- 1 Colorado Avalanche vs Detroit Red Wings: six home wins by three goals or more, and no Larkin for the visitors
- 2 Colorado Avalanche: MacKinnon at 25 points and 12 goals for Lehkonen
- 3 Detroit Red Wings: Tarasov’s .927 and a penalty kill stuck at 66.7%
- 4 Free NHL Prediction: Colorado Avalanche vs Detroit Red Wings
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
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- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Colorado Avalanche vs Detroit Red Wings: six home wins by three goals or more, and no Larkin for the visitors 
All six of Colorado’s home wins this season have come by three goals or more: 8-4 over Los Angeles, 6-1 over St. Louis, 5-2 over Pittsburgh, 6-3 over Tampa Bay, 5-2 over New Jersey and 5-2 over Calgary. The Colorado Avalanche are 6-1-1 at Ball Arena, and Detroit visits on Saturday 7 November, puck drop 9:00pm ET.
The Red Wings have been better than their place in the standings. They’re 6-2-1 in their last nine and won 5-3 in Sunrise on Monday, a result that took them to 7-5-3 with 17 points, though they remain tied for the fewest points in the Atlantic Division.
They’ve done it without Dylan Larkin. Detroit suspended him without pay on 29 October after he said he would stop playing while he waits for a trade, and interim general manager Shawn Horcoff has said the club will keep exploring deals. Larkin holds a no-trade clause, and any move needs his approval.
Colorado comes in at 9-5-1 with 64 goals in 15 games, 4.27 a night. Detroit has 46 in 15, 3.07 a night. The defensive numbers are close, which is why Saturday’s game depends on what happens with the two penalty kills and the man advantage.
Schedule matters here too. Colorado plays in Columbus on Tuesday and hosts Nashville on Thursday. Detroit plays in Tampa Bay on Tuesday, hosts Vegas on Thursday and then flies west to altitude, a trip that leaves one day between games.
Colorado Avalanche: MacKinnon at 25 points and 12 goals for Lehkonen 
Nathan MacKinnon has 9 goals and 16 assists in 15 games. Martin Necas has 18 points, and Artturi Lehkonen leads the team with 12 goals, more than anyone else on either roster in this game. Cale Makar adds 16 points from the blue line and Devon Toews 15.
Monday’s 5-2 win in Chicago showed the depth behind them. Jaden Schwartz scored twice, Gabriel Landeskog had his sixth of the season, Nazem Kadri scored on the power play with assists from Makar and MacKinnon, and Toews finished it into an empty net. Colorado outshot the Blackhawks 25-14 through two periods.
Mackenzie Blackwood has done most of the work in goal, at 8-3-0 with a 2.66 goals-against average and an .899 save percentage. He made 21 saves on 23 shots at the United Center. Scott Wedgewood is 1-2-1 at 3.48, and with a game in Columbus the night after Chicago, the rotation between them this week needs watching.
The home record has one loss in regulation, a 6-3 defeat to Toronto on 10 October, and one shootout loss to Dallas. Away from Denver the Avalanche have been ordinary, with losses in Winnipeg, Philadelphia, New Jersey and Nashville, and a 6-2 defeat in the last of those. Saturday is a home game, and that split is a large part of our reasoning.
Colorado’s three straight wins before Tuesday all came with five goals scored. It’s scored at least five in eight of 15 games, which puts real pressure on a Detroit team that has used three goalies already.
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Detroit Red Wings: Tarasov’s .927 and a penalty kill stuck at 66.7% 
Daniil Tarasov stopped 23 shots on Monday against the team he backed up last season. He’s 2-0-2 with a 1.75 goals-against average and a .927 save percentage in five appearances, numbers that have made John Gibson’s 3.37 and .860 look worse by comparison. Gibson gave up five goals on 15 shots against St. Louis on 31 October.
Todd McLellan’s scoring comes from a broad group. Alex DeBrincat has 7 goals and 16 points, Viktor Arvidsson has 8 goals and 15 points including a hat trick against Chicago, and Lucas Raymond has 15 points. Emmitt Finnie has 7 goals, and Moritz Seider has 10 assists with no goals.
Monday’s win came from the younger end of the roster. Carter Mazur scored his first NHL goal, and Michael Brandsegg-Nygard scored 45 seconds after Justin Faulk’s power-play goal early in the third period to turn a one-goal game into a two-goal lead. Brandsegg-Nygard now has 10 points, and Finnie added the empty-netter.
Special teams are the weakness. The penalty kill sat at 66.67% going into November, among the worst figures in the league, and Detroit’s power play at 21.74% hasn’t made up for it. Colorado scored on the man advantage in Chicago on Monday, and with Makar and MacKinnon on the top unit it won’t need many chances.
Road results have been decent: wins in Vancouver and Edmonton, and now Florida, against a 4-1 loss in Calgary. The Wings are 3-1-2 away from home and have conceded 46 goals in 15 games. Larkin has five years left on his contract, and until a deal is done Detroit plays with one less center than it started the season with.
Probable lineup Colorado Avalanche: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Detroit Red Wings: Not announced at time of publication
Free NHL Prediction: Colorado Avalanche vs Detroit Red Wings
Our prediction: Colorado Avalanche -1.5 (puck line)
Colorado’s six home wins have all been by three or more, and Detroit’s penalty kill stopping two of three power plays is the wrong number to bring to Ball Arena. MacKinnon’s line and Lehkonen’s 12 goals face a team playing its fourth game in six nights, at altitude, without Larkin.
Tarasov is the risk. If he starts and stays near his .927, this is a closer game than the home record suggests. Detroit has beaten Florida and Edmonton in the last two weeks, and the Wings have taken points in most of their recent games.
We prefer the puck line to the moneyline because we expect the moneyline to be below our 1.45 minimum. Lines weren’t posted at the time of writing, and we’d want 1.45 or longer here too.
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