- 1 Edmonton Oilers vs Calgary Flames: McDavid’s 34 points against a Calgary team on a four-game win streak
- 2 Edmonton Oilers: McDavid’s 12-game point streak, and a goaltending problem with Levi on IR
- 3 Calgary Flames: four straight wins, Cooley’s form in net, and the league’s third-best power play
- 4 Free NHL Prediction: Edmonton Oilers vs Calgary Flames
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Edmonton Oilers vs Calgary Flames: McDavid’s 34 points against a Calgary team on a four-game win streak 
Calgary won last season’s series against Edmonton 3-1. The Flames took the opener 4-3 in Edmonton on Nazem Kadri’s eighth-round shootout goal, then won 3-2 in December and 4-3 in February, with Edmonton’s only win a 5-1 game in which Leon Draisaitl scored a hat trick.
The first meeting of this season is on Wednesday at Rogers Place, puck drop 8:30pm ET, and it closes a five-game homestand for the Oilers. Edmonton is 8-2-2 and first in the Pacific, but it has lost its last two at home: 7-2 to Toronto on Saturday and 4-3 in a shootout to Detroit on Monday.
Calgary is coming the other way. The Flames lost their first five games, conceding six or more three times, and have since won five of six, including the last four in a row. Monday’s 5-2 home win over Toronto was the latest, with Matvei Gridin scoring twice.
The context behind both runs matters. Edmonton’s offense has been close to unstoppable, scoring well over four goals a game, but its goaltending is thin with Devon Levi on injured reserve. Calgary’s turnaround has come from Devin Cooley in net, who stopped 100 of 104 shots across three starts before Monday.
Both teams last played on Monday, so neither has a rest advantage. The bookmakers make Edmonton a clear favorite, and I can see why, but I think the price on Calgary to keep this close is the better way into the game.
Edmonton Oilers: McDavid’s 12-game point streak, and a goaltending problem with Levi on IR 
Connor McDavid has 34 points in 12 games, eight goals and 26 assists, and he’s recorded at least a point in every game this season. Thirty-two of those points came in October alone. Against Carolina on 22 October, he and Draisaitl each had five points in a 6-5 shootout win.
Draisaitl had 12 goals and 23 points before Monday, and although his six-game goal streak ended against Detroit, he extended his point streak to seven games. Evan Bouchard had 21 points from the blue line before that game. Edmonton’s power play is converting at 35.3%, which is why every Calgary penalty will carry a real cost.
The goaltending is the weak link. Tristan Jarry is 2-1-2 with a 3.72 goals-against average and an .851 save percentage, and he allowed six goals on 31 shots against Toronto on Saturday. Devon Levi, who was 6-1-0, is on injured reserve with a listed return of 9 November, and Matt Tomkins has been recalled as the backup.
Monday’s loss added another problem. Zach Hyman left the game after being checked into the glass by Andreas Englund and is in concussion protocol, likely out for at least a week. Hyman plays on the second line and on the first power-play unit. Mattias Ekholm is also out until around 31 October, although Jason Dickinson is set to return.
Edmonton has scored five goals in its last two games combined, after putting six past Carolina on 22 October. Detroit tied Monday’s game with 1:26 left in regulation and won the shootout through Raymond, and Michal Postava made 25 saves in his first NHL start.
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Calgary Flames: four straight wins, Cooley’s form in net, and the league’s third-best power play 
Calgary’s early season looked like a crisis. The Flames lost 6-1 to Seattle twice, 4-1 to Vancouver and 7-3 to Colorado in the first two weeks, and by mid-October there was open talk about Ryan Huska’s job security. Since a 6-2 loss in Vegas on 15 October, they’ve beaten Carolina 3-2, Minnesota 2-1, Detroit 4-1 and Toronto 5-2.
Devin Cooley is the main reason for the change. He was 3-2-0 with a 2.80 goals-against average and a .912 save percentage before Monday, then made 26 saves on 28 shots against Toronto. Dustin Wolf, by contrast, is 1-4-0 with a 4.85 GAA and .834 save percentage, and one early projection lists Wolf to start in Edmonton.
The scoring is spread around rather than concentrated. Joel Farabee leads the team in points and added an empty-net goal on Monday. Matt Coronato had eight points before that game, Morgan Frost seven, and Gridin now has seven points after his two-goal night.
The special teams are better than the record suggests. Calgary’s power play ranked third in the league at 32.0% before Monday, and its penalty kill was eighth at 84.8%. Against an Edmonton team converting 35.3% with the man advantage, that penalty kill will decide a lot.
Mikael Backlund returned from an upper-body issue and scored against Toronto, centering the top line between Farabee and Coronato. Jonathan Huberdeau remains on injured reserve with a hip problem and isn’t close to returning, and Samuel Honzek is also out.
Probable lineup Edmonton Oilers: Podkolzin – McDavid – Draisaitl; Kapanen – Nugent-Hopkins – Dickinson (projected); Formenton – Michaels – Joseph; Frederic – Dach – Howard. Defense: Mukhamadullin – Bouchard, Shea – Murphy, Walman – Emberson. Goalie: Tristan Jarry (probable). Zach Hyman (concussion) and Mattias Ekholm are out.
Probable lineup Calgary Flames: Farabee – Backlund – Coronato; Sharangovich – Frost – Suniev; Gridin – Pospisil – Strome; Othmann – Castagna – Klapka. Defense: Bahl – Nemec, Middleton – Whitecloud, Kuznetsov – Parekh. Goalie: Devin Cooley or Dustin Wolf (not confirmed).
Free NHL Prediction: Edmonton Oilers vs Calgary Flames
Our prediction: Calgary Flames +1.5 goals (puck line) at 1.69
Edmonton is around 1.52 to win in regulation or beyond, with Calgary at 2.78. I’m not backing the Oilers at that price with Jarry carrying an .851 save percentage and Hyman out. I prefer Calgary +1.5 at 1.69, which wins if the Flames win or lose by a single goal.
Two of Edmonton’s last three home games were decided by one goal or went beyond regulation, and it’s lost two in a row at Rogers Place. Calgary has allowed only six goals in its four-game winning run, and its penalty kill ranks eighth. Last season’s four meetings included three one-goal games, and Calgary won all three of them.
The risk is clear enough. McDavid has a point in every game, Edmonton’s power play is at 35.3%, and if Wolf starts rather than Cooley, Calgary’s goaltending gets much weaker. That’s why I’d take the extra goal rather than the Flames to win outright, but I expect this one to be close.
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