- 1 Hajduk Split vs Ajax: Poljud’s unbeaten run against an away side that always scores twice
- 2 Hajduk Split: eight wins in nine and a fortress at Poljud
- 3 Ajax: unbeaten on the road and scoring freely, but five games without a clean sheet
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Hajduk Split vs Ajax
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Hajduk Split vs Ajax: Poljud’s unbeaten run against an away side that always scores twice 
Hajduk Split haven’t lost at home since 21 April. Ajax haven’t lost away from home all season, and they’ve scored at least twice in every one of those six road trips. Thursday’s Conference League opener at Stadion Poljud puts both runs on the line.
Kick-off is 18:45 Paris time. It’s matchday one of the league phase, and it’s only the third competitive meeting between these clubs.
The previous two came in the 1994-95 Champions League quarter-finals. Ajax won 3-0 on aggregate and went on to lift their fourth European Cup. Thirty-one years on, the context is very different: this is Ajax’s first-ever Conference League campaign after finishing fifth in the Eredivisie last term.
Hajduk, meanwhile, are back in the main phase of a European competition for the first time in nearly 16 years. The last time didn’t go well: five defeats from six in the 2010-11 Europa League.
Break down the numbers and a clear edge emerges for the visitors. Ajax have scored first in six of their last seven matches. Hajduk have scored first in eight of their last ten. Whoever lands the first blow in Split probably controls the night.
So who blinks first? The away record says Ajax.
Hajduk Split: eight wins in nine and a fortress at Poljud 
Saturday’s 2-1 comeback win over Dinamo Zagreb was the statement result of Hajduk’s season. Gonzalo Garcia’s side went behind against the Croatian giants and turned it around. That made it eight wins from nine either side of the international break.
Home form is the foundation. Unbeaten at Poljud since April, four straight home wins, three of them without conceding. A side that knows what it’s about in front of its own crowd.
The route here wasn’t smooth, though. Hajduk conceded late goals in both legs of the play-off against Rakow and needed extra time to get through, with Rokas Pukstas striking the decisive goal. That defensive wobble under pressure is worth remembering.
There’s also the 3-0 defeat at Rijeka in recent weeks. One bad afternoon, sure. But it shows what happens when this team faces a well-organised opponent that doesn’t let them dictate the tempo.
Team news is mixed. Roko Brajkovic hasn’t featured since knee surgery in the summer, so Abdoulie Sanyang keeps his place. Ivica Ivusic and Adrion Pajaziti are also out. The boost is the return of veteran forward Marko Livaja, who gives Garcia a genuine option off the bench or from the start.
The atmosphere will be loud. Will that be enough? Probably not on its own.
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Ajax: unbeaten on the road and scoring freely, but five games without a clean sheet 
Five wins and a draw from six competitive away games. At least two goals in every one of them. That’s the number that defines Michel’s Ajax right now.
The qualifying campaign was emphatic. Vojvodina and Shelbourne were seen off, then Sion were beaten in both legs of the play-off for a 9-5 aggregate win. Before that, the Eredivisie produced a 4-0 win at Telstar, a 5-1 at Fortuna Sittard and a 5-1 at home to Willem II.
The recent stall is real, though. Back-to-back home draws, 2-2 with Excelsior and 1-1 with NEC, have taken the edge off the momentum. And the defence has now gone five games without a clean sheet. That’s a problem Michel hasn’t solved yet.
The absentee list is long. Kasper Dolberg tore his cruciate ligament against Excelsior and is expected to miss the rest of the season. Caio Henrique (hip), Daley Blind (back), Steven Berghuis and Anton Gaaei are all out. Simon Adingra and Aaron Bouwman are back after cameos against NEC.
Without Dolberg, the scoring load falls on Tolu Arokodare, with Edvardsen and Ouzane asked to chip in from wide and Brandt and Klaassen arriving from midfield. The supply line’s still there. Ajax have scored in volume all season, and away from Amsterdam they’ve looked more dangerous, not less.
Ajax’s ability to score away, combined with Hajduk’s late wobbles against Rakow: that’s the matchup the visitors are banking on.
Probable lineup Hajduk Split: Silic; Hrgovic, Raci, Maresic, Acapandie; Fayad, Del Moral; Sanyang, Dali, Soticek; Sego
Probable lineup Ajax: Not fully confirmed at time of publication; expected core: Baas, Bouwman, Rosa; Brandt, Mokio, Klaassen; Ouzane, Arokodare, Edvardsen
Free Football Prediction: Hajduk Split vs Ajax
Our prediction: Ajax to win (odds around 1.95)
Hajduk’s home record deserves respect, and they’ll score here more often than not. But six away games, six results without defeat and at least two goals in each tells you everything you need to know about how Ajax travel this season.
The hosts’ defensive fragility under pressure showed in both legs against Rakow, and they were beaten 3-0 at Rijeka not long ago. Against an Ajax attack that has scored first in six of its last seven, the early goal is more likely to go to the visitors.
Dolberg’s absence hurts, and Ajax’s own defence is leaky. But the quality gap across the pitch is still significant. At around 1.95, the away win is the pick, with goals at both ends a strong secondary angle.
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