- 1 Deportivo Alaves vs Valencia: ten points to one, and the script has been flipped at Mendizorrotza
- 2 Deportivo Alaves: one goal conceded in three games and Sivera at the top of his game
- 3 Valencia: one goal in five games and four defeats in a row
- 4 La Liga prediction Deportivo Alaves vs Valencia
- 5 First, a word on our free tips
- 6 No obligation on our part
- 7 Changing information
- 8 Your role
- 9 Responsible gambling first
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About the images…
Deportivo Alaves vs Valencia: ten points to one, and the script has been flipped at Mendizorrotza 
Alaves have collected 10 points from their first four league games. Valencia have just one from five. That nine-point gap says plenty about a side used to scrapping for survival and another that had European ambitions.
Kick-off is on Tuesday 15 September at 20:00 CEST at the Campo de Futbol de Mendizorrotza. The Vitoria-Gasteiz ground, with its 19,840 seats, has been one of the toughest places to go in the league since August.
The Basques have built that total with three wins and a draw, without losing once. They were sitting second after four rounds.
Valencia, by contrast, are still waiting for a win and have lost four straight. One goal in five games sums up the size of the attacking mess under Carlos Corberan.
The historical edge is not helping Los Che either. Alaves have won three of their last four home meetings with Valencia. Mendizorrotza has become a nasty away day for the Mestalla club.
Quique Sanchez Flores has turned a promoted side into genuine irritants, with the best defence in the league over the opening rounds. That defensive base changes the whole read on this game.
For Valencia, the pressure is as much mental as it is mathematical. Lose a fifth in a row and the club could be dragged into a spiral that few teams escape cleanly in September.
So this is really a clash between a team that gives up almost nothing and an attack that has completely stalled. That mismatch is what points the prediction one way.
Deportivo Alaves: one goal conceded in three games and Sivera at the top of his game 
After three rounds, Alaves had scored five and conceded just one. No other La Liga defence was tighter over that spell.
Antonio Sivera was second in the Zamora Trophy race at the time, averaging 0.3 goals conceded per match across three outings. The keeper, who is also captain, has been the main reason for that steel.
The season began with a 3-0 win over Getafe on 15 August, the biggest home victory in La Liga this season. Nahuel Tenaglia scored the first goal of the 2026-27 league campaign there.
Five days later, the Basques came back from Vallecas with a point after a 1-1 draw in front of only 4,280 fans. That is the lowest attendance recorded in La Liga since the season started.
Matchday three brought the clearest statement yet: a 1-0 win over Villarreal at Mendizorrotza, against a club that would be in the Champions League days later. That result kicked off the Basque run.
Mariano Diaz, with two goals by the end of August, has emerged as one of the main attacking options. His output is covering for a team that never wanted to dominate the ball in the first place.
The model is simple: concede very little, stay organised, pick up points in small doses. That approach is tailor-made for a side as blunt as Valencia.
There is still the issue of workload, though, with Alaves playing every three days since the start of the month. Quique Sanchez Flores will have to balance rotation and continuity.
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Valencia: one goal in five games and four defeats in a row 
Valencia have scored just once in five league matches. No side in La Liga has produced less at this stage of the season.
Their first two outings at least offered some defensive control: a 0-0 draw and a 0-1 defeat to Real Betis. They were 17th on one point at that stage.
Since then, the wheels have come off and four straight defeats have piled up. The point taken on opening day remains their only one.
Stole Dimitrievski was third in the Zamora Trophy standings at the end of August, with 0.5 goals conceded per game. The Macedonian keeper is doing his job, but his saves are worth little when the attack brings nothing.
Carlos Corberan does not have a defensive structure problem. He has a finishing problem. That distinction matters when judging this trip to Mendizorrotza.
Captain Jose Gaya and company have gone several games without finding the net. Creating chances is not enough when confidence is draining away with every passing match.
Away from home, the task gets even harder against the league’s most stubborn defence. Valencia need goals to have any chance, and that is exactly what they no longer know how to score.
Three of their last four trips to Vitoria have ended in defeat. Recent history gives Los Che no comfort at all.
Probable Deportivo Alaves line-up: Not available at the time of publication.
Probable Valencia line-up: Not available at the time of publication.
La Liga prediction Deportivo Alaves vs Valencia
Our prediction: Deportivo Alaves to win
One goal conceded in three games against an attack that has managed one in five: the numbers tell the story. Alaves do not need much to turn a match like this their way.
The Basques were unbeaten through their first four games and beat Villarreal at Mendizorrotza. Valencia, meanwhile, are on a run of four straight defeats and still have no real attacking answer.
The recent head-to-heads point the same way, with three Basque wins in the last four home meetings. Form, numbers and context all lean against the visitors.
The call is simple: Alaves take all three points at Mendizorrotza on Tuesday night.
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