- 1 Chicago Bears vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers: zero completions in Atlanta, and now Soldier Field
- 2 Chicago Bears: 31, 30 and 34 points since Caleb Williams returned
- 3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 168.6 rushing yards a game and a passing attack ranked 30th
- 4 Free NFL Prediction: Chicago Bears vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
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Chicago Bears vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers: zero completions in Atlanta, and now Soldier Field 
Baker Mayfield went 0 for 3 in Atlanta and Tampa Bay won 16-0. No NFL team had finished a game without a completion since 29 September 1974, and the Buccaneers ran for a franchise-record 324 yards to make it work.
Bucky Irving had 170 of them and Kenneth Gainwell 140. Over their last two games the Bucs have run 105 times and thrown 14, which is how a side that was 1-5 has got itself to 3-5.
Chicago is a different test. The Bears are 6-2, have won three straight and host Tampa Bay at Soldier Field on Sunday 8 November, 8:20pm ET, the Sunday night game in Week 9.
The line opened at Bears -3.5 and moved to -6 after Monday’s 34-17 win over Seattle, with a total of 47.5. Chicago is 1.34 on the moneyline, Tampa Bay 3.35, and the spread is priced at 1.89 on the home side.
I think the move was right. One franchise-record rushing day against a Falcons team whose quarterback threw four interceptions doesn’t tell me a passing offense ranked 30th in EPA per dropback can keep up with a team scoring 30 a game since its quarterback came back.
Chicago Bears: 31, 30 and 34 points since Caleb Williams returned 
Caleb Williams has played three games since coming back from injury, and Chicago has scored 31, 30 and 34. He’s thrown four touchdowns without an interception in that stretch and completed 76 of 103 passes, 73.7%.
Against Seattle he went 24 of 34 for 247 yards, and the Bears beat the defending champions. They’re the first team to beat both of last season’s Super Bowl sides in back-to-back prime-time games.
D’Andre Swift leads the NFL with 10 rushing touchdowns, seven of them in the last four games. He scored three on Monday despite averaging 2.6 yards on 27 carries, so he’s getting the ball where it counts rather than breaking long runs.
The defence has quietly tightened as well. Chicago allows 20.0 points a game, eighth in the league, and 86.8 rushing yards, and it’s held six of eight opponents to 24 or fewer. Jeffery Simmons made his debut on Monday after arriving by trade from Tennessee, and he’s the type of interior player a run-first opponent has to account for.
Grady Jarrett (groin) is the injury I’d watch, alongside Kyle Monangai (thumb) and Malik Muhamed II (toe), all three questionable. If Jarrett sits, Simmons becomes more important. Turnovers are the one weak spot: seven lost fumbles, and Chicago ranks 25th in turnover margin.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 168.6 rushing yards a game and a passing attack ranked 30th 
Tampa Bay leads the NFL in rushing at 168.6 yards a game. Before the Atlanta game, Irving had already gone for 106 yards and two touchdowns on 24 carries against Carolina, when Gainwell added 88 on 14.
The passing game has been hidden rather than fixed. Mayfield went 7 of 11 against the Panthers, then 0 of 3 in Atlanta. He’s healthy after missing three games with a thumb injury, but the Bucs rank 30th in EPA per dropback and have six passing touchdowns against seven interceptions.
Emeka Egbuka (foot) is questionable and Jalen McMillan is out, which thins the receiver group further on a night Tampa Bay may have to throw.
The defence is the reason I wouldn’t dismiss them. It’s second in EPA per play, second against the pass and third against the run, allowing 18.9 points a game. Carolina managed 13 and Atlanta none. Yaya Diaby’s knee keeps him out, which takes a pass rusher away from a unit that blitzes 39.2% of the time, fifth in the league.
Williams has a 65.4% completion rate under pressure, though, so sending extra men at him hasn’t been the answer for most teams. Tampa Bay is also 3-5 against the spread, sixth-worst in the NFL. Since 2022 it’s 15-9 as a road underdog, the one number in its favour here.
Probable lineup Chicago Bears: Not announced at time of publication (Williams at quarterback, Swift at running back; Jarrett and Monangai questionable)
Probable lineup Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Not announced at time of publication (Mayfield at quarterback, Irving and Gainwell in the backfield; Egbuka questionable)
Free NFL Prediction: Chicago Bears vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Our prediction: Chicago Bears -6 at 1.89
I’d lay the six. Chicago is 6-2 against the spread, the best mark in the league, and 6-0 against non-divisional opponents. Since the start of 2025 it’s 18-9, and 6-3 as a home favourite.
Tampa Bay’s defence will make this harder than the Seahawks game, and that’s the honest risk: a low-scoring first half with the Bucs running clock could keep it inside the number. But Chicago’s run defence has been a different unit during the winning streak, allowing 86.8 a game, and once Tampa Bay has to throw, the 30th-ranked passing attack is on show.
Winning by a touchdown is the bar. A Bears side scoring 31.7 a game since Williams came back can clear that against a team with six passing touchdowns all season.
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