- 1 Houston Rockets vs Golden State Warriors: the league’s slowest pace against its fastest
- 2 Houston Rockets: a defense allowing 107.6 and a frontcourt that runs through Sengun
- 3 Golden State Warriors: six straight wins, built on Curry and a rookie scoring 21.5
- 4 Free NBA Prediction: Houston Rockets vs Golden State Warriors
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Houston Rockets vs Golden State Warriors: the league’s slowest pace against its fastest 
The last time these teams met, on 5 April at Chase Center, Houston won 117-116. Kevin Durant had 31 points, eight rebounds and eight assists, Alperen Sengun scored 24, and Stephen Curry put up 29 in his first game back from a knee injury. Houston took that season series 2-1, and it has won four of the last six meetings, playoffs included.
The rematch at Toyota Center on Wednesday 11 November, tip-off at 9:30pm ET, comes with both teams playing well. Houston is 7-2, its best start since 2014-15, and leads the Southwest. Golden State is 6-3 and has won six straight after an 0-3 start, a run that finished with a 120-100 win over Miami on Thursday.
What makes this matchup worth explaining is the tempo gap. Golden State plays at a pace of 108.5 possessions, the kind of number that produces 120-point nights, and Houston plays at 96.4. One team wants a track meet. The other wants a half-court game decided by rebounding and defense, and the Rockets have been better at imposing that than almost anyone this season.
Neither team is on a back-to-back. Houston plays in Phoenix on Saturday and hosts Denver on Monday, then gets a day off. Golden State finishes a six-game homestand against New Orleans on Monday and flies to Houston with one day of rest, so the travel sits with the visitors.
The roster news matters more for Golden State. Kristaps Porzingis announced on 6 November that he is stepping away from basketball to focus on his health, Jimmy Butler is out until early next year with a torn ACL, and Moses Moody is out with a patellar tendon injury. The Warriors have used seven different starting lineups in eight games, a measure of how much the coaching staff has had to improvise.
Houston Rockets: a defense allowing 107.6 and a frontcourt that runs through Sengun 
Houston allows 107.6 points a game, and its points allowed ranked fourth in the league after eight games. Opponents are shooting 30.0% from three against the Rockets, and Houston ranks first in rebounds allowed. Those two numbers are the foundation of the 7-2 start, and both suit a game against a team that needs threes and second chances to keep its pace going.
The offense runs through Sengun, who’s averaging 23.3 points, 8.7 rebounds and 7.8 assists. He had a triple-double of 17, 12 and 10 in Wednesday’s 117-107 loss to Minnesota, and 26 points with 10 assists in the 109-93 win over Boston two nights earlier. Durant adds 20.8 points on 40.7% from three.
Jabari Smith Jr. has been the surprise. He’s averaging 18.4 points and shooting 48.1% from three, and he scored 30 with six threes in the 119-98 win over Oklahoma City on 31 October. Amen Thompson contributes 16.0 points and 6.1 rebounds, and Fred VanVleet adds 12.2 points and 6.8 assists.
The team shoots 49.8% from the field, second in the NBA, and 38.7% from three. That efficiency is why Houston scores 117.9 a game despite playing so slowly: there are fewer possessions, but each one is worth more.
The injuries are in the frontcourt depth. Steven Adams is out with a calf problem and hasn’t played since 23 October, and Clint Capela missed three straight games with a right ankle sprain, with a return estimated for Monday. Neither absence touches the starting five of VanVleet, Thompson, Durant, Smith and Sengun.
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Golden State Warriors: six straight wins, built on Curry and a rookie scoring 21.5 
Yaxel Lendeborg, drafted 11th in June, is averaging 21.5 points and 7.0 rebounds in his first NBA season. He scored 37 against the Clippers on 1 November, a night when Curry and Draymond Green rested, and Golden State still won 124-112. That game shows how the Warriors have got through the absences: a rookie who scores without needing the ball run through him.
Curry is averaging 30.0 points on 42.9% from three in six games. He scored 34 in the 116-113 comeback against Phoenix, after Golden State trailed by 17, and 29 against Miami on Thursday, when he passed Oscar Robertson for 17th on the all-time scoring list. Brandin Podziemski adds 17.0 points, 5.0 rebounds and 5.0 assists.
The six-game streak came entirely at home or in short trips: wins at Minnesota, then home against the Lakers, the Clippers, Phoenix and Miami. Golden State is 4-1 at Chase Center and 2-2 on the road, and this is the first game after a long homestand ends.
The defensive numbers are the weak side. The Warriors allow 114.6 points a game, seven more than Houston, and part of that comes with the pace. A team that plays 108.5 possessions will concede more, but against a Rockets side that rebounds this well, missed threes turn into empty trips quickly.
Green has been listed day to day with an elbow problem, as has Gary Payton II with calf tightness, and Gui Santos has a knee issue. Green’s numbers, 3.2 points and 6.3 assists, undersell his role in organizing the defense, and he was ejected early in the third quarter against Phoenix on two technicals.
Probable lineup Houston Rockets: Fred VanVleet, Amen Thompson, Kevin Durant, Jabari Smith Jr., Alperen Sengun
Probable lineup Golden State Warriors: Stephen Curry, Brandin Podziemski, Richard, Yaxel Lendeborg, Draymond Green (Green, Payton II day to day)
Free NBA Prediction: Houston Rockets vs Golden State Warriors
Our prediction: Houston Rockets to win by 6 points or more
Golden State’s streak is real, and Curry at 30 points a game can swing any night. But the six wins came almost entirely at Chase Center against teams that let the Warriors play at their pace. Houston won’t: it plays the second-slowest tempo in the league, rebounds better than anyone and holds opponents to 30.0% from three, which is exactly the shot Golden State relies on.
The rest also favors the Rockets. They’ll be at home on one day’s rest after hosting Denver, while the Warriors end a six-game homestand on Monday night and travel to Houston. Golden State is down Porzingis, Butler and Moody, and its starting lineup has changed seven times in eight games.
A straight moneyline on Houston is likely to price too short, so we’d rather take the margin. Three of Houston’s seven wins this season came by 16 or more, 132-100 in Milwaukee, 119-98 over Oklahoma City and 109-93 over Boston, and we expect the Rockets to win this one by at least six.
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