- 1 Bolton Wanderers vs Middlesbrough: nine straight wins for Boro in this fixture, and a defence that keeps conceding
- 2 Bolton Wanderers: ten points from five, but three home defeats in four
- 3 Middlesbrough: unbeaten in nine and scoring every week, with two clean sheets all season
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Bolton Wanderers vs Middlesbrough
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Bolton Wanderers vs Middlesbrough: nine straight wins for Boro in this fixture, and a defence that keeps conceding 
Middlesbrough have won each of the last nine competitive meetings with Bolton Wanderers, a run that stretches back to August 2014. Bolton’s most recent win in the fixture came in a Championship home game in April 2013.
The two sides meet on Friday night at the Toughsheet Community Stadium, kick-off 20:00 UK time, in the 12th round of the Championship. The table puts them a long way apart. Middlesbrough are third on 22 points, one behind the leaders, while Bolton are 15th on 14 points and six clear of the relegation places.
Kim Hellberg’s side haven’t lost a league game in nine (five wins, four draws) and they’ve scored in every Championship match this season. That’s 22 goals from 11 games, built on control of the ball: their average possession is 59.6%.
We wouldn’t read this as a simple away win, though. Middlesbrough have conceded at least twice in six of their last seven competitive matches, and five of their last six games have produced more than 3.5 goals. They’ve kept two league clean sheets all season.
Bolton are back in the second tier after a seven-year absence and have taken ten points from their last five matches. Steven Schumacher’s concern is home form: three defeats in the last four at the Toughsheet, and seven goals conceded in five home league games.
Our angle sits on the goals market rather than the result. Both defences have given the attacks they face this week reasons to expect chances.
Bolton Wanderers: ten points from five, but three home defeats in four 
Bolton’s last outing was a 0-0 draw at Southampton, only their third clean sheet of the campaign. Lewis Brunt was named man of the match at St Mary’s and should keep his place next to captain Eoin Toal at centre-back.
Before that came a 3-1 win at Wolves and a 4-3 victory at Norwich. Away from home, Schumacher’s side have scored freely against clubs with far bigger budgets.
The home record reads differently. Bolton have won two of five league games at the Toughsheet and lost the other three, including a 2-1 defeat to Stoke and a 3-2 loss to West Ham. They’ve scored in each of their last three home games, but they’ve also conceded in two of them.
Across 11 matches they’ve scored 15 and let in 18. Sam Dalby leads the scoring with four league goals, and he’s the obvious outlet if Middlesbrough’s full-backs push as high as they usually do.
Chris Forino remains out with a groin injury, having missed the last five matches, and isn’t expected back until early November. Ruben Rodrigues and Theo Bair are both pushing for starts, which would give Bolton a more attacking shape in front of their own supporters.
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Middlesbrough: unbeaten in nine and scoring every week, with two clean sheets all season 
Will Lankshear has nine league goals and has scored in each of his last three appearances. He and Tommy Conway both found the net in last weekend’s 2-2 draw with Cardiff at the Riverside.
That draw fits a wider pattern. Middlesbrough have conceded two or more in five of their last six league matches: 4-3 against Norwich, 2-2 with Millwall, 2-2 at Birmingham, 3-2 at Stoke and 2-2 against Cardiff. The only clean sheet in that spell came in the 1-0 win over Wolves.
Away from Teesside they’ve been steady rather than dominant. Two wins, two draws and one defeat from five league trips, with eight goals scored and seven conceded.
Hellberg has absences to manage. David Strelec is recovering from a muscle injury, Alfie Jones is out with a calf problem and Rokas Pukstas, signed from Hajduk Split, has played 12 minutes of competitive football since arriving.
The midfield should again be built around Morris and Berhalter, with Cozier-Duberry and Conway supporting Lankshear. Boro have averaged 59.6% possession this season against Bolton’s 50.2%, and we expect them to have most of the ball on Friday.
Probable lineup Bolton Wanderers: Bazunu; Stephenson, Toal, Brunt, Famewo; Simons, Sheehan, Larrazabal, Rodrigues, Gale; Dalby
Probable lineup Middlesbrough: Vitek; Brittain, Malanda, Phillips, Borges; Morris, Berhalter, Cozier-Duberry, McGree, Conway; Lankshear
Free Football Prediction: Bolton Wanderers vs Middlesbrough
Our prediction: Both teams to score at 1.57
Middlesbrough are the stronger side and are priced at around 1.62 to win. We don’t see much value in that number, given that Bolton scored three at Wolves and four at Norwich within their last five matches, and that Boro’s defence has been breached at least twice in five of their last six league games.
Both teams to score at 1.57 covers the two most likely shapes of this match: a narrow Middlesbrough win or a draw with goals. Boro have scored in all 11 league games this season, so the pick rests mainly on Bolton finding the net at home, which they’ve done in each of their last three games at the Toughsheet.
The risk is a quiet night for Dalby against a Middlesbrough side that keeps the ball for long spells. With Forino still missing for Bolton and Boro conceding at the rate they are, we’re backing goals at both ends.
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