- 1 Leeds United vs Manchester United: an Elland Road fortress against a club in turmoil
- 2 Leeds United: unbeaten in eight at Elland Road with five clean sheets
- 3 Manchester United: five without a win and short of full-backs
- 4 Free Premier League Prediction: Leeds United vs Manchester United
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Leeds United vs Manchester United: an Elland Road fortress against a club in turmoil 
Leeds United sit above Manchester United going into a Roses derby. Read that again, because it doesn’t happen often.
Daniel Farke’s side are seventh with nine points, level with Liverpool and a single point off the top four, while Michael Carrick’s men arrive at Elland Road on Sunday with one league win from six.
The timing couldn’t be worse for the visitors. United haven’t won in five matches across all competitions since beating Sabah 4-0 on 10 September, losing three and drawing two.
Tuesday’s 2-0 defeat to Atletico Madrid was the latest blow: the first goal went in after 53 seconds, and Leny Yoro was sent off in the second half.
Then came the noise. Lisandro Martinez went public after that game, aiming his frustration at director of football Jason Wilcox over a lack of investment. He’s since met the hierarchy and apologised for the timing and the public nature of his comments. Carrick says the matter’s closed and the defender is in the squad for Sunday.
Leeds, by contrast, have something United haven’t had for a while: a settled identity. They lost 2-1 at Arsenal last weekend, but that was their first Premier League defeat of the season. They’d actually led through James Justin shortly after the break before the game turned in an eight-minute spell.
There’s a historical echo here too. Ruben Amorim’s January trip to Leeds turned out to be his last match in charge of United.
Nobody at the club will enjoy that comparison hanging over Carrick, but it’s there, and it adds weight to a fixture that already carries plenty.
So what does all this tell us? A home side with a clear plan and a loud crowd, against an away side with poor results, a patched-up defence and a manager under real scrutiny. On paper, it’s not hard to see who goes in with the advantage.
Leeds United: unbeaten in eight at Elland Road with five clean sheets 
Eight competitive matches at Elland Road without defeat. Five wins, five clean sheets. That’s the record United walk into, and it isn’t something you put together by accident.
The 4-1 win over Newcastle showed what Farke’s side can do when the crowd gets going. The 0-0 against Crystal Palace showed the other side of them: when the attack doesn’t click, they can still grind out a point. On the road they’ve been tidy as well, winning 1-0 at Nottingham Forest and drawing 1-1 at Brighton.
The one ugly result came outside the league, a 6-3 defeat at Chelsea. It happened, and it’s worth remembering. But in the Premier League the defence has generally held its shape, and the Arsenal defeat was decided by fine margins rather than a collapse.
Team news is a mixed bag. Joe Rodon is out with a hamstring injury and is still a few weeks from returning, so a back three of James Justin, Nico Elvedi and Tarik Muharemovic looks likely. Mateo Joseph is still working back from a cruciate ligament injury.
There’s better news on the flank. Dan James resumed training on Thursday, and Farke admitted there’s a chance he’s involved. Even off the bench, his pace against a stretched United back line could be a real weapon. Up front, Dominic Calvert-Lewin should lead the line with Noah Okafor and Anton Stach in support.
Can Leeds handle being the side expected to win? It’s a different kind of pressure. Still, this group sets the tempo at home, and that intensity is exactly what a fragile opponent struggles to live with.
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Manchester United: five without a win and short of full-backs 
Patrick Dorgu is out with a hamstring injury. Noussair Mazraoui has only been involved in small parts of training. Luke Shaw faces a late fitness call. That’s United’s full-back situation in a nutshell, and it’s a genuine worry at a ground where the hosts love to attack the wide areas.
If neither Mazraoui nor Shaw makes it, Diogo Dalot is expected to switch to left-back with Yoro on the right, alongside Harry Maguire and Martinez. It’s a makeshift back four. Not a disaster on paper, but it hardly inspires confidence.
The away numbers make for uncomfortable reading. No wins from four trips this season, two defeats, and two goals conceded on three of those occasions. The 2-0 loss at Hull set the tone early, and draws at Everton (2-2) and Fulham (1-1) haven’t changed the picture much.
Up front, Benjamin Sesko is missing again with a lower-leg problem, so Bryan Mbeumo is likely to play through the middle with Amad Diallo, Bruno Fernandes and Matheus Cunha behind him. There’s quality in that group. The 5-2 win over Ipswich proved this attack can click when it’s allowed to.
In midfield, Kobbie Mainoo faces a late test and Manuel Ugarte is still recovering from the ACL injury he suffered in the summer, so Carlos Baleba and Youri Tielemans should form the double pivot. Carrick has talked up the mood in the camp, saying the squad is in a better place than he’s seen it for a while.
The results haven’t caught up with that message. This is the club’s poorest start since 1986, they’re already out of the Carabao Cup, and the league table doesn’t lie. And Leeds is waiting for them !
Probable lineup Leeds United: Trafford; Muharemovic, Elvedi, Justin; Bogle, Ampadu, Tanaka, Gudmundsson; Stach, Okafor; Calvert-Lewin
Probable lineup Manchester United: Lammens; Yoro, Maguire, Martinez, Dalot; Tielemans, Baleba; Diallo, Fernandes, Cunha; Mbeumo
Free Premier League Prediction: Leeds United vs Manchester United
Our prediction: Leeds United to win
Leeds have the better league position, the stronger home record and the more settled squad. Eight unbeaten at Elland Road with five clean sheets, against a United side that hasn’t won away in the league all season. That’s the heart of the case.
The makeshift United back four is the second piece. With Dorgu out and both Shaw and Mazraoui uncertain, the Leeds wide players should find room, and the possible return of Dan James gives Farke another way to exploit it late in the game.
United have enough attacking talent to score, and Fernandes and Cunha can punish any lapse. But a side that conceded inside a minute on Tuesday and hasn’t won in five is carrying too much into this one. We’re backing the home win for Leeds.
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