- 1 Inter vs Fiorentina: the leaders host the side with the worst defence in Serie A
- 2 Inter: 21 league goals, but nine conceded and a 4-3 home defeat in Europe
- 3 Fiorentina: 18th, five defeats, but scoring in five straight games
- 4 Free Serie A Prediction: Inter vs Fiorentina
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Inter vs Fiorentina: the leaders host the side with the worst defence in Serie A 
Fiorentina have conceded 17 goals in seven league games, more than any other side in Serie A. That’s 2.43 per 90 minutes, and on Sunday they go to San Siro to face the team that’s scored 21.
Sunday’s game at San Siro kicks off at 11:30 UK time. Inter top the table on 19 points with six wins and a draw, and their goal difference is +12. Fiorentina are 18th on four points, with one win, one draw and five defeats.
The gap in points is 15 after seven rounds, and the market reflects it. Inter are priced between 1.33 and 1.41 to win, with Fiorentina out at around 7.00 or longer.
Inter’s own back line has been far from watertight, though. They’ve conceded nine league goals and kept only two clean sheets, and in all competitions they’ve let in at least one goal in four of their last five games.
Fiorentina’s attack, for all the misery of their season, hasn’t stopped producing. They’ve scored in each of their last five matches in all competitions, and their expected goals figure of 22.8 is actually higher than Inter’s 22.5.
The head-to-head at San Siro has been one-way recently. Inter won 3-0 there in October 2025, 2-1 in February 2025 and 4-0 in September 2023. The most recent meeting, in Florence on 22 March, finished 1-1.
Across the last six meetings Inter have won four, Fiorentina one and one was drawn. Fiorentina’s win was a 3-0 in Florence on 1 December 2024, and only two of the six saw both teams score.
Inter: 21 league goals, but nine conceded and a 4-3 home defeat in Europe 
Inter won 3-1 at Bologna last Saturday to stay top. A week earlier they had beaten Parma 3-0 at San Siro, and the only points they’ve dropped came in a 2-2 draw at Roma on 19 September.
Their games have been open at both ends. They beat Udinese 5-3 at home on 14 September and lost 4-3 to Club Brugge in the Champions League on 13 October, the same ground where they’ll face Fiorentina.
Inter were back in the Champions League on Wednesday at home to Shakhtar Donetsk, so Sunday’s lunchtime kick-off comes four days after another European night.
L. Martínez is listed among the absentees for Sunday. In the last starting XI Esposito partnered Thuram up front, with Barella, Zielinski and Sucic in midfield and Luis Henrique and Dimarco on the flanks.
The back three of Bisseck, Akanji and Bastoni has faced 26 shots on target in the league, and Inter’s goalkeeping has saved 65.4% of what’s come at it this season. Josep Martínez, the expected starter, has a career save rate of 71.1%.
Henrikh Mkhitaryan, with 149 career goals and 119 assists, remains an option from the bench or in a rotated midfield. Inter’s 15 league assists so far show how many players are contributing.
I’d expect Inter to win this, and the price says the same. The question for me is whether they’ll keep Fiorentina out, and on this season’s evidence they don’t do that often.
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Fiorentina: 18th, five defeats, but scoring in five straight games 
Fiorentina lost 3-1 at home to Como last Sunday. Before that they went down 2-1 at Genoa on 10 October, and they’ve won once in the league all season.
That win came on 11 September, 4-2 at Venezia. Since then they’ve drawn 1-1 with Napoli in Florence on 20 September and beaten Pisa 3-0 in the Coppa Italia, then lost their two league games in October.
The defence is the reason they’re in the bottom three. David de Gea has made 21 saves from 38 shots on target, a save rate of 55.3%, well below the 71.5% he has managed across his career.
Fiorentina’s attacking numbers tell a different tale from their defensive ones. Their 22.8 expected goals sits above Inter’s, even though only eight have gone in, and they’ve scored at least once in each of their five games since 11 September.
Rolando Mandragora has 38 career goals from midfield and is their most reliable source from deep. Parisi and Sottil are both on the absentee list for this trip.
The last starting XI included Pongracic and Dragusin in defence, Fagioli and Ndour in midfield, and Mastantuono, Njie and Jiménez further forward, with De Gea in goal.
Their most productive afternoon came at Venezia, where they scored four, and they put three past Pisa in the cup four days later. Both of those were against sides they’d expect to beat, but they also scored against Napoli and Como.
Probable lineup Inter: J. Martínez; Bisseck, Akanji, Bastoni; Luis Henrique, Barella, Zielinski, Sucic, Dimarco; Thuram, Esposito
Probable lineup Fiorentina: Not announced at time of publication
Free Serie A Prediction: Inter vs Fiorentina
Our prediction: Both teams to score at 1.67
Inter at 1.41 or shorter doesn’t meet my price, and over 2.5 goals at about 1.42 doesn’t either. Both teams to score at 1.67 does, and it’s where the numbers lead.
Inter have kept two clean sheets in seven league games and conceded in four of their last five in all competitions. Fiorentina have scored in five straight matches and create more chances than their eight league goals suggest.
The head-to-head at San Siro is the argument against, with Inter keeping Fiorentina out in the 3-0 and 4-0 wins. I’ll side with this season’s form over those results, and I expect Fiorentina to get one in a game Inter still win.
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