- 1 Detroit Red Wings vs Vegas Golden Knights: Gibson day to day, Larkin suspended and a Marner point streak
- 2 Detroit Red Wings: no captain, a hurt starter and a 4-4-1 home record
- 3 Vegas Golden Knights: Marner’s 16 assists and a 69.4% penalty kill
- 4 Free NHL Prediction: Detroit Red Wings vs Vegas Golden Knights
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Detroit Red Wings vs Vegas Golden Knights: Gibson day to day, Larkin suspended and a Marner point streak 
John Gibson lasted one period in Tampa on Tuesday. He stopped 11 of 13 shots, left with a lower-body injury and is listed as day to day, and Detroit hosts Vegas at Little Caesars Arena on Thursday 5 November, puck drop 7:00pm ET.
That absence would matter less if the Red Wings had a settled alternative. Daniil Tarasov came on in relief in Tampa a night after making 23 saves on 26 shots in a 5-3 win in Florida, so he has now played on back-to-back nights. Detroit went 1-1 on the trip and sits at 7-6-3.
Dylan Larkin remains suspended by the club, a decision that dates to 29 October. Marco Kasper, Mason Appleton and Albert Johansson are also out, and Tampa Bay outshot Detroit 13-2 in Tuesday’s first period, with Brayden Point scoring twice inside 14 minutes.
Vegas arrives at 10-5-2. The Golden Knights lost 3-2 in a shootout in Boston this week, and Hertl scored twice in their most recent game.
This is the first meeting of the season between the two teams, and both have been close to level over their last 10 games: Detroit is 6-3-1, scoring 3.2 goals and allowing 2.8, and Vegas is 5-3-2, scoring 3.3 and allowing 2.9.
The price reflects Detroit’s injury list more than that form. Vegas is around 1.72 on the moneyline, Detroit around 2.22, and the total is 5.5 goals.
Detroit Red Wings: no captain, a hurt starter and a 4-4-1 home record 
Gibson’s numbers before Tuesday were an .860 save percentage and a 3.37 goals-against average in 10 games, so Detroit isn’t losing a goalie who had been carrying it. The difficulty is workload, because Tarasov would be starting his third game in four days if Gibson can’t go.
The record at home is 4-4-1, and the Red Wings have won seven of 16 overall. They allowed four goals in Tampa and three in Florida this week.
Lucas Raymond has done the most to cover for Larkin. He has six goals and six assists over the last 10 games, and he scored again on Tuesday. Viktor Arvidsson has eight goals and seven assists, and J.T. Compher had a goal and an assist against the Lightning.
The win in Florida on Monday came through depth. Justin Faulk scored on the power play, Michael Brandsegg-Nygard and Emmitt Finnie added goals, Alex DeBrincat scored as well, and Moritz Seider had two assists. Detroit turned a 2-2 game into a two-goal lead early in the third period.
Detroit is 4-1-0 when it takes fewer penalty minutes than its opponent, and that’s the condition it needs here. Vegas has scored at 3.47 goals a game this season, and Mark Stone has seven goals over his last 10.
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Vegas Golden Knights: Marner’s 16 assists and a 69.4% penalty kill 
Mitch Marner has two goals and 16 assists this season, and he’d collected points in 10 straight games through the Boston shootout. Most of Vegas’ attack now runs through his passing, with Stone and Jack Eichel finishing.
Eichel went into this week with 20 points, seven goals and 13 assists, tied for ninth in the NHL. Stone had nine goals and 17 points before that, and his seven goals in the last 10 games make him the most productive scorer on the team at the moment.
The penalty kill is the weak part of this roster. Vegas stopped 69.4% of opposing chances heading into the week, which gives Detroit a clear route back into the game if the Knights take penalties. New Jersey scored five on them on 30 October and St. Louis beat them 6-2 earlier in the month.
Carter Hart stopped 25 shots through regulation and overtime in Boston and has four wins with a 2.76 goals-against average. Adin Hill is 5-2 in seven starts, with a .891 save percentage and a 2.84 goals-against average, and he was the expected starter on Tuesday, so either could get the net at Little Caesars Arena.
The road record is 3-2-2. Parker Wotherspoon, Victor Olofsson and Kai Uchacz are out, and this team has lost games in regulation by three or more goals often enough this season to be wary of a heavy price. It’s 2-2-2 when it takes more penalty minutes than the opponent.
Probable lineup Detroit Red Wings: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Vegas Golden Knights: Not announced at time of publication
Free NHL Prediction: Detroit Red Wings vs Vegas Golden Knights
Our prediction: Vegas Golden Knights to win (1.72)
We’re on Vegas at 1.72. Detroit is without its captain and two other forwards, its starter is day to day after one period in Tampa, and Tarasov’s workload would be heavy if he’s needed again. Vegas has the deeper attack, with Eichel, Marner and Stone all producing.
The Golden Knights’ penalty kill at 69.4% is the real argument against us, and Detroit’s 6-3-1 run over 10 games isn’t a fluke. We still think the goaltending gap decides it, since Hart and Hill have both been steadier than Gibson’s .860.
If Gibson is confirmed fit on Thursday morning, the case narrows a little, though not enough to change sides at this price.
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