- 1 Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC Nijmegen: Beljo in form at Maksimir, NEC without an away goal in Europe
- 2 Dinamo Zagreb: 14 goals in six matches and a home record that hasn’t cracked
- 3 NEC Nijmegen: four draws in a row, no win in eight, and a long list of absentees
- 4 Free Europa League Prediction: Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC Nijmegen
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC Nijmegen: Beljo in form at Maksimir, NEC without an away goal in Europe 
Dion Drena Beljo took the penalty in the 96th minute against Anderlecht last Thursday, after a VAR review, and scored it. That 1-0 gave Dinamo Zagreb their first Europa League win of the season, and it came on a night when goalkeeper Dominik Kotarski had to make a string of saves and Anderlecht hit the crossbar twice in the space of a few minutes around the 20-minute mark.
Beljo then scored twice on Saturday in a 5-1 win at Slaven Belupo, taking his place at the top of Dinamo’s scoring charts, and he’ll lead the line again on Thursday at Maksimir, where kick-off is 17:45 UK time.
The visitors arrive in a very different state. NEC Nijmegen have one point from two games, a 1-1 draw at home to Levski Sofia, after opening the league phase with a 5-0 defeat in Turin. They’re 27th, and Dinamo are 14th with four points.
The pattern that matters most is NEC’s record on the road in Europe this season. They’ve played three away games across qualifying and the league phase, at Olympiacos, Bodø/Glimt and Juventus, and haven’t scored in any of them. The aggregate is 8-0 against them.
The clubs have met once, in the UEFA Cup on 23 October 2008, and Dinamo won 3-2 in Zagreb. Thursday’s match falls almost exactly 18 years later, and Dinamo are unbeaten in 17 home games in all competitions. I think the gap between these sides is wider now than it was then.
Dinamo Zagreb: 14 goals in six matches and a home record that hasn’t cracked 
Mario Kovačević’s side are second in the Croatian league with 19 points from nine games, three behind Hajduk Split, who’ve played a game more. Their goal difference, 23 scored and 12 conceded, belongs to a team that attacks well and is less reliable at the back.
That was clear in the derby on 10 October. Beljo put Dinamo ahead in Split after 21 minutes, but an own goal from Scott McKenna three minutes later and Sanyang’s goal on 59 minutes turned it round, and Dinamo lost 2-1. Captain Josip Mišić missed that game through a domestic suspension, which doesn’t apply in Europe.
Dani Rodríguez scored a penalty after 16 minutes at Slaven Belupo, Beljo added two before half-time, and Zajc and Galešić completed a 5-1 win after the break. Across the last six matches Dinamo have won four times, scoring 14 and conceding five.
Their season in Europe started with a disappointment, which explains why they’re in this competition at all. They lost the Champions League play-off to Viking, drawing 2-2 at home and losing 3-1 in Norway, after getting past Kauno Žalgiris and Thun. Since dropping down they’ve drawn 0-0 at Hapoel Beer-Sheva and beaten Anderlecht, so they’ve yet to concede in the league phase.
No new injuries have been reported, although Aleks Stojaković’s availability is unclear after he’s been missing from squads for most of the season. Mišić should return in front of the back four, with Beljo up front on his own and Hoxha and Almena providing width.
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NEC Nijmegen: four draws in a row, no win in eight, and a long list of absentees 
Dick Schreuder’s team haven’t won since late August. They’ve gone eight matches without a victory in all competitions, and the last four have all been draws: 1-1 with Go Ahead Eagles, 1-1 at Ajax on 10 October, 1-1 against Levski in the Europa League and 2-2 with Fortuna Sittard on Saturday.
The Sittard game showed both sides of the problem. NEC needed a late headed equaliser from Willumsson to avoid defeat at home, and Sierhuis then missed a chance to win it. Before that run began, Cambuur beat them 3-0 on 12 September. They sit 12th in the Eredivisie with ten points from nine games.
In Europe, NEC went out of Champions League qualifying to Bodø/Glimt, losing 3-1 at home and 3-0 away, and their first league-phase game ended 5-0 to Juventus after Nico González scored on nine minutes following an error by goalkeeper Polster. Against Levski, Reinaldo put the Bulgarians ahead on 35 minutes and Tjaronn Chery equalised on 64.
Chery is the player they rely on most. He has four league goals and two assists, and with Sierhuis and Schuurs on two goals each, there isn’t much scoring spread around the side. NEC haven’t scored more than once in any of their last six Europa League matches.
Emre Mor, Bram Nuytinck and Philippe Sandler are injured, Tobias Storm is ill, Dele Thomas is suspended, and Dušan Tadić was reported injured at the weekend. Tahaui and Isak Hansen-Aarøen aren’t registered for the competition. That’s six players Schreuder can’t call on, before the two who aren’t registered.
Probable lineup Dinamo Zagreb: Kotarski; Galešić, Domínguez, Radeljić, Pérez Vinlöf; Mišić; Hoxha, Stojković, Stojaković (doubtful), Almena; Beljo
Probable lineup NEC Nijmegen: Crettaz; Fonville, Schuurs, Brás; Bischoff, Lebreton, Nejašmić, Kers; Monteiro, Chery; Linssen
Free Europa League Prediction: Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC Nijmegen
Our prediction: Dinamo Zagreb to win (1.70)
Dinamo are unbeaten in 17 home games, have won four of their last six and have the most dangerous striker on the pitch in Beljo. NEC haven’t won in eight, haven’t scored in any of their three European away games this season, and will be without six players, Tadić among them.
The argument against is Dinamo’s defence, which conceded twice in Split and has let in 12 league goals in nine games. NEC have also drawn four straight, so they’re hard to put away completely. But Dinamo have kept two clean sheets in the league phase, and NEC haven’t scored on the road in Europe at any point this season.
At 1.70, I’d back Dinamo Zagreb to win. The home record and the scoring gap between the two attacks are too large to ignore.
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