- 1 Celje vs Omonia Nicosia: a home side short on wins against a visitor that’s found its rhythm
- 2 Celje: Slovenian champions sitting fifth and eight points off the top
- 3 Omonia Nicosia: unbeaten in five and carrying a Celta scalp
- 4 Free Europa League Prediction: Celje vs Omonia Nicosia
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Celje vs Omonia Nicosia: a home side short on wins against a visitor that’s found its rhythm 
Two wins in the last six Slovenian league rounds. That’s the record Celje carry into Thursday’s Europa League meeting with Omonia Nicosia at the Stadion Z’dežele, kick-off 18:45 Paris time.
Omonia’s numbers read very differently. Four wins and a draw from their last five matches across all competitions, no defeat since the Cypriot Super Cup final on 3 September, and a 1-0 win over Celta Vigo to open their league phase. The gap in momentum is obvious before a ball is kicked.
The data paints a specific picture here. Celje went down 2-0 at Bayer Leverkusen on matchday one, a result that followed league defeats to Bravo and Koper. Omonia, on the other hand, have scored seven goals in their last two domestic games and conceded one.
Context matters too. This is the first time Celje have ever played in the league phase of this competition, and they only landed here after losing their Champions League playoff to Slovan Bratislava in extra time. Omonia have been through the Europa League group grind before, most recently in 2022-23, and Henning Berg’s side look comfortable at this level.
Bookmakers still make Celje slight favourites at 2.45, with Omonia priced at 2.90. Does home advantage justify that gap? On current form, we don’t think it does.
Celje: Slovenian champions sitting fifth and eight points off the top 
Zoran Zeljkovic’s side are fifth in the Slovenian top flight with 15 points from 10 matches. For a club that won the title last season, that’s a poor return, and it leaves them eight points behind leaders Maribor already.
The recent sequence doesn’t bear close inspection. A 2-1 defeat away at Bravo, then a 1-0 home loss to Koper, then a goalless draw at Mura. Last weekend’s win over Aluminij stopped the bleeding, but one result doesn’t fix a pattern.
Leverkusen away was always going to be a tough night. Still, a 2-0 defeat with no goal of their own tells you where Celje sit when the quality steps up.
There’s some attacking quality to work with. Svit Seslar has five goals in 14 appearances this season, and Armandas Kucys should lead the line through the middle. The problem is supply: Celje haven’t scored more than once in any of their last four league defeats or draws.
Jost Pisek is the only confirmed absentee, so Zeljkovic has close to a full squad. That’s the good news. The bad news is the schedule: five games before the end of October, including Salzburg at home next week.
Fragile at the back, blunt up front. Not a great mix.
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Omonia Nicosia: unbeaten in five and carrying a Celta scalp 
Four wins from five. Omonia’s last defeat came on 3 September, a 1-0 loss to Pafos in the Super Cup final, and they haven’t looked back since.
The 1-0 win over Celta Vigo on matchday one was the statement result. A La Liga side, beaten in Nicosia by a late strike, and it ended Omonia’s long wait for a win in the main phase of this competition. They followed it with a 4-1 win over Krasava and a 3-0 victory at Karmiotissa after the international break.
Henning Berg has a side that knows what it’s about. They’re third in the Cypriot league after five games, and they came through two qualifying rounds against Lincoln Red Imps and Sint-Truiden to get here, recovering from a 1-0 first-leg defeat in Belgium with a 4-2 win at home.
Lois Diony is the man to watch. The 33-year-old striker has six goals in 12 appearances this season, and he’ll be supported by Muamer Tankovic and Jaden Montnor in the forward line.
There are absences. Ioannis Kousoulos, Carel Eiting and Fotis Kitsos are all out injured, and Eiting’s loss in midfield is the one Berg will feel most. Even so, the spine of the side that beat Celta is intact.
Can Celje’s backline handle Diony for 90 minutes? Their recent results suggest it’ll be a long evening.
Probable lineup Celje: Leban; Sirvys, Bejger, Tutyskinas, Avdyli; Ticic, Zabukovnik; Dukuly, Seslar, Verbic; Kucys
Probable lineup Omonia Nicosia: Fabiano; Duverne, Coulibaly, Satka, Balkovec; Andreou, Maric; Costa, Tankovic, Montnor; Diony
Free Europa League Prediction: Celje vs Omonia Nicosia
Our prediction: Omonia Nicosia to win (odds 2.90)
Break down the numbers and a clear edge emerges for the visitors. Omonia are unbeaten in five with four wins, while Celje have won two of their last six league matches and lost three of their last five competitive games, including the defeat in Leverkusen.
The double chance on Omonia sits at 1.44, under our minimum threshold, so we’re taking the outright win at 2.90. That price undervalues a side that’s beaten a La Liga club already in this phase and is scoring freely at home and away.
Celje’s home crowd will help, and a cagey opening is likely. But Diony gives Omonia a finisher Celje can’t match right now, and the form gap is too wide to ignore. Omonia to take the three points.
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