- 1 Atlanta Falcons vs Cincinnati Bengals: a shutout in Tampa, then Burrow in Madrid
- 2 Atlanta Falcons: 33.3% on third down, and Bijan Robinson at 5.2 a carry
- 3 Cincinnati Bengals: 20 touchdowns for Burrow and 52.9% on third down
- 4 Free NFL Prediction: Atlanta Falcons vs Cincinnati Bengals
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Atlanta Falcons vs Cincinnati Bengals: a shutout in Tampa, then Burrow in Madrid 
Michael Penix Jr. threw four interceptions in Tampa last week, and Atlanta lost 16-0. Joe Burrow threw for 462 yards and five touchdowns on the same weekend in a 43-36 overtime win over Tennessee.
Those two quarterbacks meet on Sunday 8 November at 9:30am ET at the Santiago Bernabeu in Madrid, with the Falcons as the designated home team. Miami beat Washington 16-13 at the same stadium last year, in front of a capacity that runs to 83,186.
Cincinnati is 5-2 and 3-1 away from home. Atlanta is 3-5 and 1-3 at home, though this one doesn’t count as much of a home game. Both teams left on Tuesday night and are spending the practice week in Spain, so neither gets a travel edge.
Neither has much of a history abroad either. Burrow has never played an NFL game outside the United States, Cincinnati has never won an international game, and Atlanta’s only one came against the Jets in 2021.
The Bengals have won all three meetings since Atlanta’s last win in the series in 2010, and they lead it 10-5. Burrow’s only game against the Falcons was a 481-yard, two-touchdown afternoon in 2022.
Cincinnati opened at -4.5 and now sits at -3 (1.89), with the moneyline at 1.62 and the Falcons at 2.36. The total has jumped from 48.5 to 52.5.
Atlanta Falcons: 33.3% on third down, and Bijan Robinson at 5.2 a carry 
Atlanta has converted 32 of 96 third downs this season. That’s 33.3%, and it’s a large part of why a team with 2,585 total yards has only 171 points to show for them.
Bijan Robinson is the reason this offense moves at all. He has 780 rushing yards at 5.2 a carry and four touchdowns, plus 203 receiving yards, and Kevin Stefanski will want to give him the ball until Cincinnati proves it can stop him.
Penix has 1,282 passing yards with nine touchdowns and five interceptions on the season, four of which came on one night in Tampa. Drake London has 624 receiving yards but just one touchdown, and Kyle Pitts has four scores of his own.
The Bengals have allowed 621 receiving yards to tight ends, second-most in the NFL, and they give up 4.8 yards a carry, fourth-worst. If Atlanta has a path, it runs through those two numbers.
The defense has allowed 23.6 points a game and took a hit when Samson Ebukam went on injured reserve with a hamstring injury. Linebacker Divine Deablo, cornerback Billy Bowman Jr. and running back Brian Robinson Jr. are all questionable, while James Pearce could return to help the pass rush. Za’Darius Smith leads the team with 4.5 sacks.
The results before Tampa were mixed: 45-24 at New Orleans and 29-20 over San Francisco, with losses of 31-23 to Chicago and 30-23 in overtime to Baltimore.
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Cincinnati Bengals: 20 touchdowns for Burrow and 52.9% on third down 
Burrow has 2,115 yards, 20 touchdowns and six interceptions in seven games, with a 111.6 rating. Over his last three starts he’s averaging 314.7 yards and 4.3 touchdown passes.
The third-down gap is the number I’d lead with in any argument about this game. Cincinnati has converted 46 of 87, or 52.9%. Atlanta sits at 33.3%. One offense stays on the field and the other punts.
Tee Higgins leads the team with 726 receiving yards and four touchdowns. Ja’Marr Chase has 492 yards and six scores, and Mike Gesicki also has six touchdown catches, so there’s no single target for Atlanta’s secondary to sit on.
Chase Brown has 340 yards on 94 carries with one touchdown, and the team averages 3.7 yards a rush. Burrow will throw this game away or win it, and his three interceptions against Tennessee came in a game that should never have gone to overtime.
Tennessee, a 1-7 team, scored 36 on this group, and safety Kyle Dugger, cornerback DJ Turner II and end Cedric Johnson are all questionable. Boye Mafe has 5.5 sacks, and Cincinnati has 23 as a team.
The Bengals dropped back-to-back games earlier, 30-27 at Pittsburgh and 22-17 to Jacksonville, before winning three straight by 7, 22 and 7 points. Two of those wins came on the road, at Miami and Baltimore, and Cincinnati scored 31 and 35 in them.
Probable lineup Atlanta Falcons: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Cincinnati Bengals: Not announced at time of publication
Free NFL Prediction: Atlanta Falcons vs Cincinnati Bengals
Our prediction: Cincinnati Bengals -3 (1.89)
I’d lay the three. Cincinnati has scored 29.4 points a game and topped 30 in three of its last four, and Atlanta hasn’t shown it can match that. The Falcons average 21.4 points, and they didn’t score at all last week.
Robinson and Pitts are the honest case for Atlanta, and the Bengals’ run defense has earned the criticism. Even so, a team converting one third down in three can’t hold the ball long enough to keep Burrow on the sideline.
The field is neutral, the travel is equal and the roof at the Bernabeu takes rain out of the equation. Strip those away and it’s a 111.6-rated quarterback against one coming off four interceptions. I’ll take the better one at 1.89, with a Falcons offense that has scored 23 or fewer in three of its last four.
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