Indiana Fever vs Phoenix Mercury – WNBA Prediction – June 24, 2026

Indiana Fever vs Phoenix Mercury: a game that could catch fire fast

Just a few days after Indiana took the first meeting 85-79, the Fever and the Mercury are back at it in a rematch that could produce even more points this time. The two teams come in with very different profiles: Indiana leans on one of the most productive attacks around right now, while Phoenix keeps trying to patch over its defensive problems with aggressive offense.

Under those circumstances, the pace of the game could become the key factor very quickly. The Fever like to turn the screw at home, and the Mercury usually don’t have the tools to drag things down over 40 minutes.

Indiana keeps flexing its offensive muscle

Indiana’s record over its last ten games is fairly even, but the offensive numbers are still eye-catching. The Fever are averaging 91.7 points across that stretch and are even topping 100 points per game at home. That kind of scoring punch forces opponents to keep up.

Even when the outside shot isn’t falling, Indiana still creates a huge number of possessions and attempts. That naturally leads to open games. The first clash with Phoenix finished on 164 points, but the Fever have already shown plenty of times this season that they can blow the roof off at home.

Phoenix is more dangerous on offense than it looks

Phoenix has been going through a rougher spell, with only three wins in its last ten road games. Even so, this team still has enough firepower to help push scores up against the league’s better sides. The Mercury have scored close to 80 points per game over their last ten outings and, historically, have tended to attack well when they travel to Indiana.

That trend stands out sharply, with Phoenix clearing 83.5 points in 14 of its last 16 visits to the Fever. Results do not always follow, but the Mercury can still do their part when the tempo rises. Against an Indiana team that often prefers to attack first and ask questions later, the ingredients are there for a bigger scoring game than the opener.

WNBA Prediction: Indiana Fever vs Phoenix Mercury

Over 173.5 points in the game

Indiana is currently averaging more than 91 points over its last ten games and regularly sails past the 100-point mark at home. That kind of output puts Fever games among the most open in the league. Phoenix has enough in the tank to help the scoreboard too. The Mercury have often found ways to score in Indiana and still generate enough volume to live with a high pace.

The first meeting of the week was fairly controlled, but the recent numbers from both teams and Indiana’s attacking profile suggest this second one could be looser and more open. If the Fever dictate the usual tempo, the 173.5 line looks there for the taking.

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