- 1 Levante vs Sevilla: a home record that bites against an away record that won’t crack
- 2 Levante: one win in six, and only one striker in form
- 3 Sevilla: unbeaten on the road and comfortable without the ball
- 4 Free La Liga Prediction: Levante vs Sevilla
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Levante vs Sevilla: a home record that bites against an away record that won’t crack 
One win from six league games. That’s Levante’s return so far, and it’s the reason they sit 17th, hovering just above the bottom three going into Monday night’s meeting with Sevilla at the Ciutat de Valencia. Kick-off is at 21:00 Paris time, and it closes out the eighth round of La Liga.
Sevilla arrive from a very different place. Fifth in the table, 13 points from seven games, four wins, one draw and two defeats. Both of those defeats came at the Ramon Sanchez-Pizjuan, against Atletico Madrid and Barcelona. On the road, they haven’t lost at all.
The data paints a specific picture here. Levante are a side that struggles to win anywhere except at home, and even there the numbers have a catch. They’ve won seven of their previous nine home league games, with one draw and one defeat. That defeat came in their most recent outing at the Ciutat, a 4-2 loss to Barcelona.
Then there’s the head-to-head, which doesn’t sit comfortably with the table. Levante did the league double over Sevilla last season: 3-0 at the Pizjuan, then 2-0 at home in April, with Ivan Romero scoring both goals. Sevilla fans won’t have forgotten that.
So which numbers carry more weight? Last season’s results, or this season’s form? We lean towards the second, and the reasons run through both squads.
One more piece of context. Luis Garcia Plaza is in his first full season in charge of Sevilla, and he’s a familiar face at this club. This is a return to known ground for him, with a team that doesn’t give much away on the road.
Levante: one win in six, and only one striker in form 
That 5-2 win over Real Betis on matchday three looked like the start of something. It wasn’t. Levante followed it with a 0-0 draw at newly promoted Malaga, the 4-2 home defeat to Barcelona and a 3-1 loss at Villarreal before the international break.
Three goalless draws in six league games. That tells you everything you need to know about the attack when Ivan Romero isn’t scoring.
Romero is the exception. He’s scored in each of Levante’s last two league games and he’s the man Luis Castro will build around again. Without him finding the net, the supply line looks thin, and there’s no obvious second source of goals in this squad.
The injury list doesn’t help. Hugo Sotelo is still out with a knee sprain. Karl Etta Eyong is close to returning from a muscle problem, but he’d be arriving right at the limit for this squad. Ifeanyi Ndukwe, on loan from Liverpool, and Nacho Perez both spent the break with their national youth sides and may start on the bench.
The home record is real, credit where it’s due. Seven wins in nine is a fortress by any measure. But the most recent home game was the Barcelona defeat, and four goals conceded in front of their own fans makes for uncomfortable reading.
Castro has had three weeks to prepare. No major changes are expected to the eleven. That’s stability. It’s also a side that hasn’t won since the middle of September.
no renewal
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Sevilla: unbeaten on the road and comfortable without the ball 
Seven points from three away games. Two wins, one draw, zero defeats. Sevilla are one of only four La Liga teams who haven’t lost on their travels this season, and that’s the stat that frames this trip.
The away results aren’t flukes either. They won 3-1 at Athletic Club, drew 1-1 at Espanyol and won 1-0 at Deportivo La Coruna. That last one followed a 1-0 home win over Valencia. Two clean sheets in a row, two narrow wins, the hallmarks of a side that knows what it’s about.
The 3-1 home defeat to Barcelona before the break stung. Youssouf Fofana put Sevilla ahead with his first La Liga goal, then Raphinha scored a hat-trick and that was that. Losing to the leaders doesn’t change the bigger picture, though. Sevilla’s two defeats have come against the top two.
Team news is mixed. Marcao is out after picking up a muscle injury in a friendly against Aston Villa at the start of the month. Lucas Stassin is racing to recover from an adductor issue. The good news is Ruben Vargas, back in the matchday squad after missing six league games with a knee problem.
The spine looks settled. Vlachodimos in goal, Kike Salas and Castrin at centre-back, Agoume and Kochorashvili sitting in front of them with Fofana given licence to push on. Robbie Ure leads the line if Stassin isn’t ready.
History in this ground also favours them over a longer stretch. Sevilla have won three of their last five visits to the Ciutat de Valencia, scoring at least three goals in two of those wins. Last season’s 2-0 defeat here was the exception, not the rule.
Probable lineup Levante: Ryan; Toljan, De la Fuente, Mandi, Manu Sanchez; Olasagasti, Oriol Rey, Bardeli; Brugui, Thiago Fernandez, Ivan Romero
Probable lineup Sevilla: Vlachodimos; Juan Iglesias, Castrin, Kike Salas, Suazo; Kochorashvili, Agoume, Fofana; Miguel Sierra, Felix Correia, Robbie Ure
Free La Liga Prediction: Levante vs Sevilla
Our prediction: Sevilla to win (2.79)
Break down the numbers and a clear edge emerges for Sevilla. Thirteen points against a side with one win, an unbeaten away record against a home team that just conceded four, and two straight clean sheets before Barcelona came to town.
Levante’s home record and last season’s double are the reasons this isn’t a short price. We respect both. But Levante’s attack leans almost entirely on Ivan Romero, and three goalless draws in six games suggest they’ll find it hard to break down a side that’s been this organised away from home.
At 2.79, Sevilla offer value. They’ve already won at Athletic and Deportivo this season, and with Ruben Vargas back in the squad, they’ve got one more way to hurt a Levante defence that shipped four the last time it played at home.
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