- 1 Everton vs Manchester United: a locked-down defence against a red-hot attack
- 2 Everton, too good at the back to last?
- 3 Manchester United, seven goals and two very different faces
- 4 Premier League Prediction Everton vs Manchester United
- 5 First, a quick word on our free picks
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information that can change
- 8 Your role
- 9 Responsible gambling first
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About the visuals…
Everton vs Manchester United: a locked-down defence against a red-hot attack 
Everton have conceded just one goal in their first two Premier League games. Manchester United have scored five in their latest outing.
The two lines meet on Sunday 6 September at 14:00 local time, or 15:00 in France, in round three of the English top flight.
David Moyes’s side opened with a 2-0 win over Crystal Palace, then came away from Bournemouth with a point. Four points, a watertight back line, a tidy start.
Manchester United have lived a very different story. Beaten 2-0 at Hull City on opening day, the club hit back with a 5-2 win over Ipswich Town at Old Trafford, with Bruno Fernandes bagging a hat-trick.
Even that 5-2 needs a bit of context. Ipswich were ahead at half-time before United turned it on completely after the break.
The real question here is simple. Is Everton’s strength down to a genuine defensive unit, or is it the kind of luck that usually runs out?
The table is still tightly packed this early in the season. Everton have four points, Manchester United three, and one win can shuffle everything around.
Both clubs had busy transfer windows right through to deadline day. Everton completed two signings on 1 September, while Manchester United spent heavily in midfield.
Everton are also still unbeaten in the league. Two games, one win, one draw, one goal conceded: the base is solid.
That win over Crystal Palace carried real weight. The Toffees had gone five straight seasons without winning their opening league match.
The club made it clear the attack was the priority. Beto was being linked with a move away just as Everton were working through their options.
Jack Grealish’s arrival changes the wide areas most of all. The England winger had only just got back into the side at Manchester City before heading out on a season-long loan.
Everton, too good at the back to last? 
On 22 August, Everton beat Crystal Palace 2-0. Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall and Thierno Barry scored on either side of half-time.
That ended a long wait: the Toffees had not won their opening Premier League fixture since August 2021.
The defensive numbers look impressive, but the data tells a more mixed story. Crystal Palace and Bournemouth both generated around two expected goals against Everton, for a combined 4.2 xG conceded and only one goal shipped.
On matchday one, Palace created two expected goals from just 0.9 xG after shot. In plain English, they passed up their best chances.
A sharper opponent should find openings. Bournemouth, who finished sixth in expected goals last season, already created enough but failed to convert.
The market did strengthen the attack, though. Jack Grealish arrived on a one-year loan from Manchester City and Ainsley Maitland-Niles was signed from Olympique Lyonnais for about 5 million euros, both in the final days of the September 2026 window.
The 1-1 draw at Bournemouth then exposed the limits of the model. Everton held on without ever really controlling the match.
The club were still hunting for one more striker late in the window. An official bid was sent to AS Monaco for Folarin Balogun on 31 August.
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Manchester United, seven goals and two very different faces 
The trip to Hull City was a disaster for Manchester United. Two goals conceded, none scored, no points to start the campaign.
The numbers from that match told a different story, though. United generated 1.9 expected goals at Hull, but only 0.3 xG after shot: the finishing was dreadful, not the build-up.
Eight days later, the fix arrived. Bruno Fernandes hit a hat-trick in the 5-2 win over Ipswich, even though the visitors were leading at half-time.
Both sides United have faced so far were newly promoted. The real level of this attack probably sits somewhere between the blank at Hull and the five-goal burst at Old Trafford.
The away numbers from last season suggest a bit of caution. United had the second-best expected goals total at home, but only the sixth-best away from it.
Summer business added more muscle in midfield. Carlos Baleba arrived from Brighton in late August 2026 for around 70 million pounds, on a contract running until June 2031.
The contrast between the first two games is stark. Zero goals at the MKM Stadium, five at Old Trafford eight days later.
That 5-2 came from a full turnaround. Ipswich were still ahead at the break before Bruno Fernandes completed his treble.
Expected Everton lineup: Not available at the time of publication.
Expected Manchester United lineup: Not available at the time of publication.
Premier League Prediction Everton vs Manchester United
Our prediction: Manchester United over 1.5 goals
Everton have given up 4.2 expected goals in two matches but have only conceded once. That gap looks too wide to hold against a side with this kind of firepower.
Manchester United just scored five in an afternoon and posted the fourth-best expected goals total in the league last season. The attacking threat is real, even away from home.
The Red Devils score at least twice in Liverpool.
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