbs is out as well. No game-status designations had been filed for either team at the time of writing.
Probable lineup Atlanta Falcons: QB Michael Penix Jr., RB Bijan Robinson, WR Drake London, TE Kyle Pitts (full depth chart not announced at time of publication)
Probable lineup San Francisco 49ers: QB Brock Purdy, RB Christian McCaffrey, TE George Kittle (full depth chart not announced at time of publication)
Free NFL Prediction: Atlanta Falcons vs San Francisco 49ers
Our prediction: San Francisco 49ers -3.5 at 1.91
We’re backing San Francisco to win by four or more. The 49ers are +67 through six games, lead the league in the three efficiency measures that decide close games (passer rating, third downs, red zone) and have conceded five sacks all season.
The short week and the early kick-off are a fair reason for caution, and the second half against Washington showed what a tired San Francisco can look like. But Atlanta have lost three straight at home, allow 25.5 points a game and sit at -5 in turnover margin.
The Falcons need Robinson to run for over 100 yards to stay in this, against a defence allowing 3.6 a carry. We expect San Francisco to build a lead, force Atlanta away from the run and finish clear of the 3.5-point line.
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