- 1 Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest: Glasner comes back to Selhurst with the other lot
- 2 Crystal Palace: one clean sheet, a lot of late damage and a rebuilt back line
- 3 Nottingham Forest: unbeaten on the road, goalless at the City Ground
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest: Glasner comes back to Selhurst with the other lot 
Oliver Glasner spent the best years of Crystal Palace’s recent history in the home dugout at Selhurst Park. On Sunday he’ll sit in the away one. Glasner left when his contract ran out in June, Pierre Sage replaced him, and Nottingham Forest handed Glasner the keys on 6 July. Kick-off is at 15:00 Paris time (14:00 in London).
That storyline gets most of the attention. It shouldn’t distract from the table, though, because neither side has started well.
Palace are 15th with four points from five games: one win, one draw, three defeats. Forest are only a point better off, with five points from a record of one win, two draws and two losses. Both clubs went into the three-week international break with plenty of homework.
There’s a second subplot here as well. Daniel Muñoz, the wing-back who was such a big part of Glasner’s Palace, moved to Forest for £22m on deadline day. He knows exactly how this Palace dressing room ticks. So does his new manager.
The market can’t separate them. Exchange prices have Palace around 2.78 and Forest around 2.86, with the draw near 3.45. When the bookmakers shrug like that, the smarter question usually isn’t who wins. It’s how many goals the game produces, and both sides have given a fairly clear answer so far.
Crystal Palace: one clean sheet, a lot of late damage and a rebuilt back line 
The summer changed this squad more than people realise. Maxence Lacroix went to Chelsea for £52m, Muñoz went to Forest, and Sage has spent the opening weeks fitting together Anan Khalaili, Takehiro Tomiyasu, Ben Chilwell, Quinten Timber and the on-loan Axel Disasi. That’s a lot of new pieces in one defence.
The results reflect it. Manchester City won 4-1 at Selhurst in August, and Ipswich then scored a stoppage-time winner there in a 3-2 game that Palace finished with ten men. Two home league games, two defeats, seven goals conceded.
Not much of a fortress.
The trip to Leeds before the break was more encouraging. Palace held on for a 0-0 at Elland Road, their first clean sheet of the season, and Sage used the result to push one message: the league table matters more than anything else right now. That’s a manager asking for structure first, flair second.
Can that hold up at home, with a crowd expecting more? It’s the big test of Sunday. The finer margins have hurt Palace so far, and a side that’s lost points late tends to play the next home game a little more carefully. Don’t expect Sage to throw caution away against the coach who knows his players better than anyone.
There’s also a fixture pile-up to think about. Palace travel to Lyon in the Europa League on Thursday 15 October, so a measured, controlled performance suits the schedule as much as it suits the squad.
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Nottingham Forest: unbeaten on the road, goalless at the City Ground 
Here’s the strangest stat of Forest’s season. Three home league games, zero goals scored, one point taken. They lost 1-0 to Leeds, drew 0-0 with Tottenham and lost 1-0 to Coventry on 19 September.
Away from Nottingham, it’s a completely different team. Forest drew 2-2 at Anfield and won 2-1 at Villa Park thanks to a late Igor Jesus goal. Four points from two of the hardest trips in the division. That isn’t luck.
It tells you how Glasner wants to play. Forest are comfortable without the ball, happy to defend in a compact block for long spells and wait for the home side to get frustrated. The 0-0 with Spurs was the template: few chances, little risk, a game that never opened up.
That approach travels well. It also makes Forest a nightmare for a home team short on confidence, because the longer the score stays level, the more the pressure shifts onto the side in front of its own fans. Palace know that feeling already this season.
The weakness is obvious too. Forest’s attack hasn’t been sharp enough to turn control into wins on a regular basis, and five goals in five league games doesn’t scream shootout. They’ll need Muñoz bombing on from wing-back to give them width, and that’s a duel worth watching against his old club.
Probable lineup Crystal Palace: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Nottingham Forest: Not announced at time of publication
Free Football Prediction: Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest
Our prediction: Under 2.5 goals
Picking a winner here feels like guesswork, and the market agrees. The goals line is a different story. Forest haven’t scored in three home games and lean on a deep, patient block away from home, while Palace’s most convincing display of the season was a 0-0 at Leeds. Both managers have reasons to keep this tight.
The Over 2.5 trades around 2.02, which puts the Under a little below 2.00 with most bookmakers. That’s fair value for a game between two sides averaging barely a goal a match. Glasner knows Palace’s patterns inside out, and Sage is building from the back with a defence that’s still learning to play together.
A 1-0 either way or a 1-1 looks the most natural shape for this afternoon. The one thing we can’t see is a wide-open game. Under 2.5 goals is the call.
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