- 1 Hull City vs Everton: two of the meanest defences in the league meet on Humberside
- 2 Hull City: Belloumi does the creating, the defence does the rest
- 3 Everton: three clean sheets in five and a striker who lives on contact
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Hull City vs Everton
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Hull City vs Everton: two of the meanest defences in the league meet on Humberside 
Seven goals conceded between them in ten Premier League games. That’s the number to keep in mind when Hull City host Everton at the MKM Stadium on Sunday 11 October, with kick-off at 15:00 Paris time (14:00 in the UK).
Hull weren’t supposed to be here. Promoted through the play-offs, tipped by plenty of people to go straight back down, they’ve collected eight points from five games and sit eighth. They beat Manchester United 2-0 at home, drew 2-2 at Stamford Bridge and won at Coventry.
Everton sit one place above them in seventh, still unbeaten. David Moyes has built exactly the side you’d expect from him: organised, hard to break down, happy to take a point when three isn’t there. They’ve let in three goals in five games and kept three clean sheets.
So who blinks first? History won’t help much. These two haven’t met in the league since 2017, when Everton won 4-0 at Goodison after a 2-2 draw in Hull, and their last meeting was an FA Cup tie in January 2022 that Everton won 3-2 after extra time.
What matters is the here and now. Seven of the ten league games these clubs have played this season finished under 2.5 goals. Both managers will look at that figure and feel comfortable with it.
Put the scorelines side by side and the pattern jumps out. Hull’s five games: 2-0 against Manchester United, 0-0 with Villa, 2-2 at Chelsea, 1-0 at Coventry and a 2-1 defeat at Newcastle. Everton’s last three: 2-2, 0-0 and 1-0. Only three of those eight results went over 2.5 goals. Low-event football is the default setting for both clubs.
Hull City: Belloumi does the creating, the defence does the rest 
Mohamed Belloumi has had a hand in four of Hull’s six league goals. He scored both at Chelsea, set up Liam Millar’s winner at Coventry and teed up Mohamed-Ali Cho in the 2-1 defeat at Newcastle last time out. He also leads the squad with 13 shots.
Take him out and the supply line dries up. That’s the honest assessment.
Sergej Jakirovic’s side win games another way, though. Four goals conceded in five matches is a serious return for a newly promoted club, and the 0-0 with Aston Villa showed they can frustrate good teams for 90 minutes. That solidity isn’t new, either: it carried them through the end of the Championship season and the play-offs. The 2-0 against Manchester United wasn’t a smash-and-grab either: Hull defended well and took their chances.
There’s an edge to this group. Hull have picked up 17 yellow cards in five games, almost double Everton’s nine. Some of that is naivety at a new level, but some of it is a side that knows what it’s about and isn’t afraid to get stuck in.
The squad list is the worry. Butland, Hughes, Morita, Gyabi, Ansah and Matazo are all listed as injured, while Mendy, Targett and Stroud are doubtful. That’s a lot of bodies missing for a club without Premier League depth, and it pushes Jakirovic towards caution rather than adventure.
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Everton: three clean sheets in five and a striker who lives on contact 
Unbeaten in five, seventh in the table, three draws among those results. Everton under Moyes aren’t spectacular. They don’t need to be.
Their last three league games tell the story: a 2-2 draw with Manchester United, a 0-0 at Tottenham and a 1-0 home win over Ipswich. Two of those three stayed under 2.5 goals, and the draw at Spurs was the kind of away day Moyes has built a career on. Compact, patient, no gifts.
Thierno Barry leads the line and he’s the man Hull will need to watch. He’s won a foul in four of his five starts, has 17 shots and has played at least 70 minutes in every game. Against a side that’s been booked as often as Hull, he’ll be a constant source of set-pieces.
The absences aren’t too damaging. Mykolenko is injured, Norgaard is short of fitness and Rohl is also out, but the spine of the team is intact. Brennan Johnson, signed in the summer swap that sent Dwight McNeil to Palace, gives Moyes a runner to break on the counter.
Will Everton push for the win? They’ll probably have more of the ball. That doesn’t mean they’ll take risks with it, and that’s the crux of the matter.
Probable lineup Hull City: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Everton: Not announced at time of publication
Free Football Prediction: Hull City vs Everton
Our prediction: Under 2.5 goals (1.80)
Everton have conceded three goals in five games and Hull four. Seven of the ten league matches these sides have played this season stayed under 2.5 goals. When two teams both build from defence, the first goal tends to tighten things even further, not open them up.
Hull’s injury list makes it hard to see them chasing the game, and Moyes rarely needs to. Belloumi can produce a moment, and Barry will win his share of free-kicks, but neither attack has shown it can sustain pressure for long spells against a set defence.
A 1-0 or a 1-1 looks the most likely outcome on Humberside. At 1.80, Under 2.5 goals is the cleanest way to back that reading.
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