- 1 FC Thun vs Hearts: 4-1 down on Sunday, 5-4 winners by the 96th minute
- 2 FC Thun: four home games, four defeats, and no clean sheet in ten
- 3 Hearts: 7-1 at Celtic, 2-2 with Rangers, and a Hampden loss on Sunday
- 4 Free Conference League Prediction: FC Thun vs Hearts
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
FC Thun vs Hearts: 4-1 down on Sunday, 5-4 winners by the 96th minute
Thun were 4-1 down at Lausanne with 20 minutes left on Sunday and won 5-4. Brighton Labeau scored twice, the second of them six minutes into stoppage time, and a Karim Sow own goal helped turn a lost evening into three points.
That result isn’t a Thun performance I’d want to copy into a coaching manual. It took nine goals, a run of defensive errors at both ends and a side bottom of the table to produce it. It did lift the Swiss champions seven points clear of Lausanne.
Thursday’s opponents had a worse weekend. Hearts lost 2-1 to Hibernian in the Scottish League Cup semi-final on Sunday, which means a trip to Switzerland with a derby defeat at Hampden still fresh and a short turnaround to the game.
Kick-off is 17:45 UK time on Thursday 5 November, in the third round of the Conference League league phase. Thun are 32nd of 36 after two defeats and no goals. Hearts are 28th with one point from a 1-1 home draw with Nordsjaelland and a 2-0 loss at Trabzonspor.
These clubs have no previous meetings on record. The market can’t split them by much: Thun 2.40, the draw 3.55, Hearts 2.80, and that’s why I’ve gone looking at goals rather than a winner.
FC Thun: four home games, four defeats, and no clean sheet in ten 
Thun’s last ten matches have brought two wins, one draw and seven defeats. Four of those games were at home and all four were lost, with 2.25 goals conceded per game in them.
Across the same ten, they haven’t kept a single clean sheet. They’ve let in 2.40 a game overall and 2.50 on the road, and Sunday’s four at Lausanne fit that line exactly.
Europe has been a different problem. Thun lost 1-0 at Twente on 15 October and 1-0 at home to Hajduk Split a week later, with de Almeida scoring after 17 minutes, so they’re still looking for a first goal in this phase.
Their European summer was far rougher. Lech Poznan beat them 7-0 away on 20 August, and a 2-2 draw in the return left a 9-2 aggregate defeat in Europa League qualifying.
Goals do come from somewhere. Thun average 1.70 a game over ten matches and 1.66 expected goals, and Labeau’s two at Lausanne give them a forward with some confidence. A home date with Basel follows three days after this one, so some rotation is possible.
Scoring hasn’t been the trouble on the road: 2.17 goals a game across six trips, against 1.00 in front of their own fans. Half of those home games passed without a goal, which is the one number that argues against my pick. Thun are only seven points above the bottom of the Swiss table, so Basel on Sunday matters at least as much as this.
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Hearts: 7-1 at Celtic, 2-2 with Rangers, and a Hampden loss on Sunday 
Hearts have played six times since 15 October and the scores explain the season. They drew 1-1 with Nordsjaelland, lost 7-1 at Celtic, lost 2-0 at Trabzonspor, won 2-0 at Motherwell, drew 2-2 with Rangers and lost 2-1 to Hibernian.
That’s 21 goals in six matches, and five of the six had three or more. Their last ten games average 3.40 goals, with 1.70 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Away from Tynecastle the back line gives up 2.00 a game over that stretch, while the attack scores 1.33. I’m not convinced by any side conceding at that rate on a Thursday night after a cup semi-final.
At Trabzonspor they weren’t overrun. Mohamed Salah scored a 32nd-minute penalty and Dju Franculino added a second on 58 minutes, but Malachi Fagan-Walcott hit the post and Trabzonspor finished with ten men.
Availability is the concern. Local reporting has put ten players out in recent days, and the squad has played three times since 25 October. Expected goals still lean their way, with 1.62 for and 1.29 against across ten games, better than Thun’s numbers at the back.
Hearts score 2.25 a game at home and 1.33 away, with clean sheets in three of their last ten. Both teams have scored in six of those ten. Their one Conference League point came at home on the opening night, and they’ve still to score away in this phase.
Probable lineup FC Thun: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Hearts: Not announced at time of publication
Free Conference League Prediction: FC Thun vs Hearts
Our prediction: Over 3.5 goals (2.25)
Thun’s last ten matches have averaged 4.10 goals and Hearts’ 3.40. Thun have no clean sheet in that run, and Hearts concede 2.00 a game away from home.
The case against is simple enough. Thun haven’t scored in two league-phase games, and both finished 1-0. I’d still weigh Sunday’s nine goals and the 21 in Hearts’ last six far above two narrow nights against sharper European opposition.
I’d back Over 3.5 goals at 2.25 rather than pick between two sides priced this closely. Both need a first win in the phase, neither defence has given a reason for trust since the start of October, and Thun’s win at Lausanne came from a game that reached nine.
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