- 1 Universitatea Craiova vs Getafe: a home side on fire against a visitor that can’t score on the road
- 2 Universitatea Craiova: five wins in a row, five clean sheets, unbeaten since August
- 3 Getafe: 14th in La Liga and one goal from their last five away games
- 4 Free Conference League Prediction: Universitatea Craiova vs Getafe
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Universitatea Craiova vs Getafe: a home side on fire against a visitor that can’t score on the road 
On paper, a La Liga club travelling to Romania looks like the favourite’s fixture. Look closer and it gets complicated. Universitatea Craiova have won their last five matches without conceding a goal. Getafe have lost their last five away games and scored once in the lot.
That’s the backdrop to Thursday’s Conference League opener at the Stadionul Ion Oblemenco, kick-off 18:45 Paris time. Both clubs are making a fresh start in this competition, but for very different reasons.
Craiova didn’t plan to be here. The Romanian champions dropped into the Conference League after losing their Europa League playoff to Ararat-Armenia, 1-0 away and 1-1 at home. They finished 25th in last season’s Conference League phase, so there’s a point to prove.
Getafe are making history. This is their first-ever Conference League campaign and their first European adventure since 2019-20, when Jose Bordalas took them to the last 16 of the Europa League before Inter knocked them out. They earned the trip by finishing seventh in La Liga and then edging Partizan 4-3 on aggregate in the playoff round.
Markets have Getafe as slight favourites at 2.20, with Craiova at 3.00 and the draw at 3.25. We think that’s generous to the visitors. Here’s why.
Universitatea Craiova: five wins in a row, five clean sheets, unbeaten since August 
Filipe Coelho’s side haven’t lost in any competition since the end of August. That’s the headline. The detail is even better.
Their last five games have produced 15 goals scored and none conceded. A 4-0 win over Universitatea Cluj, a 1-0 at Corvinul Hunedoara, a 5-0 hammering of FCSB, a 4-0 friendly win at Slatina, and Sunday’s 1-0 at Csikszereda. They’ve found a defensive solidity that wasn’t there in the summer.
The home form backs it up. Across their last five at the Ion Oblemenco they’ve won four and drawn one, scoring 15 and conceding three. The only blemish was the 1-1 with Ararat-Armenia that cost them a Europa League place.
Assad Al-Hamlawi is the man to watch. Six goals in 14 appearances this season, and he’ll lead the line again. Stefan Bairam, with four in 18, should support him. Pavlo Isenko and Monday Etim are the only absentees, so Coelho has close to a full squad.
Their history in this competition is mixed: nine wins, five draws and eight defeats from 22 Conference League games. But this team, in this form, at home? That’s a different proposition.
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Getafe: 14th in La Liga and one goal from their last five away games 
Here’s the number that should worry Bordalas. In their last five away matches, Getafe have lost every single one, scoring once and conceding ten.
The list doesn’t bear close inspection. A 3-0 defeat at Alaves, a 2-1 loss in Belgrade to Partizan, then 1-0 at Osasuna, 1-0 at Betis and Saturday’s 3-0 at Barcelona. That Partizan goal was the only time they scored on the road in that run.
At home, it’s a different side. Getafe beat Partizan 3-1 at the Coliseum and picked up wins over Malaga and Racing Santander there. That’s how they’ve got to 14th in La Liga with two wins, two draws and four defeats. They grind out results in Madrid. Away from it, they just don’t.
The squad is short in key areas. Christantus Uche and Juanmi are both injured. Enes Unal, who’s scored twice in two European outings this season, should return after missing the Barcelona game, with Abdel Abqar and Martin Satriano also expected to come in.
Bordalas teams are built to frustrate, and that’ll be the plan in Craiova. The trouble is that frustrating the opponent only works if you can nick a goal at the other end. On recent evidence, that’s exactly what Getafe can’t do away from home.
Probable lineup Universitatea Craiova: Popescu; Romanchuk, Stevanovic, Screciu; Mora, Baluta, Cicaldau, Bancu; Matei, Al-Hamlawi, Bairam
Probable lineup Getafe: Soria; Femenia, Djene, Gudelj, Abqar, Mojica; Garcia, Francho, Martin, Satriano; Unal
Free Conference League Prediction: Universitatea Craiova vs Getafe
Our prediction: Universitatea Craiova or draw (double chance) @ 1.60
Craiova come in with five straight wins and five straight clean sheets, plus a home record that’s produced four wins and a draw from their last five. Getafe have lost five in a row away from home and scored once in that run. The form gap points one way.
We aren’t ignoring the quality gap on paper. Getafe are a La Liga side, they’re organised, and Bordalas will set up to keep this tight. That’s exactly why the double chance makes more sense than backing Craiova outright: a low-scoring draw is a realistic outcome if Unal can’t find a way through.
At 1.60, Craiova or draw covers both of the most likely scripts. A home win off the back of their defensive run, or a cagey stalemate. We’d need Getafe to break a five-game losing streak on the road to lose this, and that’s a run they haven’t shown any sign of ending.
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