- 1 Croatia vs Spain: a wounded host faces the world champions in Split
- 2 Croatia Analysis
- 3 Spain Analysis
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Croatia vs Spain
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Croatia vs Spain: a wounded host faces the world champions in Split 
Croatia and Spain meet on Tuesday 6 October at the Stadion Poljud in Split, in the fourth round of League A Group 3 of the UEFA Nations League. Kick-off is set for 20:45 Paris time (19:45 UK time).
The two sides only met eight days ago, on 29 September, and Spain won that first meeting 4-1 at home. Since then, the gap between the two teams has only widened.
On Saturday, Croatia suffered the heaviest defeat in their history as an independent nation, a 7-0 loss to England in Rijeka. It was also the first time they had ever conceded five goals or more in a home match.
Spain, on the other hand, beat a ten-man Czech Republic 3-1 in Oviedo on the same night. The world champions now have three wins from three in this Nations League campaign, with ten goals scored.
The table reflects that contrast clearly. Spain lead the group on 9 points, England sit second on 6, Croatia are third on 3 and the Czech Republic are still without a point.
For Slaven Bilic, back in charge of Croatia since July, this game comes at the worst possible moment. For Luis de la Fuente, it is a chance to close the international window with a perfect record and move one step closer to the quarter-finals.
Croatia Analysis 
Croatia opened their campaign with a 2-1 win away to the Czech Republic, and at that point there was little sign of trouble. Two heavy defeats later, the picture has changed completely.
The numbers are hard to ignore. Croatia have conceded 12 goals in three Nations League matches, the second-worst defensive record in the whole competition so far.
Their recent form outside the Nations League does not help much either. Croatia have lost six of their last ten matches, a run that would have seemed unthinkable for a side that reached the 2018 World Cup final.
The positive news for Bilic is that the 7-0 defeat did not bring any new injuries. Five of his players, Luka Vuskovic, Marco Pasalic, Josip Misic, Petar Sucic and Martin Pongracic, are one booking away from a suspension.
Martin Pongracic, Lovro Majer, Ante Budimir and Dion Drena Beljo were all left out of the matchday squad on Saturday. Changes are expected after such a performance, and some of them could come back into contention.
Luka Modric, substituted before the hour mark against England, should keep his place and is in line for his 206th cap. The experience of the captain will be needed to steady a group that looked lost in Rijeka.
The head-to-head offers little comfort. Spain have won the last four meetings between the two nations, and Croatia have conceded at least twice in five of their last six matches against La Roja.
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Spain Analysis 
Spain arrive in Split on a run that keeps adding new records. They are unbeaten in their last 41 matches in all competitions, and each of their last ten games has ended in victory.
In the Nations League, De la Fuente’s side have beaten England 3-2, Croatia 4-1 and the Czech Republic 3-1. They are also unbeaten in 16 straight Nations League games, penalty shootout defeats aside, the longest such run since the competition began in 2018.
Lamine Yamal is the main reason Spain start games so quickly. He has scored four goals in the three Nations League matches, including a double against Croatia last week, and he opened the scoring in each of those games.
Against the Czech Republic, Yamal scored in the sixth minute before Rodri and Mikel Merino added the other goals. Both Yamal and Alex Baena came off at half-time, but those changes were tactical and not linked to any injury.
De la Fuente made nine changes to his starting eleven on Saturday, which shows how deep this squad is. Pau Cubarsi was rested for that game and should return to the centre of the defence.
There are a few absences to note. Ferran Torres, Nico Williams and Alex Grimaldo all dropped out before the Czech Republic game and remain doubtful for Tuesday.
Even without them, Spain have more than enough quality in attack. Mikel Oyarzabal, Pedri and Yamal give the side a level of creativity that Croatia’s defence has struggled to handle in recent weeks.
Probable lineup Croatia: Livakovic; Smolcic, Sutalo, Vuskovic, Gvardiol; Modric, Kovacic; Ivanovic, Mario Pasalic, Vlasic; Matanovic (expected, not confirmed)
Probable lineup Spain: Simon; Fresneda, Cubarsi, Huijsen, Cucurella; Lopez, Zubimendi, Pedri; Yamal, Oyarzabal, Munoz (expected, not confirmed)
Free Football Prediction: Croatia vs Spain
Our prediction: Over 2.5 goals (odds around 1.57)
A Spain win is the most likely outcome, but the price on La Roja is too short to offer real value, at around 1.44. The goals market makes more sense here: Croatia have conceded 12 times in three games, and Spain have scored at least three in each of their Nations League matches.
Croatia should react after the England defeat, and a team that needs to show some pride usually tries to attack at home. That approach leaves space behind, which is exactly what Yamal and the Spanish forwards look for.
Spain’s previous two wins over Croatia ended 4-1 and 3-0, and both cleared this line. With the current form of both teams, three goals or more in Split is the logical choice.
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