- 1 Los Angeles FC vs LA Galaxy: a playoff place on offer in the last El Tráfico of the regular season
- 2 Los Angeles FC: unbeaten under Tamarit and 17 wins from 22 when they score first
- 3 LA Galaxy: Klauss’s nine goals against a defence that concedes two or more on the road
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Los Angeles FC vs LA Galaxy
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Los Angeles FC vs LA Galaxy: a playoff place on offer in the last El Tráfico of the regular season
Leo Walta’s first goal of the season came from a free kick at Citi Field last Saturday, curled inside the left post after Son Heung-Min had been fouled about 30 yards out. It was LAFC’s first set-piece goal since a 3-2 defeat at Nashville on 17 May, and it earned a 1-1 draw with New York City FC after Andres Perea headed in a Nicolás Fernández Mercau corner on 59 minutes.
That point left LAFC sixth in the Western Conference with a 12-9-10 record and 46 points, two behind San Jose in fourth, the last place that brings home advantage in the first round of the playoffs. A win on Sunday would also clinch a playoff place outright, which gives the final El Tráfico of the regular season more than local bragging rights to settle.
The Galaxy are eighth, four points behind their neighbours and two behind Seattle in seventh, with a four-point cushion over the playoff line. Their run-in is less settled than LAFC’s, and a defeat across town would bring the chasing pack closer with very little time left to respond.
Kick-off at BMO Stadium is at 6pm local time on Sunday 25 October, which is 1am UK time on Monday 26 October, with Armando Villarreal refereeing. Both clubs have kept most of their starting XIs together over the last six matches, LAFC 65% and the Galaxy 69%, and this is a fixture in which managers rarely rotate.
The series itself couldn’t be more even. In 27 meetings LAFC have won ten, the Galaxy have won ten and seven have been drawn, with 17 of those games decided by a goal or fewer. The recent pattern at this ground leans one way, though: LAFC have taken points from six straight league home games against the Galaxy, and the visitors’ last win here was a 2-0 US Open Cup tie in May 2023.
Los Angeles FC: unbeaten under Tamarit and 17 wins from 22 when they score first 
Marc Dos Santos was dismissed in late September, and interim coach Xavi Tamarit hasn’t lost any of his three games in charge, with a win and two draws. The results before the change explain why the club acted: a 3-1 defeat at Sporting Kansas City, a 2-2 draw at San Jose and a 1-0 loss at Dallas left LAFC drifting towards the edge of the playoff picture.
Under Tamarit they’ve drawn 1-1 with Vancouver, beaten Austin 3-1 and drawn at New York City FC. None of those performances was spectacular, but the defensive base has held, and that’s where LAFC’s season has been built. They’ve conceded 1.1 goals per game in the league, the third-lowest rate in MLS, and kept eight clean sheets at home this year.
The other number I’d point to is what happens once they go ahead. In all competitions LAFC are 17-0-5 when they score first, and in the league that record is 12-0-4, so an opening goal has been close to a guarantee of at least a point. Hugo Lloris, who has started all three of the most recent meetings with the Galaxy, is a large part of why leads hold.
Denis Bouanga remains the main attacking threat, with Son on the other flank and Walta adding a set-piece option that the side had lacked since May. Walta became the 14th different player to score a regular-season goal for LAFC this season, which shows how widely the goals have been shared.
There are absences to manage. Timothy Tillman is out with a pelvis problem, back-up goalkeeper Cabral Carter has an arm injury and Jeremy Ebobisse is missing with a leg injury, so Bouanga is likely to lead the line with little cover behind him.
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LA Galaxy: Klauss’s nine goals against a defence that concedes two or more on the road 
Greg Vanney’s side come into the derby on a mixed run. They drew 2-2 with San Diego last time out, with Klauss and Erik Thommy scoring in the first half, and before that they beat Portland 2-0, lost 6-2 at St. Louis, beat Colorado 3-2 and won 3-2 at Minnesota after a 1-1 draw with Seattle.
Klauss is the man to watch. He has nine MLS goals this season, more than anyone else at the club, and he sits ahead of Marco Reus in the scoring list. Reus is still the player who links midfield to attack, and the pair have carried an attack that has scored freely when it’s at full strength.
It won’t be at full strength on Sunday. Hirving Lozano and Kyogo Furuhashi both have hamstring injuries, and Isaiah Parente is out with an ankle problem. Losing Lozano and Furuhashi removes two of the forwards who could stretch an LAFC back line that’s comfortable defending its own box.
The bigger worry for the Galaxy is what happens at the other end away from home. They’ve conceded at least two goals in nine away matches this season, and the 6-2 at St. Louis showed how quickly a game can get away from them. J.T. Marcinkowski is expected in goal behind a back four of Miller, Haak, Garces and Nelson.
The last meeting between these sides went badly for them, too. LAFC won 3-0 at the Galaxy’s own ground on 18 July 2026, and the Galaxy haven’t beaten LAFC in their last three meetings, which includes the 3-3 and 2-2 draws of 2025.
Probable lineup Los Angeles FC: Lloris; Hollingshead, Long, Tafari, Cheberko; Delgado, Jesus; Choiniere, Son, Shaffelburg; Bouanga
Probable lineup LA Galaxy: Marcinkowski; Miller, Haak, Garces, Nelson; Ruiz, Reus, Roberto; Paintsil, Klauss, Thommy
Free Football Prediction: Los Angeles FC vs LA Galaxy
Our prediction: Los Angeles FC to win to nil
A straight LAFC win is priced at around 1.36, too short to back on its own, so I’d look for the outcome that follows from the way this game is likely to unfold. LAFC have eight home clean sheets this year, they concede 1.1 goals per game, and they kept the Galaxy out completely in July’s 3-0 win.
The Galaxy have scored freely this season, and Klauss gives them a genuine threat, but they arrive without Lozano or Furuhashi and with an away defensive record that has let in two or more nine times. Against a side that’s 12-0-4 in the league when scoring first, an early LAFC goal would push the Galaxy into chasing a game they’ve struggled to control on their travels.
The derby history warns against confident predictions, with 17 of 27 meetings settled by a goal or fewer. Even so, the home side’s defence, the visitors’ missing forwards and the playoff place on the line all point the same way, and I’d back LAFC to win without conceding.
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