- 1 Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers: two 6-2 teams on four-game win streaks, seven weeks after a 30-27 first meeting
- 2 Cincinnati Bengals: a 53.6% third-down rate and Joe Burrow at 8.06 yards an attempt
- 3 Pittsburgh Steelers: Jaylen Warren at 5.9 yards a carry and eight sacks in the last game
- 4 Free NFL Prediction: Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
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Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers: two 6-2 teams on four-game win streaks, seven weeks after a 30-27 first meeting 
Pittsburgh beat Cincinnati 30-27 at Acrisure Stadium on September 27, out-gaining the Bengals 411 yards to 352 and winning as a 3.5-point underdog. Joe Burrow fumbled late, and the Bengals’ special teams made mistakes that cost them the game.
Seven weeks later the two teams are level at the top of the AFC North. Both are 6-2, both have won four straight, and they meet on Sunday Night Football at Paycor Stadium on Sunday, November 15, at 8:20pm ET on NBC.
Pittsburgh had its bye in Week 9 and gets 14 days between games. Cincinnati played in Madrid on November 8, beating Atlanta 34-17, and has seven.
The Bengals are 3.5-point favorites at every book, and the total has moved from 47.5 to 48.5. That’s the same spread Pittsburgh got in September, when it won outright.
I think the market has Cincinnati’s offense priced correctly and Pittsburgh’s defense too cheaply. The Steelers allow 18.0 points a game, rank fifth in total defense and second against the run.
The forecast for Cincinnati is clear and about 40 degrees with light wind. Pittsburgh is 6-2 against the spread this season, Cincinnati 4-3-1.
Cincinnati Bengals: a 53.6% third-down rate and Joe Burrow at 8.06 yards an attempt 
Burrow went 24 of 29 for 271 yards and three touchdowns in Madrid, and ran for another. Ja’Marr Chase caught 10 passes for 155 yards and a touchdown, and Tee Higgins caught five, two of them for scores.
A week earlier Burrow threw five touchdowns against Tennessee and ran in the winner in overtime, 43-36. As a team Cincinnati has 2,284 passing yards, 23 touchdowns and six interceptions at 8.06 yards per attempt.
On third down the Bengals convert 53.6% and score a touchdown on 68.8% of red-zone trips. They average 30.0 points and 371.1 yards a game, with a +65 point differential.
The run game is the weak spot: 685 yards at 3.87 a carry, 85.6 a game. Chase Brown is the projected starter, and against the league’s second-ranked run defense, Cincinnati will be throwing most of the night.
On defense Cincinnati allows 21.9 points and 354.9 yards a game, 17th overall and 21st against the run. Tight ends Tanner Hudson (pectoral) and Erick All (knee) and receiver Andrei Iosivas (thumb) are listed out.
Cincinnati has scored at least 31 points in each of its last four games: 31, 35, 43 and 34. Over the same stretch the defense allowed 24, 13, 36 and 17, so the overtime win over Tennessee is the outlier.
The last loss came at home to Jacksonville, 22-17, on October 4. Since then the Bengals have won at Miami 31-24, at Baltimore 35-13, at home against Tennessee and against Atlanta in Madrid.
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Pittsburgh Steelers: Jaylen Warren at 5.9 yards a carry and eight sacks in the last game 
The Steelers’ last game, on November 1, was a 27-6 win over Cleveland. Jaylen Warren ran 17 times for 143 yards and a touchdown, and the defense sacked the Browns eight times with two takeaways.
Warren also ran for 101 yards in the 16-10 win over New Orleans in Paris, so he goes into Sunday on back-to-back 100-yard games, and Pittsburgh’s rushing total for the season, 943 yards, is 258 more than Cincinnati’s.
Warren has 704 yards on 119 carries this season, 5.9 a carry. Pittsburgh runs for 117.9 yards a game at 4.89 a carry, and I’d point to that before anything else against a Bengals defense ranked 21st against the run.
Aaron Rodgers is managing games more than winning them: 1,871 yards, 13 touchdowns, six interceptions and an 86.2 rating. He was 13 of 25 for 172 yards against Cleveland. Pat Freiermuth has four touchdown catches, two of them against the Colts in Week 5.
Pittsburgh’s receiving room is thin: Michael Pittman (foot) and Roman Wilson (finger) are listed out, and DK Metcalf, with 33 catches for 378 yards, is questionable with an illness.
T.J. Watt has 7.5 sacks, two of them against Cleveland, and Patrick Queen had 12 tackles and 1.5 sacks in that game. Pittsburgh allows 305.6 yards a game and has turned the ball over once a game.
In the first meeting, Pittsburgh committed one turnover to Cincinnati’s two and covered the 3.5-point spread as an underdog, and the game went over the 42.5 total. Chase had nine catches for 98 yards and a touchdown that day, so the Steelers didn’t shut him down; they beat the Bengals elsewhere.
The win streak includes a 26-19 overtime win at Tampa Bay and a 16-10 win over New Orleans in Paris. The last loss came 27-24 at Cleveland on October 1, on a 56-yard field goal.
Probable lineup Cincinnati Bengals: Joe Burrow (QB), Chase Brown (RB), Ja’Marr Chase (WR), Tee Higgins (WR), Colbie Young (WR), Jack Endries (TE). Tanner Hudson, Erick All, Andrei Iosivas out.
Probable lineup Pittsburgh Steelers: Aaron Rodgers (QB), Jaylen Warren (RB), DK Metcalf (WR, questionable), Pat Freiermuth (TE), Darnell Washington (TE), T.J. Watt (OLB), Patrick Queen (LB). Michael Pittman and Roman Wilson out.
Free NFL Prediction: Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Our prediction: Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5 @ 2.00
The first meeting finished 30-27 with Pittsburgh out-gaining Cincinnati by 59 yards, and the Steelers now come in with two weeks of rest against a team that flew back from Madrid. Warren’s 5.9 yards a carry against the 21st-ranked run defense gives Pittsburgh a way to keep Burrow on the sideline.
Cincinnati’s passing game is the best unit on the field, and Pittsburgh’s receivers are banged up, with Pittman and Wilson out and Metcalf ill. If the Steelers fall behind by 10, Rodgers doesn’t have the targets to come back.
I don’t expect Pittsburgh to fall that far behind against a defense allowing 21.9 points a game, and I’d take the 3.5 points at 2.00 in a matchup between two 6-2 teams whose last meeting was decided by three.
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