- 1 Cleveland Cavaliers vs Philadelphia 76ers: the 29-point lead Cleveland lost, and the East’s best record back in town
- 2 Cleveland Cavaliers: 357 points allowed in three home wins
- 3 Philadelphia 76ers: Maxey’s 11 assists, Brown’s 25 and a foot being managed
- 4 Free NBA Prediction: Cleveland Cavaliers vs Philadelphia 76ers
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Cleveland Cavaliers vs Philadelphia 76ers: the 29-point lead Cleveland lost, and the East’s best record back in town 
Cleveland led Philadelphia 69-40 with 1:12 left in the second quarter on 22 October and lost 114-106. We start there because the two teams haven’t met since, and because the record that followed has only widened the gap between them.
The rematch is on Friday 6 November at Rocket Arena, tip-off 7:30pm ET. Philadelphia is 7-1, first in the Eastern Conference, after beating Chicago 126-107 on Monday for a fourth straight win. Cleveland is 4-3 after a 117-112 home loss to Oklahoma City the same night, its first defeat in this building.
The schedule is even until Saturday. Both teams play on Wednesday, the Sixers in Detroit to open a three-game road trip and the Cavaliers in Oklahoma City, so each arrives with one day off. Cleveland then hosts New York about 24 hours after this game, which gives Kenny Atkinson a reason to think about minutes on Friday night.
The numbers split by end of the floor. Through Sunday, Cleveland scored 121.0 points a game, second in the NBA, and allowed 116.0, 20th. Philadelphia had been winning with defense more than shot-making before this week, holding four of its first five opponents between 100 and 116 points.
Philadelphia has one loss, 106-93 at home to Detroit on 25 October, and it scored 93 that night. Cleveland’s three defeats have come by eight, three and five points, and it led the first two by double digits.
Cleveland Cavaliers: 357 points allowed in three home wins 
The Cavaliers won their first three games at Rocket Arena 125-121 over Brooklyn, 127-125 in overtime over Minnesota and 121-111 over Washington. Those three opponents scored 357 points combined, 119 a game.
The offense has kept the record respectable. Evan Mobley scored a season-high 27 in the 136-111 win in Milwaukee on 31 October, 13 of them in a 48-21 second quarter, and he made 12 of 18 threes through five games. Jarrett Allen had 25 points and 11 rebounds that night for the 250th double-double of his career.
Donovan Mitchell scores around 24 a night and James Harden added 15.8 points and 6.8 assists through the same five games. Mitchell also missed two shots to tie at the end of the 114-111 loss in Atlanta, a game Cleveland had led by 15 after one quarter.
Depth is thinner on the wing. Jaylon Tyson (ankle) and Watson (hamstring) were listed out for Monday’s game, and Tomlin was given three to four weeks with a lower-back stress reaction on 20 October. Mario Hezonja has filled in at 17.8 minutes, 7.5 points and 5.2 rebounds off the bench.
We keep coming back to the late-game record. Sam Merrill tied Monday’s game with a three with 91 seconds left, Oklahoma City answered, and the Cavaliers didn’t score again.
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Philadelphia 76ers: Maxey’s 11 assists, Brown’s 25 and a foot being managed 
All five Philadelphia starters reached double figures against Chicago. Tyrese Maxey had 26 points on 10-of-15 shooting with 11 assists, Jaylen Brown had a season-high 25 with 11 rebounds, and VJ Edgecombe scored a season-high 21, including 11 in the first quarter on 5-of-5 shooting.
Maxey went into last week averaging 28.4 points and scored 38 in Saturday’s win in Charlotte. He had 17 in the fourth quarter of the 114-109 win in Indiana, and the Sixers are unbeaten on the road so far.
LeBron James had 15 points, nine assists and seven rebounds on Monday after missing the Charlotte game for sciatica management. Nick Nurse has used him as a passer more than a scorer, and he and Maxey combined for 14 assists and three turnovers in the first half against the Bulls.
Joel Embiid is the name to check on Friday morning. He sat out Saturday with plantar fascia management in his right foot, then played 25 minutes on Monday for 15 points and eight rebounds. Nurse said the pain can come and go, and a game in Detroit two nights earlier could affect how this one is handled.
The backup center spot is unsettled. Adem Bona fouled out against Chicago, Ariel Hukporti is out for the season with a torn Achilles, and Dominick Barlow was due to see a specialist about his back on Tuesday. Philadelphia opened the fourth quarter on Monday with Wade at center.
Probable lineup Cleveland Cavaliers: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Philadelphia 76ers: Tyrese Maxey, VJ Edgecombe, Jaylen Brown, LeBron James, Joel Embiid (subject to the foot check)
Free NBA Prediction: Cleveland Cavaliers vs Philadelphia 76ers
Our prediction: Philadelphia 76ers to win (moneyline)
We’re siding with the team that has won seven of eight and has already beaten this opponent after trailing by 29. Philadelphia held its first four winning opponents to 116 points or fewer, and Cleveland’s 20th-ranked defense hasn’t improved at home, where it allowed 119 a night across the first three wins. Maxey and Brown are also scoring efficiently enough to punish that group without needing Embiid to carry the load.
Cleveland has the better offense on the season, the home floor and two big men who can hurt the Sixers’ thin backup center group. Those are real points, and an Embiid absence would narrow our margin. We still hold the pick, because the Cavaliers also have a Saturday game against New York to plan for and have already let leads of 29 and 15 get away this season.
Lines weren’t posted at the time of writing. We expect a price close to even at Rocket Arena, above our 1.45 minimum, and we’d check Embiid’s status before placing anything.
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