- 1 Buffalo Sabres vs Tampa Bay Lightning: two goalies under .890 and a 69.8% penalty kill
- 2 Buffalo Sabres: Thompson and Quinn scoring, and a penalty kill ranked 27th
- 3 Tampa Bay Lightning: 3.73 goals a game, and a road record that doesn’t match
- 4 Free NHL Prediction: Buffalo Sabres vs Tampa Bay Lightning
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Buffalo Sabres vs Tampa Bay Lightning: two goalies under .890 and a 69.8% penalty kill 
Nikita Kucherov asked Tampa Bay for a trade on 30 October and has said he won’t re-sign when his contract ends next summer. General manager Julien BriseBois answered that the Lightning have no intention of moving him, and nothing has happened since. In the meantime Kucherov keeps playing: four goals and 16 assists in 15 games, the most points on the team.
That situation sits in the background of Wednesday 11 November at KeyBank Center, puck drop 7:30pm ET. Tampa Bay is 10-3-2 with 22 points and third in the Atlantic. Buffalo is 8-5-3 with 19 points after beating Columbus 5-2 on Friday, a game in which Josh Norris scored twice and Owen Power had three assists.
The records hide a split that matters here. The Lightning are 8-0-0 at home and 2-3-2 on the road. The Sabres are 4-4-0 at home and 4-1-3 away. Tampa Bay’s strength has been built in its own building, and this game isn’t there.
Both teams have the same schedule shape. The Lightning play in Minnesota on Saturday and Winnipeg on Sunday, then get two days off; the Sabres host Vegas on Sunday and also rest Monday and Tuesday. Both then play again on Thursday, Tampa Bay in Columbus and Buffalo in Chicago, which means either team could hold its starting goaltender for the second game.
Last season’s four meetings help explain where this preview is going. Buffalo won three of them: 6-2, 8-7 in a game with more than 100 penalty minutes, and 4-2. Tampa Bay won the other 4-3 in overtime. Three of the four produced seven goals or more.
Buffalo Sabres: Thompson and Quinn scoring, and a penalty kill ranked 27th 
Buffalo kills 69.8% of its penalties, 27th in the NHL. Against a Tampa Bay team with Kucherov, Brandon Hagel and Jake Guentzel, that’s the weakness the Sabres can least afford, and it’s the first reason this game should produce goals.
The scoring comes from two forwards. Tage Thompson has 10 goals and 19 points, and Jack Quinn has nine goals and 16 points, one of them against Columbus. Zach Benson leads the team in assists with 13, and Power has 14 points from the blue line, with Rasmus Dahlin adding 10 in 13 games.
Buffalo’s season averages sit around 3.06 goals for and 3.31 against, and it was 23rd in scoring before the Columbus win. The power play is weak too, at 16.3%, 27th in the league, level with the penalty kill’s ranking.
The goaltending hasn’t steadied things. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen is 5-3-3 with a 3.27 goals-against average and an .878 save percentage, and Ellis is 3-2-0 with a 2.92 and .891. Luukkonen started Friday and is the likelier starter here, though the Thursday game in Chicago leaves the choice open.
Several players are out. Konsta Helenius is listed as out, and Justin Danforth, Alex Lyon, Matt Grzelcyk and Jack Rathbone are on injured reserve. With Lyon on IR, Ellis has been the second goalie behind Luukkonen.
no renewal
Free for 2 weeks.
Tampa Bay Lightning: 3.73 goals a game, and a road record that doesn’t match 
Tampa Bay scores 3.73 goals a game, fourth in the NHL, and takes 30.2 shots, fifth. It also allows only 24.7 shots, fourth fewest. Those numbers describe a team that controls play, and they’ve produced 56 goals for and 46 against.
The production is spread out. Hagel has eight goals and 17 points, Guentzel eight goals and 15 points, and Brayden Point 14 points. Ilya Mikheyev scored twice in the 4-1 win over Chicago on Thursday, and Victor Hedman added a power-play goal in that game.
The weakness is in goal, which is why the low shot counts haven’t turned into a low goals-against figure. Andrei Vasilevskiy is 8-3-1 but with a 2.75 goals-against average and an .887 save percentage. Hildeby, his backup, is at .885. Tampa Bay allows 3.0 goals a game despite giving up fewer shots than almost anyone.
The power play hasn’t been the strength it was. It converts at 17.3%, 25th, but against a penalty kill as weak as Buffalo’s, the matchup favors the Lightning on special teams. The penalty kill sits at 77.5%, 16th.
Yanni Gourde is on injured reserve. Kucherov played on Thursday, and his status is worth checking on Wednesday morning given the trade request, but nothing suggests he’ll be held out.
Probable lineup Buffalo Sabres: Tage Thompson, Jack Quinn, Zach Benson, Josh Norris; Rasmus Dahlin, Owen Power; Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen in goal (not confirmed)
Probable lineup Tampa Bay Lightning: Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, Brandon Hagel, Jake Guentzel; Victor Hedman; Andrei Vasilevskiy in goal (not confirmed)
Free NHL Prediction: Buffalo Sabres vs Tampa Bay Lightning
Our prediction: Over 6.5 goals
Tampa Bay is the better team, but the 2-3-2 road record and Buffalo’s three wins in four meetings last season make a side pick less clear than a total. The goaltending makes the case: Vasilevskiy at .887, Luukkonen at .878, and both backups under .892. Four goalies, none of them stopping shots at a normal rate, in a game where either team might rest its starter.
Special teams push the same way. Buffalo’s penalty kill works at 69.8%, 27th, against a Tampa Bay attack scoring 3.73 a game. The Sabres score just over three a night and concede more than three on average.
Three of last season’s four meetings went past six goals, including 8-7 in this building in March. No total had been posted when we wrote this, so the number may move, but we’d play the over at 6.5.
in your pocket.
Real-time notifications & alerts
_________
About our free predictions
- What we publish on MathOdds are analyses, nothing more. We share a view, a reading of the moment, but never a guarantee. Sport remains what it is: unpredictable. A red card, an injury, a last-minute goal, and the script changes completely.
- Let’s be clear: there is no such thing as a risk-free bet. Even when it looks “obvious”, nothing ever is. And yes, that means you can lose. It’s even inevitable at some point.
- The smartest approach is to stay reasonable. Bet small, set a budget and stick to it. Never use money you need to live on. And above all: don’t chase your losses: that rarely ends well.
- A bet should remain a game, not a job or a source of income. If it starts taking up too much space in your daily life, causes stress or frustration, take a break. And if needed, talk to a support organisation: that’s what they’re there for.
- Ultimately, responsibility lies with you. Reading our content means accepting that risk exists and will never disappear, no matter how good the analysis.
- Essential reminder: gambling is prohibited for minors and must comply with the laws of your country. Need help? Visit begambleaware.org.
No commitment from us
Our predictions carry no contractual value. They have no legal standing. In short: you cannot rely on them to claim anything if a bet doesn’t come through.
Information changes
A prediction is always based on what we know at the time of writing. But between publication and kick-off, a lineup can change, a player picks up an injury, the weather turns, and the analysis can quickly be outdated. We cannot be held responsible for that.
Your responsibility
Before placing a bet, simply check that gambling is legal in your country. If it isn’t, that’s your responsibility, not ours.
Responsible gambling
We can’t say it enough: gamble responsibly. If you’re struggling to stay in control, don’t wait to seek help.
Legal age
MathOdds content is intended for adults only. By browsing here, you confirm you meet the legal age requirement for gambling in your jurisdiction.
About visuals
The images and logos of Buffalo Sabres and Tampa Bay Lightning on MathOdds are used solely to illustrate our articles. They do not imply any official affiliation with a federation or sports organisation, and we claim no rights over them. Those rights belong to their original owners. If any visual raises a concern, contact us and it will be removed without delay.
Leave a Reply