- 1 Cleveland Browns vs Houston Texans: a 5-4 record built on a minus-35 points differential
- 2 Cleveland Browns: five winning drives, a 3-0 home record and a 40.9 QBR
- 3 Houston Texans: 16 touchdown passes, two interceptions and 9.5 sacks from Will Anderson Jr.
- 4 Free NFL Prediction: Cleveland Browns vs Houston Texans
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Cleveland Browns vs Houston Texans: a 5-4 record built on a minus-35 points differential 
Cleveland have scored 161 points and allowed 196. That’s a deficit of 35 across nine games, and the Browns are still 5-4, eighth in the AFC and inside the playoff picture going into Sunday 15 November at Huntington Bank Field, kickoff 1:00pm ET on Fox.
Houston’s numbers run the other way: the Texans are 3-5, yet they’ve scored 209 and conceded 192, a positive differential of 17 points. They started the season 0-4 and have won three of their last four, the latest a 44-22 rout of the winless Chargers in Inglewood.
The betting market has sided with the better underlying profile. Houston are 5.5-point favourites on the road, priced at 1.43 on the moneyline, while Cleveland sit at 2.90 despite the better record and a perfect 3-0 mark at home.
Deshaun Watson faces his former team, and he’s expected back in the lineup after clearing the concussion protocol last Saturday. He sat out the 23-22 overtime loss in New Orleans, where Shedeur Sanders threw for 297 yards and two touchdowns in his place.
We think the Browns’ record flatters a team that has lived on late field goals and one-score finishes. The Texans have the more productive quarterback, the more dangerous pass rush and the healthier scoring margin, and that’s where our analysis starts.
Cleveland Browns: five winning drives, a 3-0 home record and a 40.9 QBR 
Watson led the Browns to a 5-3 start, and he did it largely in the final minutes. He had an NFL-high five game-winning drives before Week 9, but his QBR of 40.9 ranked 28th of 30 qualifying quarterbacks at that point. His season line reads 163 of 249 for 1,806 yards, seven touchdowns and three interceptions.
The deep game has barely existed under him. Sanders completed a 60-yard pass to rookie Denzel Boston and a 64-yard touchdown to fellow rookie KC Concepcion in New Orleans, and those two throws doubled the number of 60-yard completions Watson had produced in his first eight games. Head coach Todd Monken still went back to Watson, according to a report on Monday.
Points have been hard to find in every form. Cleveland average 17.9 a game, and against the Saints neither team scored a touchdown in the first 54 minutes. The Browns were stopped on fourth-and-goal from the 1 when Quinshon Judkins was held up, and Judkins has 385 rushing yards on 116 carries this season, a modest 3.3 per attempt.
The Browns are 3-0 at Huntington Bank Field, including a 13-10 win over Baltimore settled by an Andre Szmyt field goal on the final snap. Szmyt also forced overtime in New Orleans with a 51-yarder, and he’s been as important to this record as anyone on the offense.
On defense, Carson Schwesinger leads the team with 89 tackles and Mason Graham has four sacks from the interior, but defensive tackle Maliek Collins is questionable with an elbow problem and guard Teven Jenkins is on injured reserve with a back injury.
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Houston Texans: 16 touchdown passes, two interceptions and 9.5 sacks from Will Anderson Jr. 
C.J. Stroud has thrown 16 touchdowns against two interceptions, for 2,251 yards on 181 of 282 passing. Five of those touchdowns came last Sunday in Los Angeles, on a day he said he’d been ill all week and woke up with chills.
Tank Dell scored his first touchdown since the knee injury he suffered in 2024, and Dell and Kayshon Boutte each caught a 63-yard touchdown pass. Boutte added a 12-yard score just before halftime that made it 24-9, and Houston had already covered the 5.5-point spread by the break.
Will Anderson Jr. leads a pass rush that sacked Justin Herbert eight times in that win, a career high for the Chargers quarterback, and Anderson has 9.5 sacks on his own this season. Watson is returning from a concussion behind a line without Jenkins.
The Texans are 0-4 at NRG Stadium and 3-1 away from it, with road wins in Tennessee (26-3) and Los Angeles (44-22), plus a 34-31 win over Jacksonville in London settled by Ka’imi Fairbairn’s 49-yard field goal at zero. Sunday’s game in Cleveland is another road date.
There are two names on the injury report to track. Running back David Montgomery is questionable with a groin injury and safety Reed Blankenship is questionable with a concussion, while Nico Collins leads the receivers with 384 yards and four touchdowns.
Probable lineup Cleveland Browns: QB Deshaun Watson, RB Quinshon Judkins, WR Denzel Boston, WR KC Concepcion, WR Jerry Jeudy, TE Harold Fannin Jr.; defense led by Carson Schwesinger and Mason Graham. Final lineup not announced at time of publication.
Probable lineup Houston Texans: QB C.J. Stroud, RB Woody Marks (David Montgomery questionable), WR Nico Collins, WR Tank Dell, WR Kayshon Boutte; defense led by Will Anderson Jr. and Azeez Al-Shaair. Final lineup not announced at time of publication.
Free NFL Prediction: Cleveland Browns vs Houston Texans
Our prediction: Houston Texans -5.5 (1.95)
We’d trust the scoring margin over the win column. Cleveland are minus 35 on the season and scored 6 and 22 points in their last two games, while Houston have put up 26, 34 and 44 in their three wins since the 0-4 start.
The 3-0 home record is the strongest argument for the Browns, and the 13-10 win over Baltimore shows how thin that edge can be. A team relying on last-play field goals needs to keep the game within one score, and the Texans’ 16-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio makes that harder against a defense that will be chasing.
Anderson’s 9.5 sacks against a quarterback back from the concussion protocol, behind a line missing Jenkins, should produce the stalled drives that turn a close game into a six or seven-point Houston win.
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