- 1 Detroit Pistons vs Los Angeles Lakers: 38.3 from Doncic against a defense allowing 100.3
- 2 Detroit Pistons: 27 turnovers forced in Charlotte, and no Duren yet
- 3 Los Angeles Lakers: 122.5 points a night, with 17.6 turnovers attached
- 4 Free NBA Prediction: Detroit Pistons vs Los Angeles Lakers
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
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Detroit Pistons vs Los Angeles Lakers: 38.3 from Doncic against a defense allowing 100.3 
Luka Doncic has four 40-point games in the Lakers’ first eight. The latest came on Monday, 42 points and 13 assists on 14-of-24 shooting in a 138-117 win over Miami, and it left him averaging 38.3 points, 8.0 rebounds and 8.1 assists.
Detroit allows 100.3 points a game. I keep coming back to that figure for Sunday 8 November, 6:00pm ET at Little Caesars Arena, because the Lakers walk in scoring 122.5.
The Pistons went into Wednesday’s game against Philadelphia at 6-1, second in the East and second in the league in defensive efficiency. The Lakers went into Wednesday’s trip to Sacramento at 6-2 and fourth in the West, their third game in four nights.
Los Angeles hosts Portland on Friday at 10:00pm ET, then tips off in Detroit 44 hours later, three time zones east. The Pistons aren’t on Thursday’s or Friday’s schedule at all.
Sportsbooks hadn’t posted a line for this game when we filed. I’d expect Detroit to be a short home favorite, and I’d want it at any price near even.
Detroit Pistons: 27 turnovers forced in Charlotte, and no Duren yet 
Charlotte turned the ball over 27 times against Detroit on Monday, and the Pistons scored 37 points off those mistakes. They won 124-91 and outscored the Hornets by 22 after halftime.
Cade Cunningham had 33 points on 13-of-20 shooting with seven assists, and Duncan Robinson made six threes on his way to 24. As a team Detroit went 18 of 37 from deep, which isn’t the usual script for a group built around stops.
The season sample is cleaner than that one night. Detroit has wins of 97-89 over Charlotte, 110-94 in Brooklyn and 106-93 over Philadelphia, and its only loss in the last five was 111-97 to New York. It plays at the fifth-slowest pace in the league, which is how a team averaging 111.9 points still wins by double digits.
Jalen Duren hasn’t played lately because of a hamstring injury, and a return is expected around 10 November, so Sunday may come too soon. Isaiah Joe has missed four straight with a hip problem. Detroit is still pulling down 44.6 rebounds a game with Reed in the middle and Ausar Thompson crashing from the wing.
Ball movement helps too: 27.1 assists a game against 25.4 for the Lakers, with 14.9 turnovers, nearly three fewer than Los Angeles commits.
Thompson’s line against Charlotte was 14 points, six rebounds, four assists and a block. At Little Caesars Arena this group has a record to lean on: 31-9 last season, 2-0 so far this one.
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Los Angeles Lakers: 122.5 points a night, with 17.6 turnovers attached 
The Lakers give the ball away 17.6 times a game. Against a team that just took 27 turnovers from Charlotte, it’s the first place I’d look for a Lakers loss.
Austin Reaves scored 27 against Miami, Walker Kessler had 15 points and 15 rebounds, and Doncic made six threes. Kessler has started all eight games and is wearing a splint on his left finger after hurting it in practice.
On 30 October the Lakers led Golden State 38-15 after one quarter, with Doncic scoring 21 in the first 12 minutes. They lost 112-95. That’s a 40-point swing over the final three quarters, at home.
The defense allows 115.3 points a game, 15 more than Detroit gives up. Portland scored 136 on the Lakers on 27 October, and the two teams meet again on Friday, so Los Angeles lands in Michigan after another game against one of the league’s quickest offenses.
Adou Thiero hasn’t debuted because of left knee swelling, and Ziaire Williams played limited minutes on his return against Miami. The Lakers also rank behind Detroit on the glass, 40.1 rebounds a game to 44.6, which matters more late in a road trip than early in one.
Quentin Grimes scored seven in 23 minutes against Miami, and the scoring behind Doncic and Reaves drops off quickly from there. Giannis Antetokounmpo still had 30 points, 12 rebounds and seven assists in that 21-point win, so the Lakers didn’t exactly lock anyone down on a night they shot the ball well.
Probable lineup Detroit Pistons: Cunningham, Robinson, Thompson, Collins, Reed
Probable lineup Los Angeles Lakers: Not announced at time of publication
Free NBA Prediction: Detroit Pistons vs Los Angeles Lakers
Our prediction: Detroit Pistons to win
I’d back Detroit. Doncic will get his points, and a 35-point night wouldn’t surprise anyone, but the Pistons don’t need to stop him. They need to take the ball from the players around him and keep the game in the 100s, and they’ve done that all season.
The Lakers have the best player on the floor and the harder schedule. A late Friday game in Los Angeles, a flight east and a Sunday 6:00pm ET tip is a hard turnaround for a defense already allowing 115.3, and the 17.6 turnovers tend to grow when legs go.
Duren’s absence is the honest argument against this pick, since Kessler could hurt Detroit on the glass. A home team at 6-1 with the second-best defense in the league, rested, against a team finishing a short turnaround, is where I want to be.
Philadelphia’s visit on Wednesday gives one more reading before Sunday. Detroit has won six straight against the 76ers by an average of 14 points and held them to 103 a game in those meetings, and that’s the same defense the Lakers will see.
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