- 1 Falkirk vs Kilmarnock: the division’s leakiest defence visits a ground where it hasn’t won since 2009-10
- 2 Falkirk: five 2-1 scorelines in seven games and four league goals from Murrell
- 3 Kilmarnock: 20 goals conceded in nine games and two clean sheets, both away from home
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Falkirk vs Kilmarnock
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Falkirk vs Kilmarnock: the division’s leakiest defence visits a ground where it hasn’t won since 2009-10 
Kilmarnock have conceded 20 league goals in nine matches, three more than any other side in the Scottish Premiership. On Saturday they travel to Falkirk, where their last win was a 1-0 victory in the 2009-10 season.
Kick-off at the Falkirk Community Stadium is 15:00 UK time, in the tenth round of the league season. A single point separates the two clubs: Falkirk are ninth on nine points, Kilmarnock 11th on eight, with Hibernian now bottom after last weekend.
Falkirk have won the last three meetings, including a 5-1 home win in February. Kilmarnock have failed to beat them on any of their last four visits to this ground.
Both sides come in off wins. Falkirk won 2-1 at Hibernian, with Jacob Murrell scoring twice, and Kilmarnock came from 2-1 down to beat Motherwell 3-2 thanks to a Greg Kiltie brace.
Falkirk’s results have been tight all autumn. Five of their last seven games have finished 2-1, and they’ve let a lead slip in three of their last five.
The market makes Falkirk favourites at 1.83, with the draw and an away win both priced at 3.80. We think the gap in defensive numbers justifies that order, and we’re siding with the hosts.
Falkirk: five 2-1 scorelines in seven games and four league goals from Murrell 
Jacob Murrell has four league goals this season, two of them at Easter Road last weekend. The American striker leads the line on his own in John McGlynn’s 4-2-3-1, with Ethan Ross, Krauhaus and Eames behind him.
Falkirk’s last six league games read: a 2-1 home defeat to Rangers, a 1-1 draw at Dundee United, a 2-1 win over Hearts, a 1-1 draw at St Johnstone, a 2-1 home loss to Dundee and the 2-1 win at Hibernian. Not one of those matches was decided by more than a goal.
That pattern cuts both ways. McGlynn’s side have lost three league matches this season in which both teams scored, and the leads they’ve given away in recent weeks explain why they’re ninth rather than in the top half.
Across nine league games they’ve scored nine and conceded 12. Against a visiting defence that has let in 20, the onus is on the three behind Murrell to turn possession into clear chances.
Ethan Laidlaw (ankle) and Joe Gardner (thigh) are expected to miss out, and Aodhan Doherty is likely to be absent with a foot problem. Keelan Adams and Aidan Nesbitt have yet to play this season. Ross should be available after withdrawing last week, while McGlynn has to choose between Scott Tanser and Leon McCann at left-back.
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Kilmarnock: 20 goals conceded in nine games and two clean sheets, both away from home 
Neil McCann’s side moved off the bottom of the table with last weekend’s 3-2 win over Motherwell. Kiltie scored twice and Tyreece John-Jules got his first goal of the season after Kilmarnock had trailed 2-1.
Their last six league games: a 1-0 home defeat to St Mirren, a 0-0 draw at Aberdeen, a 1-0 win at Hibernian, a 1-1 draw with Hearts, a 3-1 loss at Rangers and the Motherwell win. In between, they went out of the League Cup at the quarter-final stage on penalties to Aberdeen after a 1-1 draw.
Both clean sheets in that league run came on the road, at Pittodrie and Easter Road. The wider numbers are less kind: ten scored, 20 conceded, a goal difference of minus ten after nine rounds.
Set-pieces are another worry. Kilmarnock concede an average of 8.5 corners per away game, which gives a Falkirk side that has struggled to create from open play another route to goal.
Goalkeeper Maksymilian Stryjek (knee) is the only confirmed absentee. Robbie Deas is back in the matchday squad but hasn’t played yet, Djenairo Daniels returns from suspension and Bailey Rice is carrying a knock, with Jamie Brandon in line to start after his showing off the bench against Motherwell.
Probable lineup Falkirk: Bain; Strain, Neilson, Henderson, Tanser; Spencer, Barbrook; Ross, Krauhaus, Eames; Murrell
Probable lineup Kilmarnock: Ferrie; Kamara, McCarthy, Stanger, Schjonning-Larsen; Rice, Lowery; Ring, John-Jules, Kiltie; Hugill
Free Football Prediction: Falkirk vs Kilmarnock
Our prediction: Falkirk to win at 1.83
Falkirk have won the last three meetings, Kilmarnock haven’t won at this ground since 2009-10, and the visitors have conceded eight more league goals than their hosts this season. Those three numbers all point the same way.
We accept the risks. Falkirk have given away leads in three of their last five games, and Kilmarnock’s comeback against Motherwell shows they can score when chasing a match. A draw at 3.80 is the outcome we’d fear most.
Five of Falkirk’s last seven matches have ended 2-1, and a one-goal home win is the result we expect again. At 1.83, Falkirk to win is the pick, with Murrell the player most likely to decide it.
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