- 1 Kilmarnock vs St Johnstone: the bottom side and the league’s leakiest defence host Fowler
- 2 Kilmarnock: 13 conceded in five home games and two defeats in four days
- 3 St Johnstone: Fowler’s six goals and three games without a win
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Kilmarnock vs St Johnstone
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Kilmarnock vs St Johnstone: the bottom side and the league’s leakiest defence host Fowler 
Kilmarnock are bottom of the Scottish Premiership with eight points from 11 games, and their 26 goals conceded is the worst total in the division. Their 11 scored is the joint-lowest, level with Hibernian.
Neil McCann’s side lost 3-0 at Falkirk on Saturday and 3-1 at Dundee in midweek, six goals conceded in four days.
St Johnstone come to Rugby Park on Saturday 31 October, kick-off 3pm UK time. Simo Valakari’s newly promoted side are eighth with 13 points from three wins, four draws and four defeats, five points clear of their hosts.
They won the first meeting of the season, 4-3 at McDiarmid Park on the opening day in August. It set the tone for a Kilmarnock defence that has kept conceding since.
St Johnstone arrive without much momentum of their own. They’ve gone three league games without a win, drawing 1-1 with Dundee United, losing 4-0 at Rangers and needing Josh Campbell’s 93rd-minute header to draw 2-2 with Motherwell on Wednesday.
The prices are close: St Johnstone 2.40, Kilmarnock 2.63, the draw 3.50. I’d take St Johnstone with the draw as cover, at 1.80 draw no bet. Both teams to score is 1.57 and over 2.5 goals 1.67, prices that reflect how many goals Kilmarnock have let in.
Kilmarnock: 13 conceded in five home games and two defeats in four days 
Kilmarnock have won one, drawn one and lost three of their five home league games, scoring five and conceding 13.
The win was a 3-2 against Motherwell on 17 October, and the draw a 1-1 with Hearts. Away from home they’ve also beaten Hibernian 1-0, the result that started their last six.
Greg Kiltie is the top league scorer with three, two of them in the Motherwell win. Hugill has two, and Schjonning-Larsen, Stanger, John-Jules and Clescenco one each.
Bailey Rice and goalkeeper Max Stryjek are both injured, so Mantl is expected to continue in goal behind Brandon, McCarthy, Stanger and Deas.
McCann is likely to go with Lowery, Tshibola and Schjonning-Larsen in midfield and Kiltie, Hugill and John-Jules in attack, a front three with six league goals between them all season. Kilmarnock finished ninth and tenth in the last two seasons, and they’ve already lost seven of 11 this time.
They concede 2.1 goals per league game on average. Two of the three at Falkirk on Saturday were own goals, and Dundee scored three more four days later at Dens Park.
The longer record at Rugby Park is even. Since 2013, Kilmarnock and St Johnstone have each won eight league meetings there, with three draws, and Kilmarnock have scored 24 to St Johnstone’s 20.
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St Johnstone: Fowler’s six goals and three games without a win 
Josh Fowler has six of St Johnstone’s 13 league goals. Nobody else at the club has more than one, with Diabate, Alic, Paton, Steven, Fotheringham and Campbell all on a single goal.
Away from McDiarmid Park the record is weak: one win, one draw and three defeats from five, with 0.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game. That puts them 11th in the away table.
The one away win was 1-0 at Aberdeen on 11 October. The 4-0 defeat at Rangers came two weeks later.
Against the sides below them, St Johnstone have won three and drawn one of four, scoring nine and conceding six. Kilmarnock, bottom of the table, are the kind of opponent they’ve taken points from.
Sam Stanton and Zach Mitchell are still out injured, and Valakari is expected to start Steward in goal behind a back four of Todd, Finlayson, Diabate and Alic, with McAlear and Holt in midfield.
Steven, Paton and Gullan should play behind Fowler. Newly promoted, St Johnstone have taken 13 points from 11 games back in the top flight.
Their defence has been the steadier unit overall, conceding 1.4 goals a game in the league against Kilmarnock’s 2.1. The 4-0 at Ibrox accounts for four of their 17 league goals conceded, and the 4-3 opening-day win over Kilmarnock for three more, so the other nine games have cost them ten goals.
Probable lineup Kilmarnock: Mantl; Brandon, McCarthy, Stanger, Deas; Lowery, Tshibola, Schjonning-Larsen; Kiltie, Hugill, John-Jules
Probable lineup St Johnstone: Steward; Todd, Finlayson, Diabate, Alic; McAlear, Holt; Steven, Paton, Gullan; Fowler
Free Football Prediction: Kilmarnock vs St Johnstone
Our prediction: St Johnstone draw no bet (odds 1.80)
I’d back St Johnstone draw no bet at 1.80. Kilmarnock have conceded 13 in five home games and six in their last two matches, and St Johnstone have Fowler, whose six league goals are more than any Kilmarnock player has managed.
The away record is the reason for the cover. St Johnstone have won once in five on the road this season, at Aberdeen, and a draw here wouldn’t surprise me after three straight league games without a win. Draw no bet returns the stake if that happens. Kilmarnock draw no bet is 1.91, close to the same price, but one home win in five makes them the side I’d oppose rather than back, and their last two games produced six goals against.
St Johnstone scored four against this Kilmarnock defence in August, and the defence has only got worse since. I expect Fowler to score and the visitors to leave Rugby Park with at least a point.
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