- 1 Colorado Avalanche vs New Jersey Devils: a rested Colorado team, and the Devils on the second night of a back-to-back
- 2 Colorado Avalanche: 4.08 goals a game, MacKinnon at 20 points, and two days of rest
- 3 New Jersey Devils: Gritsyuk’s five-game goal streak and a goaltending question after Dallas
- 4 Free NHL Prediction: Colorado Avalanche vs New Jersey Devils
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Colorado Avalanche vs New Jersey Devils: a rested Colorado team, and the Devils on the second night of a back-to-back 
New Jersey sent Dawson Mercer, Nico Daws, Nick Bjugstad, the rights to Alexander Command and two draft picks to Winnipeg on 23 October to get Connor Hellebuyck. The goaltender hasn’t played an NHL game since 13 April, after being suspended for not reporting to Jets camp, and Sheldon Keefe has only said the plan is to get him involved on this road trip.
That trip runs through Dallas on Tuesday, Denver on Wednesday and Las Vegas on Friday. The game at Ball Arena, puck drop 9:00pm ET, is the second night of a back-to-back for the Devils, with a flight from Dallas in between. Colorado’s last game was on Sunday, so the Avalanche will have had two full days off.
New Jersey arrives in good form. The Devils are 7-4-0, third in the Metropolitan Division, and won three straight before Tuesday, including a 4-3 home win over Colorado on 20 October. They’re 6-2 at home but only 1-2 on the road so far.
Colorado’s season has been harder to read. Jared Bednar’s team is 6-5-1 and has gone 4-5-1 in its last ten, including that loss in New Jersey and a 6-2 defeat in Nashville on Sunday. It still scores 4.08 goals per game, second in the league.
The question, then, is whether a rested, high-scoring home team can take advantage of a tired opponent whose goaltending situation is in flux. I think it can, and the way the first meeting went gives me more confidence, not less.
Colorado Avalanche: 4.08 goals a game, MacKinnon at 20 points, and two days of rest 
Nathan MacKinnon had seven goals and 13 assists in 11 games before Sunday, along with a team-high 48 shots. He has nine points over his last five games. Artturi Lehkonen had nine goals before the Nashville game, tied for third in the league, and six of them came in his last five appearances.
Lehkonen scored twice in the final period of the 20 October game in New Jersey, at 16:47 and 19:55, and Colorado outshot the Devils 21-9 in that third period. The Avalanche lost 4-3 only after Jake Allen made 19 saves in the final 20 minutes. Gabriel Landeskog had scored their first goal, assisted by Cale Makar, who had two assists on the night.
The home scoring has been heavy. Colorado has put up eight against Los Angeles, six against St. Louis, five against Pittsburgh and six against Tampa Bay at Ball Arena. Martin Necas had 14 points before Sunday, playing on the top line with MacKinnon and Lehkonen.
The defense is where things have gone wrong. Colorado is allowing 3.25 goals per game, 19th in the league, and its penalty kill is 22nd at 75.0%. Mackenzie Blackwood is 5-3-0 with a 2.91 goals-against average and an .893 save percentage, and he’s expected to start after Scott Wedgewood played in Nashville.
Colorado’s injury list is manageable. Nicolas Roy is out, and Zachary L’Heureux and Georgii Merkulov are on injured reserve, but none of them are top-six forwards. The power play, at 17.9% and ranked 23rd, needs a better night than it’s had.
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New Jersey Devils: Gritsyuk’s five-game goal streak and a goaltending question after Dallas 
Arseny Gritsyuk has scored in five straight games and leads the Devils with six goals through Monday. He scored the third goal against Colorado on 20 October. Jack Hughes leads the team in points with 12, three goals and nine assists, and he plays on the top line with Gritsyuk and Jesper Bratt.
New Jersey’s shot totals have been strong. The Devils average around 35 shots for and 25 against per game, and they outshot Colorado 41-34 in the first meeting. They’re 11th in scoring at 3.27 goals per game and ninth in goals against at 2.91.
The goaltending decision is the big unknown. Jake Allen started on Saturday against Los Angeles and won 3-1, and he was 4-2-0 with a 3.15 goals-against average and .883 save percentage before that game. With a game in Dallas the night before, New Jersey could split the back-to-back, and that could mean Hellebuyck’s first game for the club, or Remi Poirier.
The special teams are a weak spot. New Jersey’s penalty kill ranks 23rd at 74.1%, and its power play is 16th at 20.6%. Against MacKinnon and Makar on the Colorado power play, a couple of penalties could swing the game.
There are also questions on defense. Seamus Casey is on injured reserve, and there have been availability concerns on the back end before Tuesday’s game in Dallas. The Devils came into that game having won three in a row, but they’d lost two of their three road games so far.
Probable lineup Colorado Avalanche: Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Necas; Landeskog – Nelson – Kadri; Schwartz – Svechkov – T.J. Hughes; Kelly and O’Connor in the bottom six. Defense: Toews – Makar, Kulak – Malinski, Manson – Burns. Goalie: Mackenzie Blackwood (probable).
Probable lineup New Jersey Devils: Gritsyuk – J. Hughes – Bratt; Meier – Hischier – Evangelista; Mantha – Rodrigues – Boqvist; Lombardi – Glass – Brown. Defense: L. Hughes – Pesce, Siegenthaler – Hamilton, Dillon – Kovacevic. Goalie: Jake Allen, Connor Hellebuyck or Remi Poirier (not confirmed).
Free NHL Prediction: Colorado Avalanche vs New Jersey Devils
Our prediction: Colorado Avalanche to win (moneyline)
The moneyline hadn’t been posted at the time of writing, since New Jersey still had to play in Dallas. My pick is Colorado to win, including overtime. For reference, the first meeting was priced level at 1.91 each in New Jersey, and the home team with two days’ rest should be a stronger favorite this time.
The schedule does a lot of the work. New Jersey plays in Dallas on Tuesday and flies to Denver, while Colorado has been off since Sunday. Colorado scores 4.08 goals per game, and the Devils’ penalty kill is 23rd in the league. Whoever starts in goal for New Jersey will either be playing a second night in a row or making a first appearance in more than six months.
I accept that the Devils won the first meeting and that Gritsyuk is in form. But Colorado outshot them 21-9 in that third period and only lost because Allen made 19 saves in it. At home, rested and with Blackwood in net, I expect the Avalanche to get the result.
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