- 1 Borussia Dortmund vs SV Elversberg: three away league blanks against a home defence that’s conceded twice
- 2 Borussia Dortmund: unbeaten in eight, with five clean sheets against sides below them
- 3 SV Elversberg: 16 scored, 16 conceded and a thin record against the top half
- 4 Free Bundesliga Prediction: Borussia Dortmund vs SV Elversberg
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Borussia Dortmund vs SV Elversberg: three away league blanks against a home defence that’s conceded twice 
Elversberg have failed to score in their last three away league games. On Saturday 7 November, 14:30 UK time, they go to Signal Iduna Park, where Borussia Dortmund have conceded twice in four Bundesliga home matches this season.
The table says this should be closer than that. Elversberg are seventh with 13 points in their first Bundesliga season, and they beat Mainz 4-1 on Friday. I’d want more than one big night at the Ursapharm-Arena before trusting them on the road, because the expected goals that evening were 2.00 to Mainz and 1.48 to Elversberg.
Dortmund sit second, level on 18 points with Bayern Munich and behind them only on goal difference. Five wins and three draws from eight games, 14 scored, six conceded, five clean sheets.
The fixture list gives Elversberg their one real opening. Dortmund host Real Betis in the Champions League on Wednesday, so Niko Kovac has three days to turn the squad round, and some rotation is expected.
The match prices are 1.27 Dortmund, 5.75 the draw and 8.00 Elversberg. That home price is far too short to touch, so the pick below goes elsewhere.
Borussia Dortmund: unbeaten in eight, with five clean sheets against sides below them 
Fabio Silva’s 89th-minute equaliser in Munich last Saturday kept the unbeaten run alive. Serhou Guirassy had levelled at 60 minutes from Carney Chukwuemeka’s pass, Harry Kane missed a penalty after Felix Nmecha handled, and Dortmund left the Allianz Arena with a 2-2.
Home form is the stronger argument. Three wins and a draw at Signal Iduna Park, eight scored and two conceded. Paderborn lost 3-0 here in September and Eintracht Frankfurt went home beaten 1-0.
The attack hasn’t been prolific by the standards of a title race. Fourteen goals in eight is 1.8 a game, and Guirassy and Silva are the club’s top league scorers with three each. Guirassy has been sharper in Europe, where he has four in three Champions League matches.
Kovac’s squad isn’t whole. Lerma (muscle), Konstantelias (knee) and Emre Can (knee) are out, while Prates and Ramy Bensebaini carry muscle problems. Karetsas has been listed with an ankle issue, though other reports have him back with the group.
Wednesday’s game will shape the selection. Maximilian Beier and Marcel Sabitzer both came off the bench in Munich and are the obvious candidates for a start if Kovac freshens things up.
Depth shouldn’t change the outcome much. Against teams below them in the table Dortmund have five wins, two draws and all five of their clean sheets.
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SV Elversberg: 16 scored, 16 conceded and a thin record against the top half 
Friday’s win was the fourth of Vincent Wagner’s league season. Felix Keidel scored from a free-kick after seven minutes, Francis Onyeka got his first Bundesliga goal, Maurice Krattenmacher added a third in first-half stoppage time and Cole Campbell finished with a scissor kick at 90+1.
Wagner had made five changes from the side that went out of the DFB-Pokal in midweek, bringing back Maximilian Rohr, Keidel, Onyeka, Krattenmacher and David Mokwa. That group is his first choice, and it’s the one to expect here.
They’ve been a surprise from the first weekend, when they beat Bayer Leverkusen 3-2 on their Bundesliga debut. Four wins from eight has them in the top half, and 16 goals is two more than Dortmund have managed.
The other column is the concern. Elversberg have conceded 16 as well, kept one clean sheet in eight, and RB Leipzig put four past them without reply. Against sides above them in the table they’ve won one and lost two, scoring four and conceding eight.
Krattenmacher leads the scoring with four and he’s the player Dortmund’s back line has to watch. Two of Elversberg’s three league defeats have come away from home.
Injuries take away some cover. Gyamerah (thigh), Zimmerschied (ankle), Darvich (hamstring) and Seifert (ankle) are out, while Günther and Pinckert are both doubts, which is awkward for a back four about to face Guirassy or Silva.
Probable lineup Borussia Dortmund: Kobel; Gadou, Anton, Schlotterbeck; Ryerson, Veerman, Nmecha, Svensson; Fabio Silva, Guirassy, Sabitzer
Probable lineup SV Elversberg: Kristof; Sirch, Pinckert, Rohr, Günther; Keidel, Poreba; Petkov, Onyeka, Krattenmacher; Mokwa
Free Bundesliga Prediction: Borussia Dortmund vs SV Elversberg
Our prediction: Borussia Dortmund to win to nil at 2.63
Dortmund have five clean sheets from eight league games, and two goals conceded in four at home. Elversberg have drawn a blank in three straight away league matches. Put those two runs together and I’d take the home clean sheet with the win at 2.63 over a 1.27 that offers nothing.
The risk is the Betis game and whatever Kovac changes because of it, plus the fact Elversberg have scored four in their last outing. I still hold the pick, because Mainz gave them space at home and Dortmund won’t.
A 2-0 home win is the score I’d expect, with most of the work done by Dortmund’s back line rather than their forwards.
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