Kansas City Chiefs vs New York Jets – Free NFL Prediction – Nov 08

Kansas City Chiefs vs New York Jets: a 2-6 team with one double-digit defeat all season

The Jets are 2-6, but they’ve lost by more than nine points just once. Chicago beat them 23-12 in Week 4, and the five other defeats came by three, seven, seven, three and five. That detail matters at Arrowhead on Sunday 8 November, 1:00pm ET, because the spread is sitting at nine and a half.

Kansas City is 5-2 and has lost two straight, 20-3 in Seattle and 28-24 in Denver last Sunday. The Chiefs had a chance to win that game on the final play, and Malcolm Roach sacked Patrick Mahomes on fourth-and-goal from the 1 as time expired.

Before that, a penalty had wiped out a completion at the goal line, so it was a game that turned on one yard. Mahomes finished 30-of-41 for 321 yards and three touchdowns without an interception, and his team fell behind Denver in the AFC West.

The market has Kansas City at 1.20 to win and the Jets at 4.69, with the spread at -9.5 and the total at 46.5. Both spread prices sit at 1.91. I think the gap is too wide, and the reason is what New York has been doing on offense.

Geno Smith threw for 290 yards against the Raiders, and Braelon Allen ran for 147. The Jets scored 33 points, their season high, even though they lost 38-33 after giving up a 95-yard kickoff return touchdown to Dylan Laube.

Kansas City Chiefs: 23.9 points a game, and a defense that’s been better at home

Mahomes has 1,795 yards, 12 touchdowns and four interceptions, with a 99.7 rating. Those are strong numbers, but the attack has been uneven, with 3 points in Seattle a week before 24 in Denver. Kansas City is averaging 23.9 points through seven games.

Kenneth Walker III has transformed the running game. He has 770 yards and six touchdowns, and that balance is why the Chiefs have been able to control games at Arrowhead. Emmett Johnson added five catches for 128 yards and a 73-yard touchdown in Denver.

The receiving group is otherwise spread out. Rashee Rice had seven catches for 53 yards and a score, and Travis Kelce added five for 67. Tyquan Thornton is out with an ankle injury and running back Brashard Smith with a hamstring problem, so Johnson should get more work.

The defense has allowed 18.7 points a game across the seven weeks, and the three home wins came by 21, 3 and 16. Denver had 13 points through three quarters last week, then scored 15 in the fourth. Peter Woods hurt his neck in that game, and his status on the defensive line needs watching.

The home form explains the size of this spread. Kansas City beat Denver 31-10 and the Chargers 22-6 at Arrowhead, and the only close game there was a 33-30 win over Indianapolis in Week 2.

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New York Jets: Geno Smith’s 12 touchdowns to 3 interceptions, and Allen’s 147 yards

Smith has been far better than the record suggests. He’s completing 69% of his passes for 1,913 yards with 12 touchdowns, three interceptions and a 104.5 rating. His ball security is the reason this team stays in games, because the defense rarely gets it off the field.

The Jets have allowed 23.5 points a game, and the last two weeks have been worse: 28 to Miami and 38 to Las Vegas. Kirk Cousins threw three touchdowns on 19-of-26 passing and ran for another on Sunday, so Mahomes will see plenty he can attack.

Allen’s 147 yards on 21 carries came with a 21-yard touchdown, and he now gives New York a real running threat, even with Breece Hall questionable with a thigh injury. Should Hall return, the Jets have two backs to lean on.

Adonai Mitchell had seven catches for 142 yards and a touchdown against the Raiders, while Isaiah Williams also scored. Garrett Wilson is the leading receiver for the season, and Arian Smith’s knee injury has him ruled out, which thins the group a little.

David Bailey leads the pass rush and could matter here, since the Chiefs lost on a game-ending sack last week. New York is also 4-3-1 against the spread despite its record, which fits with those narrow defeats, and it’s lost by more than nine points just once in eight games.

Probable lineup Kansas City Chiefs: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup New York Jets: Not announced at time of publication

Free NFL Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs vs New York Jets

Our prediction: New York Jets +9.5 at 1.91

I expect Kansas City to win, but the price on that is 1.20, and the handicap is where the value sits. Five of the Jets’ six defeats have come by seven points or fewer, and Smith’s three interceptions in eight games make the kind of collapse that would blow this open less likely.

The case for the Chiefs covering is real, since they’ve won two home games by 16 or more and they’ll be irritated after two straight losses. A New York defense that gave up 38 last week could easily let this one go early.

The Jets’ running game is what tips it for me. With Allen coming off 147 yards, New York can shorten the game and keep Mahomes on the sideline, and the Chiefs have scored more than 24 points just three times in seven games. A 27-20 kind of afternoon fits this matchup better than a blowout.

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