- 1 Celje vs Red Bull Salzburg: 35th against 21st, and a home side that hasn’t scored in Europe
- 2 Celje: three wins in 11, a new coach, and a defence that played a line it doesn’t practise
- 3 Red Bull Salzburg: unbeaten in Austria, perfect at home, and one heavy defeat to answer for
- 4 Free Europa League Prediction: Celje vs Red Bull Salzburg
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Celje vs Red Bull Salzburg: 35th against 21st, and a home side that hasn’t scored in Europe 
Celje are 35th of 36 in the Europa League table. They’ve played two games, lost both, and the goal column reads nought scored and five conceded, which leaves only one club below them going into Thursday night at the Stadion Z’dežele, where kick-off is 20:00 UK time.
The context matters here, because this is new territory for the Slovenian champions. It’s Celje’s first appearance in the main phase of the Europa League, reached after they lost their Champions League play-off, and last season’s run to the Conference League quarter-finals came at a lower level than the one they’re now facing.
A 2-0 defeat at Bayer Leverkusen in September was respectable, but last Thursday’s 3-0 home loss to Omonia wasn’t, and the coach said so himself. Zoran Zeljković, in charge since he replaced Vitor Campelos in mid-September, took the blame for the result and said his team had made too many mistakes to win any match.
Red Bull Salzburg come in with three points, 21st in the table, and with something to put right of their own. They won 1-0 at Levski Sofia on matchday one and were then beaten 4-0 at home by AC Milan, with 19-year-old Alphadjo Cissé scoring a hat-trick that started after 15 minutes.
The two clubs have never met. On domestic form they’re also some way apart: Salzburg are second in Austria and unbeaten after nine league games, while Celje have won three of their last 11 matches in all competitions. I’d treat the Milan result as a bad night rather than a trend, and the numbers that follow explain why.
Celje: three wins in 11, a new coach, and a defence that played a line it doesn’t practise 
Celje are sixth in the Slovenian PrvaLiga with 16 points from 11 games, eight behind leaders Maribor. Four wins, four draws and three defeats have produced 12 goals scored and 11 conceded, which is a modest return for a side that won the title.
Zeljković’s first game was a 0-0 at Mura on 20 September, after which he was sent off following the final whistle and banned for the next match. Celje beat Aluminij 1-0 with Milot Avdyli scoring on ten minutes, and they’ve also lost 2-1 at Bravo and 1-0 at home to Koper this season.
Against Omonia, Jaden Montnor scored after 16 minutes, Muamer Tankovic added a second just before the hour and Senou Coulibaly made it three on 84. Zeljković admitted afterwards that the high offside line his side tried to hold was something they don’t train, an unusual admission from a coach a month into the job.
Saturday’s 0-0 at Maribor, in front of around 7,500, was more encouraging, although Maribor had two goals ruled out, one by VAR for a foul by Kučys after 21 minutes and another for offside six minutes later. Zeljković’s own assessment of his squad afterwards was that everyone was at 50 per cent.
Svit Sešlar is the one consistent source of goals, with five in 14 appearances this season, although he also put through his own net in Leverkusen. Jošt Pišek is out until January. Over their last ten matches Celje have averaged 0.9 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, with 0.75 points per game at home.
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Red Bull Salzburg: unbeaten in Austria, perfect at home, and one heavy defeat to answer for 
Danny Röhl’s team are second in the Austrian Bundesliga with 21 points, three behind Rapid Vienna, from six wins and three draws. They haven’t lost a league game, and they’ve won all five at home.
The latest of those came on Saturday, a 3-0 win over Altach. Haris Tabaković scored after six minutes, Lindström scored from a free-kick on 73 minutes for his first goal in 1,307 days, and Redžić added a third at the end. Before that they’d drawn 0-0 at Grazer AK with 64 per cent of the ball, beaten Sturm Graz 3-0 on 20 September and drawn 1-1 at Ried.
Tabaković is the player Celje will have to stop. He scored the winner in Sofia on 39 minutes and has six goals in Europe this season including qualifying, plus four in the league. Karim Konaté leads the domestic scoring with five.
The Milan game was an outlier in a run that had looked solid. Before it, Salzburg had conceded one goal or fewer in eight straight Europa League matches including qualifiers. Over their last ten games in all competitions they average 2.1 goals scored and 0.7 conceded, have kept clean sheets in 60 per cent of them, and away from home that rises to 80 per cent.
Nikolas Veratschnig is out until December, Enrique Aguilar until early November, and Justin Omoregie, Tim Drexler and Filip Matijašević are also missing. That’s five players unavailable, yet Salzburg have kept clean sheets in four of every five away games over their last ten matches.
Probable lineup Celje: Leban; Tutyškinas, Širvys, Avdyli, Dukuly; Daniel, Zabukovnik, Sešlar, Verbič, Kučys; Kotnik
Probable lineup Red Bull Salzburg: Zawieschitzky; Schmid, Boma, Zabransky, Morgalla; Kitano, Mazurek, Barry, Baidoo; Tabaković, Vertessen
Free Europa League Prediction: Celje vs Red Bull Salzburg
Our prediction: Red Bull Salzburg to win (1.75)
Salzburg are unbeaten domestically and average 2.2 points per game away from home over their last ten matches. Celje haven’t scored in either Europa League game, have won three of 11 and are playing under a coach who says his squad is at 50 per cent.
The obvious counter is the 4-0 defeat to Milan, which came only a week ago. But Milan are a different level of opponent from Celje, and Salzburg answered it with a 3-0 win on Saturday. Before that night, they’d gone eight European games without conceding more than once.
At 1.75 I’d back Red Bull Salzburg to win. The gap in attacking output, 2.1 goals a game against 0.9, is the deciding factor.
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