- 1 Brighton & Hove Albion vs Brentford: third against sixth, and one league defeat for the visitors
- 2 Brighton & Hove Albion: 24 scored, seven conceded and a squad that can rotate
- 3 Brentford: five draws, one defeat and Thiago back among the goals
- 4 Free Premier League Prediction: Brighton & Hove Albion vs Brentford
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Brentford: third against sixth, and one league defeat for the visitors 
Brighton have the best goal difference in the Premier League at +17, better than Arsenal, better than Manchester City. They’ve scored 24 and conceded seven in nine league games, and they’re third with 19 points.
Brentford come to the Amex on Sunday 8 November, 14:00 UK time, sixth on 14 points. Keith Andrews’ side have lost once in the league all season, with three wins and five draws, and their nine conceded is level with Liverpool and Everton.
Fabian Hurzeler’s team won at Manchester City for the first time on Saturday, 1-0, Yasin Ayari scoring the only goal and Bart Verbruggen making seven saves. It was a result that says a lot about where this side has got to.
Thursday is the complication. Brighton play Getafe in Spain in the Conference League at 20:00 UK time, and they’ll have less than three days to get back and recover.
The market has Brighton around 2.00, the draw at 4.00 and Brentford around 3.85. Even with the trip to Spain, I think that’s a fair price on the better team, and I’d take it.
Brighton & Hove Albion: 24 scored, seven conceded and a squad that can rotate 
Hurzeler’s league numbers are built on spreading the goals around. Charalampos Kostoulas, Jack Hinshelwood and Ayari have three each, and Brighton have reached 24 without anyone running away with the scoring.
Six of their nine league games have been wins. The most striking was 5-0 against Crystal Palace on 18 October, and the one blemish in the last month was a 2-0 defeat at Liverpool a week later.
Rotation should help on Thursday. Several changes are expected from the side that won at the Etihad, with Hinshelwood and Georginio Rutter in line to start in Madrid, which ought to leave some of Saturday’s team fresher for Sunday.
The treatment room is busier than Hurzeler would like. Kaoru Mitoma, Stefanos Tzimas, Evan Ferguson, Femi Azeez and Zadok Yohanna are all out, while Pascal Struijk and Ferdi Kadioglu are doubts. Losing Mitoma and Ferguson takes pace and a number nine out of the attack.
The defence hasn’t been touched by that list in the same way. Seven conceded in nine is second only to Arsenal’s five, and Verbruggen’s form at the Etihad was the reason the clean sheet held.
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Brentford: five draws, one defeat and Thiago back among the goals 
Brentford’s 2-0 win over Nottingham Forest on Saturday was only their third league win of the season. Five draws sit alongside those three, and the last one came a week earlier, 1-1 with Hull City.
Igor Thiago scored the second against Forest on 76 minutes, a shot that came off Nikola Milenkovic and in off the bar. He scored 22 league goals last season, so a run of form from him would change this team’s ceiling quickly.
Andrews named a 4-3-3 with Kelleher in goal, Ajer and van den Berg at centre-back, Vitaly Janelt back from suspension in midfield, and Ouattara and Schade wide of Thiago. Ouattara’s cross forced Milenkovic’s own goal on 30 minutes.
They’ve scored 16 and conceded nine, a record that travels well enough to make Brentford hard to beat. It’s also a record that points to draws: five in nine, and the bookmakers have that outcome at 4.00 on Sunday.
Andrews mentioned the fixture list and cup travel after the Forest game, and the win was Brentford’s 100th Premier League match at their own ground. There’s no European trip for them this week, so they’ll arrive with the fresher legs of the two.
Probable lineup Brighton & Hove Albion: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Brentford: Not announced at time of publication (likely similar to the 4-3-3 that beat Forest: Kelleher; Kayode, Ajer, van den Berg, Lewis-Potter; Janelt, Sangare, Jensen; Ouattara, Thiago, Schade)
Free Premier League Prediction: Brighton & Hove Albion vs Brentford
Our prediction: Brighton & Hove Albion to win at 2.00
I’d back Brighton at the Amex. A +17 goal difference after nine games isn’t a fluke, and a side that’s just won at the Etihad and beaten Palace 5-0 has more ways to hurt Brentford than Brentford have to hurt them.
The Getafe trip is the real worry, and a short turnaround is exactly how a draw happens against a team with five already. That’s why the rotation matters: the changes expected on Thursday should mean Hurzeler’s first-choice players aren’t on the pitch for 90 minutes in Spain.
Even money on a team with this goal difference, at home, against a side with three league wins all season, is a price I’ll take. I’d make it closer than the table suggests and still have Brighton winning it.
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